157 comments on Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
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157 comments on Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
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Rephrased in the form of questions: What happened to the millions of "downstate" Californians? Did they go gracefully into the night, or did a few of them hear about what Mendocino County had cooking? What did the fine folks of Mendocino County do to keep them at bay (i.e. why did the population of the county go down rather than up)? How did they sleep at night?
Indeed, how would farms protect themselves from self-organizing groups of desperate people, many of whom undoubtedly would have military combat and tactics experience? These people could take over any number of farms and become landed 'barons' who could be hard to dislodge.
Will,
You don't understand Mendocino County. It's not like California's Central Valley or the Midwest where people grow row crops on huge farms. It's mountains and valleys with small acreages mostly planted to wine grapes and a few orchards. Further, they are spread out all over hell and back in the county.
Take my area north of Jason's. It cover about 600 square miles and has about 4,000 people. A gang would run out of gas before they even found a few vegetable gardens. And, of course, there are other options to deal with bad people.
Todd
I think you grossly underestimate the determination and reach of large numbers of starving but well equipped, trained mercenaries, armed with high-tech weapons and led by illumintai who are not accustomed to going "quietly into the night". Small farms --and farmers-- are *not* hard to find for people with access to military satellites, night-vision goggles, decent topographical maps, etc. And it's not like existing stockpiles of petrol will simply disappear overnight, or that all weapons/equipment will cease to function the second the Middle East tap is turned off.
If this make-believe scenario really plays out, neo-feudalism here we come. Let's hope it doesn't.
This is why I left the USA and came to live in Australia. At least here there is some sense of community, and the thugs are mostly gunless.
HARMy - Right, let's suppose you're right about these well-equipped militias. Are they idiots? They go round killing all the farmers in CA? Or they go round borrowing all their food, leaving all the farmers to starve? If the militias have any concept of wanting to live for a few more years rather than few more days, then they are going to be very concerned to ensure that those farmers (a) are not killed, and (b) are not starved into uselessness.
The productive people will end up being parasited on by unproductive bosses. As was ever.
Rule no.1 of the post-collapse world, well illustrated in the (otherwise grossly unrealistic) Mad Max movies, is that the most important thing to enhance your survival is to make yourself conspicuously useful.
Oh, please. Robin, there is simply no way to avoid the fact that if there was ever a food crisis in the USA, a horde of starving proles would spread out throughout the country, armed to the teeth, and nice people with vege farms would be killed, or raped and killed, as the case may be, before all of their food was taken. That is why I left the USA, so you can see I am pretty convinced of this. Your fantasies about thoughtful perps who want to groom farmers to provide them with food on a longterm sustainable basis gives them far too much credit.
Mamba: "if there's a food crisis"
->WHEN there's a food crisis
I think Mamba you are considering a different thing from me and "HARM". We were thinking of reasonably-organised armed bands travelling significant distances with plans in mind. You are thinking of desperate clueless city idiots who can think no further ahead than their next meal. Of those latter, one can guard against the majority of them by living well away from cities and towns, and off the beaten track (and without a big windmill saying "we're over here folks!"). The stragglers who get to reach you (from neighbouring villages) will be in no great condition to win a fight anyway.
Meanwhile, when the militia band arrive, you put up your hands and calmly discuss with them. There's not much point in doing otherwise if like me you are not a specialist in combat.
Robin, I don't want to argue with you about The Coming of the Zombies, but I'll simply say that you are grossly underestimating the lawlessness and criminality that would occur if food were to become permanently scarce in the US.
Mamba - I guess i'm orienting my thinking more to the situation in the UK where far fewer people will be roaming around with guns. I expect that the vast majority of people, who live in cities, will not venture very far across country, which is very alien territory to them, and they would soon become exhausted. Most would not venture far from their urban "mother" anyway, hoping for authority to come to their rescue as had always happened ever since their birth.
But I do incline to agree about the catastrophic effect of a shortage, even in the uk. Due to the factor you describe I see a very high likelihood that nice-kind-person Jason's "Little Death" would in reality be a "Little Survival", leaving perhaps just a few hundreds in the canniest survivalist communities.
Thing is, this prospect we're describing scares the hell out of most people, and they will be hard enough to convince that there'll be a food crisis anyway.
So we need to sort out arguments which are very soundly based and reasoned, conceding to the "doomer" side only as a last resort. No-one takes any notice of my warnings to stock food already as it is.
Okay ...
- Most people in America won't go anywhere unless they can drive there. In case of breakdown, the autobound are helpless.
