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107 comments on Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Crisis this Winter? (Part 2 of 2)
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107 comments on Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Crisis this Winter? (Part 2 of 2)
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Dear Euan,
If we are rescued by a mild winter, then lower demand by what is left of our heavy industry may pull us through this time. I am more concerned about the next few winters coming up. I would suggest that If we are in a verifiable cooling trend, then each winter will more resemble those of my youth until even collapsing demand outstrips supply.
I would say that there is an increasing probability with each passing year of blackouts. This started in the winter of 2005-2006, and in each year after, the risk increases. We may stay lucky this year, but if luck is the only thing that underpins UK Energy strategy, then ultimately luck will run out.
Conoco in Aberdeen are believed to have sent out letters of intention of redundancy. That is today's big rumour. Where one starts, more usually follow. I suspect (but hope not) that 2009 may be as big a bloodbath in the oil industry as 1986.
Mr Brown must call an election by May 2010. If he does so any earlier (- and I doubt he will), there is a good chance it will be a candle-lit election. But I think it is probably too late now for base load security and I think we will be begging our mainland friends for help by 2010.
rgds and good luck
Dropstone
Hello Dropstone,
Conoco - a mere 5 minutes walk from where I live. The very real threat here in the North Sea is decommissioning - for many installations decommissioning was delayed with rising oil prices - I can't help feeling that if oil prices don't recover quickly then 2009 may see a flood of applications to shut down the rust belt - with Brent in front of the Q. UK oil production may take a sudden step down. But I do think we'll see 100p / therm for gas this winter which may provide some pause for reflection.
In a few years time as UK indigenous supply runs down we will become more heavily dependent upon storage. And herein lies a major problem in that we need to import gas the year round to fill storage. eventually summer and winter demand (and price?) differentials will disappear.
If the weather does get colder- returning to the pattern of the 1970s - then many will suffer living in sub-standard housing, unable to afford heating. Higher heating bills will cause more people to share flats and houses and I suspect we will not need new houses to be built in the UK for a very long time - maybe never - making it difficult to upgrade the quality of the stock.