Hi Kiashu
Unfortunately, because the US is in the POO so are the rest of us including Australia - one of the downsides of globalisation, we all shares the highs and the lows and all financial systems and economies are intrinsically dependent. The US is the cog that drives the world economy and right now that is grinding to a halt and set to rust with little oil left to lubricate it of its own.
They consume 25 percent of what is produced worldwide including the oil and we may all talk about their consumerist attitudes and that the rest of us are more frugal, but truth be told we need them. The next bleak truth is the US economy has run into the brick wall of reality and all the plans for more borrowing to fund economic stimulus packages are just short term bandaid fixes while the - patient is haemorrhaging internally. The same is true of Rudd’s plans here in Australia.
They talk in the US about an infrastructure stimulus package, but in the end where does the money come from – certainly not US banks since they are being nationalised as we speak. So it is foreign money and what if the US starts to default on its loans?? Will the foreign bankers/ countries call in their money.
So to Australia, a third world/ first world nation since we are effectively reliant on exporting our natural resources, which then get shipped to other countries to be turned into goods which we then import. We don’t really have that much of a manufacturing base and although not in the poo up to our necks like the yanks we are probably already up to our knees and the poo is rising fast.
So the Australian scenario is a doubling in unemployment, to around 900,000. This will include large scale layoffs in the mining and resource sector which have already started and then the building sector. This is just starting to happen as the number of new home starts continues to decline. The estimates are half of the current mining sector and a third of real estate agents will not survive this current down turn.
The tourism industry will take a large hit as people worldwide cut back on discretionary spending and in the end we are a long way from most places. Likewise higher education, heavily reliant on international full fee paying students is starting to feel the pinch. Long term the economic recovery when is does come will be a hiccup on the down ward trend of the markets, since by that point the lack of investment in oil and energy due to a lack of investment will push oil prices up again leading to another price hike, probably higher, before another collapse again and so on.
So to reiterate again, if the US is in the POO, the world is in the POO.
You mention again cuts in the mining sector, but despite Big Gav asking you, you've not named where.
Recently I was down in Tassie, we passed through two mining towns, Rosebury and Queenstown. In Rosebury they said that contractors had been laid off but the permanent staff were alright, in Queenstown they're not hiring new contractors but otherwise are proceeding as before.
A halt in growth isn't a recession, still less is it a great disaster.
I don't spend my whole life on the internet ;) References are above in reply to Big Gav.
If you want the next step in the down turn it comes in regard to the support that underlies the finacial sector to some extent eg that industry close to my heart IT. So Microsoft are in the process of laying off 30,000 worldwide and IBM are letting go about 16,000. I have several friends who work for both companies and all that is keeping the Australian jobs at the moment is the fact we are cheap because of the devaluation of the dollar.
So the local IT market is going to be slow and there is already a large drop off in IT vacancies [I can find the reference again if you really want it or if I can be bothered looking]. There are also a lot of Australian IT workers returning home from the UK since that goldmine has dried up with the collapse of the financial sector in the UK. So indirectly that impacts Australia.
I do a lot of reading of newspapers in my volunteer work for ODAC and can't always remember where I found the articles ;)
The mesaage I am trying to get across to you is that if you think we are somehow insulated from this downturn, recession/ depression you are sadly misguided. The effects of globalisation are many and sharing the pain was the one in the very small print at the bottom of the page.
I think a pattern is emerging. US slows down then China slows down then Australia slows down.Five percent growth in Chinese terms is very bad news as the long held internal leadership theory goes anything below 7/ 8 percent growth will lead to internal social instability.
Hi Kiashu
Unfortunately, because the US is in the POO so are the rest of us including Australia - one of the downsides of globalisation, we all shares the highs and the lows and all financial systems and economies are intrinsically dependent. The US is the cog that drives the world economy and right now that is grinding to a halt and set to rust with little oil left to lubricate it of its own.