- Where do you get this idea that farmers are peaceniks? I grew up with farmers, people who lived in small towns, rural folk ... who also hunted ... with firearms ... with bows and arrows ... with pistols ... shotguns ... etc. Last person I'd wanna mess with was a country or small town person. Jesse James met his end in Northfield, Minnesota at the hands of ... townspeople:
http://www.civilwarstlouis.com/History/jamesnorthfield.htm
- The idea that trained 'mercenaries' will be sitting around waiting 'til the last second and then shepharding the hopeless is not realistic. Training ='s preparedness. I suspect most 'mercenaries' will have their own farms or, in some other manner be 'ahead of the game'.
- Just as many farmers will be able to protect their farms as there are those without farms.
- In case of breakdown, there will be 'food' (skidloads of 'nutrients' and 'cholesterol', Twinkies and Big Macs) but chaotic delivery. In case of breakdown, authority will do everything it can to maintain itself, the easiest way is to get trucks and diesel fuel and deliver food, either on its own account or via the Red Cross, local governments and emergency services providers or by the National Guard. It's not difficult, the US has a strategic petroleum reserve and the military itself can divert some of its vast store of fuel for emergency use for a short period to assure food delivery. Obviously, this simple process failed post- Katrina. Blame it on Bush, but the resources were available to meet the needs of citizens after that storm.
People have wild fantasies about gangs terrorizing the peasants and making all kinds of trouble. More likely is organized reaction against the government. A possibility is a coup d'etat or constitutional crisis where the in- power government is literally driven out of town by unhappy masses; the 'Million- Angry- Man March'.
Even during the Depression, where poverty was widespread, there was little more banditry than there was during the 1920's. Leaving out Bonny and Clyde, of course. People would steal food and pilfer items they could sell for a few pennies. Armed robbery was rare; most people had little so robbing them was pointless, at the same time the conditions were so desperate that support and understanding were valuable. Most cities and towns had 'Hoovervilles' where homeless hobos, the jobless and migrants camped ... these were not dangerous places since all were more or less in the same boat.
During the Depression, there was political discontent that bordered on insurrection. In the midwest there were groups armed to prevent foreclosures; 'revolutionary committees' and militias readied; (William Manchester 'The Glory and the Dream').
If there is to be fighting, it will be insurrection not robbery.
It's safe to say that there are multiple scenarios possible, and none of us are in a position to say with any certainty which will truly be the one to unfold in the situation Jason described.
I think Steve's got it - I've spent some time among the very poor and hungry all over the world, and it is surprising how docile they are. People in the US are used to being told to wait - some will get angry and cause destruction, but the trained and organized militias are likely to exist more among the farmers than among the urban dwellers.
I think we've all got zombies movies inscribed in our brains - it messes up our thinking. The idea that we'll immediately organize into "marauders vs. pacifist farmers" requires enough suspension of disbelief that it falls in the category of "why borrow trouble when they are giving it away for free." Crime will rise, and people will struggle, but the warlords are a good ways off.
Sharon
I think in some of these posts there is a confusion of two or more quite different things.
Firstly there are people who have grown up in a situation of chronic poverty and hunger (rather than starvation). They aren't faced with an abrupt deterioration, nor with an urgent death-threatening situation. Not surprisingly they are docile as Sharon says above.
Secondly there are oppressively rising food prices in for instance Pakistan, leading to riots, that is protests against the government aimed at lowering of those prices.
Thirdly there is a catastrophic abrupt collapse of the vast global/industrial/corporate/oil-powered/debt-delusions-financed food-supply machine, with accompanying failures of petroleum markets (hoarding), resulting in trucks no longer coming to city food-stores. In this latter scenario, which I consider to be almost inevitable, people will be faced by an abrupt shocking deterioration they never forsaw, and an urgent death-threatening situation. They won't protest against the government (with "food riots"), because the government didn't impose it and can't correct it. They will resort to mugging, looting, ambushing, burglary, and rampaging expeditions. There will be so many of such incidents going on, including by authority personnel themselves, that the authorities will not be in any position to suppress this disorder. By the time it's calmed down, the population will have been decimated (choose your preferred fraction here).
Allow me to point out a rare example of a famine in a modern industrialised nation and it's consequences: the Netherlands during the winter of '44/'45.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hongerwinter
A railwaystrike combined with an offensive that cut the country in half, Germans blocking food transports to the west of the Netherlands in retaliation for the railwaystrike, and an unusually harsh winter, lead to a famine that caused circa 18000 people to die (on a population of 9 million).
There was not a lot of violence; surprisingly little actually. Families trekked long and far to reach farmers, with whom they bartered for food. Most farmers were reasonable, some were shrewd, some were stolen from and some took advantage of the situation (it's been suggested the latter 2 categories overlapped). There were NO violent robberies. There were instances of German-controlled constables seizing food on the roads, and subsequently dumping it in a ditch, and there were examples of hungry people stealing collected food from other hungry people when they weren't looking.
Mostly timid victims, I'd say.
