Hello Nate,

Thxs for the video. The ASPO rep [kudos to her] asked the right question, but Fatih didn't give an answer, dammit.

She basically asked: What 'Evidence' do you have that OPEC & OECD will find the future equivalent of 4 Saudi Arabias just to offset the 6.4% postPeak depletion to keep production flat, much less finding 6 KSAa to meet expected demand growth?

I bet he didn't answer the question because he knows he doesn't have any supporting evidence. Therefore, it was a lost golden opportunity for him to Clearly State that we are in for some rough, downhill sledding ahead.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

And the next questioner call the IEA forecast 'pessimistic'.

How many times did Fatih need to point out all the "IF"s in the assumptions to make it clear that the forecast was decidedly on the sunny side.

Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies!!!

The man walks in a political minefield. Do you really expect him to tell us that the game is up? He comes close enough in the video. He touches on resource nationalism but is silent on declining exports (he probably believes that smart people will read between the lines anyway). The very fact that he says we need4 KSAs to stay where we are tells you a story. He also mentions that too much time is spent on demand forecasting rather than on decline rates. He talks of peak oil for a particular field and then how production rates decline.

He cannot shout "Fire" in what is now a very crowded cinema theatre. Instead he uses phrases such as "If you look closely to that corner of the cinema, you will find that there is a chemical reaction going on in which carbon is combining with oxygen and giving off a lot of heat".

I hope the Indian government features in his briefings. We are putting our bets behind the auto industry and planning our cities for cars rather than emphasizing public transport. Most Indians follw the ELP model and we are trying our best to get them out of it!!

Srivathsa

The fire warning in a crowded theater is an interesting analogy in a number of ways. I've reviewed many catastrophic industrial accidents. Very often there were warning signs of the pending incident. Very commonly these warnings were ignored by the workers because: 1)I didn't want management to blame me for stopping operations if here really wasn't anything wrong, 2)I might be blamed for the problem even though it wasn't my fault, 3)I knew it might be a problem but it wasn't my responsibility. 4) Someone else will take care of it.

Unfortunately it's easy to imagine these same excuses being offered by TPTB when the true nature of the problems becomes obvious to the general public.