They consume 25 percent of what is produced worldwide including the oil and we may all talk about their consumerist attitudes and that the rest of us are more frugal, but truth be told we need them. The next bleak truth is the US economy has run into the brick wall of reality and all the plans for more borrowing to fund economic stimulus packages are just short term bandaid fixes while the - patient is haemorrhaging internally. The same is true of Rudd’s plans here in Australia.
They talk in the US about an infrastructure stimulus package, but in the end where does the money come from – certainly not US banks since they are being nationalised as we speak. So it is foreign money and what if the US starts to default on its loans?? Will the foreign bankers/ countries call in their money.
So to Australia, a third world/ first world nation since we are effectively reliant on exporting our natural resources, which then get shipped to other countries to be turned into goods which we then import. We don’t really have that much of a manufacturing base and although not in the poo up to our necks like the yanks we are probably already up to our knees and the poo is rising fast.
So the Australian scenario is a doubling in unemployment, to around 900,000. This will include large scale layoffs in the mining and resource sector which have already started and then the building sector. This is just starting to happen as the number of new home starts continues to decline. The estimates are half of the current mining sector and a third of real estate agents will not survive this current down turn.
The tourism industry will take a large hit as people worldwide cut back on discretionary spending and in the end we are a long way from most places. Likewise higher education, heavily reliant on international full fee paying students is starting to feel the pinch. Long term the economic recovery when is does come will be a hiccup on the down ward trend of the markets, since by that point the lack of investment in oil and energy due to a lack of investment will push oil prices up again leading to another price hike, probably higher, before another collapse again and so on.
So to reiterate again, if the US is in the POO, the world is in the POO.
You mention again cuts in the mining sector, but despite Big Gav asking you, you've not named where.
Recently I was down in Tassie, we passed through two mining towns, Rosebury and Queenstown. In Rosebury they said that contractors had been laid off but the permanent staff were alright, in Queenstown they're not hiring new contractors but otherwise are proceeding as before.
A halt in growth isn't a recession, still less is it a great disaster.
To be fair his comment above was made before my comment.
Chill Dude
I don't spend my whole life on the internet ;) References are above in reply to Big Gav.
If you want the next step in the down turn it comes in regard to the support that underlies the finacial sector to some extent eg that industry close to my heart IT. So Microsoft are in the process of laying off 30,000 worldwide and IBM are letting go about 16,000. I have several friends who work for both companies and all that is keeping the Australian jobs at the moment is the fact we are cheap because of the devaluation of the dollar.
So the local IT market is going to be slow and there is already a large drop off in IT vacancies [I can find the reference again if you really want it or if I can be bothered looking]. There are also a lot of Australian IT workers returning home from the UK since that goldmine has dried up with the collapse of the financial sector in the UK. So indirectly that impacts Australia.
I do a lot of reading of newspapers in my volunteer work for ODAC and can't always remember where I found the articles ;)
The mesaage I am trying to get across to you is that if you think we are somehow insulated from this downturn, recession/ depression you are sadly misguided. The effects of globalisation are many and sharing the pain was the one in the very small print at the bottom of the page.
Kiashu
Developing story as I said, cuts in the mining sector are ongoing.
Miners cut 570 jobs as prices dive Rio Tinto, Oz Metals, Xstrata
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24910931-462,00.html
14th January 2009
Xstrata to cut 150 jobs
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24909981-31037,00.html
13th January 2009
Rio Tinto to scale back expansion plans for Pilbara iron projects as demand falls
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24905258-462,00.html
13th January 2008
Oz Minerals suspends Scuddles mine to save money
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24906373-364...
13th January 2009
Resources plunge drags bourse lower
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24909676-36418,00...
14th January 2009
I think a pattern is emerging. US slows down then China slows down then Australia slows down.Five percent growth in Chinese terms is very bad news as the long held internal leadership theory goes anything below 7/ 8 percent growth will lead to internal social instability.