Regarding to how it would play out in a modern day situation, I think it would depend on local culture (vis a vis attitude), gun prevalence, and mainly: the suddenness. If oil *suddenly* stopped flowing, and food suddenly stopped being transported into populated areas, panic will set in, and violence will occur. If it happens slowly (i.e. food harder to get but not impossible), the population will sooner grow morose and discontent, a much more manageable combination.
Comparing a homogeneous, disciplined European population under occupation in 1944 to the melting pot of races in 2010+, all feeling entitled and all armed with guns, is fatuous, to say the least.
An Egregious error! (sorry...)
The name of the Netherlands reflects that fact that it was/is an exceptionally atypical country. Its inhabitants had to literally reclaim their land from the sea, by means of huge community co-operation in building and maintaining a technologically sophisticated system of dykes (a bit like New Orleans).
This physical basis, in which not just their lives but their whole existence depended on that constant co-operation, was reflected in the Dutch being much more co-operatively-minded, less criminal, more environmentally aware. I've put some past tense in there for reasons related to the jihad victim Theo van Gogh and the likewise threatened Hirsi Ali and Geert Wilders. Because unfortunately community-minded people all too often allow their kindness to be abused by parasites.
Mamba: "if there's a food crisis"
->WHEN there's a food crisis
->-> There IS a food crisis.
Have you paid any attention to the news lately? Food shelves can't keep stocked. Farmers see tens of thousands show up to glean from their fields.
The crisis is here. Mostly non-violent. Sorry if this disappoints anyone. Violence makes for gripping film footage, but parents looking for minimal nutrition for themselves and their kids do not automatically turn into Mad Max and Mad Mom.
Hungry and starving people are by definition energy deprived. It generally takes energy to commit violence.
Who knows, but so far, recently and in previous history, most people do not turn immediately to violence when faced with hunger.
This is the basic assumption I made with this scenario and you get a better feel of it when seeing the video of the talk. After some early vigor, people settle into a mode of muddling through, hunkering down, weary co-operation, and anxious waiting.
But which country(s) are you talking about? Here in ukay I've just visited a supermarket stocked full* of affordable food. See my above for what I (and others) meant by a food crisis. *(ok- the sods had sold out of organic mushrooms)
I was talking about the US, but I think it is already more widely applicable. There have been food protests and riots around the world over the last year.
"Affordable" for you may be un-affordable for someone without a job...
Yup, us docile unarmed country folk will just wait around until some gangbangers come by and kill us and take our food! Are you serious? In my neck of the woods even the women have guns and know how to use them. Almost everyone is an avid hunter with bow and/or firearms. Any assholes like the ones in the picture above who would show up during a severe crisis would be "disappeared". Hog food. Roadblocks would insure strangers would not enter the county. Much of the population are ex-military.
Good luck. I'll take my chances in a saner country.
Thanks, I'll need it. We'll all need it.
Errm, excuse me Bruce (nice to meAt you by the way!),
It won't only be city idiots who are desperate for food. It will be some of those rural ex-military hunting experts who also didnt sort out their food stocks and so have to go on the rampage themselves.
Anyone got any advice on how best to cook fresh Californian?
(oops, sorry wrong forum)
That is a good observation, as I know a few that I would be leery of in a crisis. The only redeeming fact is such a small populated county such as mine everyone knows who they are, especially the authorities. I suspect they'll prey on the elderly first.
Since Californians are fruits, nuts, and flakes you would only have to add milk. Sorry, I could not help it.
Just to piggy-back on what Mamba said above:
I spend some time lurking on the "other" peak oil forums. These folks are armed to the teeth. Some seem to be mostly interested in defense from the people pictured above, but I often hear "if my kids are starving, and you have food, you're dead".
Some would probably provide protection to a farmer in exchange for food, but some seem itching to use their stockpiles of ammo. Long range thinking seems to be in short supply in our society, and I don't see how a food crisis would help that situation at all.
BTW, there seems to be a decent mix of urban and rural on these forums. Lots of people want to play soldier.
Not I! I desire to make myself useful and necessary to my rural community with my skills , such as carpentry/cabinetmaking, gardening, mechanics, etc.. I have no desire to engage in gunfights with crazies. But if need be, I will. And I am an expert marksman, especially with a handgun, and more than adequately armed. Hopefully it never comes to that.
Yes, but that wisdom may come from age. It's the 17-25 demographic that I worry about.
The ones who haven't seen combat up close, but have virtually killed millions on their PS3. War is still fun for those that haven't been in it. Now many of them have an SKS, AR-15 or some such, a couple thousand rounds of ammo, lots of testosterone and buddies urging them on. There are also the ones who couldn't leave the war behind.
I haven't fired a gun for several years, but I did enjoy it when I did. I only tried firing a handgun once, and I was horrible.
