There have been comments that the ELM model doesn't properly capture internal demand changes relative to cost shifts as oil depletes.

I wonder if cost and price for oil are in reality moot (no graphs, whether ELM or Hubbert, include price in the model)? If prices are high, exporting countries have money to spend and use more internally, but they also have money to spend on production technology and drilling. If prices are low, then exporting countries have less money to spend and may use less internally, but they also have less to invest in production, and presumably production will drop.

If the effect is roughly linear, then I think the end of exports will happen at the same date regardless of price, only the amount of oil left for subsequent internal use would increase. The curve would be lower and flatter, in essence, but cross the ELM zero point at about the same date.

I know this is a bit more pessimistic than the original discussions, but I guess we can watch Mexico this year and see how production and exports fare with low prices and a slow internal economy.