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231 comments on Financial Forecast for 2009, Considering Resource Limitations
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231 comments on Financial Forecast for 2009, Considering Resource Limitations
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Thanks for the reply.
I wonder if the unemployment rate will also degrade in meaning as the underemployed will grow -- an unemployed banker working as a grocery stocker is "employed" officially, but perhaps not in his view.
I wonder if the collapse of the two-earner family may occur as well, as the combination of lower wages and harder work may well push second-earners back home to help save money (clipping coupons, cooking from scratch, avoiding childcare bills, etc.). A single-wage-earner may travel to find work as well, and send money home to the "wife and kids". I can't see a lot of companies paying relo in a worker-abundant market, and moving a household may be an expensive risk just to follow work, but commuting for contract work, seasonal farm work, hurricane repair, etc. might make good sense for some.
"Betting the farm" on timing or even deflation/inflation seems like an unacceptable risk to me (see other comments in this thread). I'm going to sock away cash to the extent possible, and consolidate real-estate (fewer properties with few/no loans rather than more properties with several loans). It's a deflationary strategy, really, but "safe". Beyond that I just want to stay employed -- that seems like the most important "protection" you can have whether markets are deflationary or inflationary.
Highly unlikely any ex- bank worker will get a job as a shelf stocker, as the retail sector will be forever shrinking too. Those people I saw in their last days at Woolworths will never have a job again, I reckon (though I could not bring myself to tell them).
And not just the collapse of two-earner families. The sums will cease to add up. All sorts of households will go bust, start to starve and become ill, and resort to suicide if not dead by other means first. "Wealthy" people will not be exempt from this, as their wealth is a mere figment of imaginations of varying enthusiasm.