Must be a collective mental block thingy going on here. The civilian collective will never be allowed to swarm and cause mayhem. The military under the control of the TPTB will though. Ahhh....no one mentioned that huh ? Remember Kent state Ohio ? Why would young adults of roughly the same age as the college students, fire live ammo on unarmed, peaceful protesters, you ask ? The college students had privilage I answer. The national guard kid felt the college kid was a world away in class, (not college class room but social class) when in effect, the college kid was just going to be a little better off, by getting the day shift. The guardsman got the night shift got boots to shine and rifle grease and worked on niteshift and the national guard on weekends.
Why would the already cohesive military allow someone to steal their wheaties or otherwise piss in their oatmeal ? Does the military industrial complex build Berlin or great walls of China, too keep marauders out or their own populace in ?
You think the intelligentsia are safe by being conspicuosly useful ? Did you not see the above concerning Kent State ? The rich aren't safe either, they are obvious targets by any camp, government or marauders. Is Bernie Madoff being guarded from leaving his $7 million dollar penthouse or is he being protected from angry victims ? Only the super rich will be able to afford protection, using the military industrial complex as their guardsmen. Some Jewish college prof with tenure and a nice house and 1 or 2 mill $ in a portfolio hasn't a chance, he's a piker as far as TPTB are concerned., did you miss WWII ?
Playing along too get along isn't gonna fill the porridge bowl either, might as well lick a lawyers Italian shoes in hopes he will treat you without contempt, kissing and hugging snakes, never makes them compassionate lovers.
Doctors will be shot just because, it happens to ambulance drivers and UN workers in the middle east by "The only democracy" right now and today already. Being useful or passive,doesn't gaurantee or increase ones odds not one iota.
Why does everyone think they can escape the splatter of fecal matter when it hits the rotational air circulation device ?
The militaries around the globe are already killing innocents for land and water and resources, its 24/7 and hyped as being about defense from terrorism, have they ever found a dead terrorist under a dead child or pregnant women ? Your all nothing more than a green blob on a forward looking infared camera projected miles away on a LED screen to them, they press a button and see a blur and they all high five each other.
Stocking soylent green seems rather pathetic, doesnt it?
I can't let this slur pass unrebutted.
Nephelim means the ambulances used by "Palestinians" [1] to carry fighters and weapons, which is a violation of International Humanitarian Law (aka a war crime). Use of Red Crescent ambulances to carry weapons has been an issue for years, and UN ambulances have been used to carry fighters.
If you haven't bothered to educate yourself about Pallywood, you have no idea how much of the "crimes" of Israel are manufactured by the Arab propaganda apparatus. Then again, they are just being good Muslims and following the dictates of their Prophet and best example of conduct [2]: "War is deceit."
[1] "Palestinian" as used here is a term of propaganda. The people usually called such are properly called (Palestinian) Arabs, because the autochthonous (Palestinian) Christians are not part of the hostilities, and the (Palestinian) Jews have been ethnically cleansed even from cities named after them such as Hebron. If you refer to pre-1968 news accounts you will see the terms used correctly, but since that time the media have been corrupted in myriad ways.
[2] Other examples of good conduct include the wholesale butchering of the men of the Kaybar oasis and the enslavement of the women and children, for no other reason than that they were not Muslims.
Engineer-Poet ;
The sites you posted, as anyone can see by clicking on them, show it was a stretcher that was loaded into the ambulance and not a rocket.
I will now use Israeli press and Israeli Gov sources to prove the war crimes of using innocent Palestinian children as human shields. The Israeli Gov found the IDF guilty of the practice and sanctioned the further use of the crime....the IDF refused to submit.
http://www.btselem.org/english/Human_Shields/20060720_Human_Shields_in_B...
http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3387356,00.html
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/834937.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4333982.stm
No doubt these unarguable facts will be censored from the cruel light of day here.
A Hamas leader today unwittingly gave away the moral imbalance when he said that it is now legitimate for Hamas to kill Israeli children. I don't think one would ever hear the converse said.
The root of all this is that Islam is distinct from (other?) major religions in that it was founded by a vicious terrorist. The start of Muslim terror against peaceful Jews can be seen in Qur'an 59:2-7 where "Allah" gloats at Mohammed's victorious start of the ethnic cleansing of Arabia. "Allah" "reveals" that it was good that the peaceful (59:2) Jews were made homeless and destitute, that it was a great ingenious (59:2) wheeze to chop down their desert fruit-trees (59:5), and that the personal possessions stolen from the innocent victims properly became the Muslims' property even though they'd done no work for them (59:6, 59:7).
Here's video of Palestinian terrorists using their own children as human shields:
[1] That's what we expect of propagandists for Arab terrorists.
Please delete this off topic crap from the page.