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202 comments on DrumBeat: January 9, 2009

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ThatsItImout on January 9, 2009 - 2:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

westexes,

Since I have learned so much from you here on TOD, I owe ya' a favor...so take it for what it's worth, just don't bet every cent you got on that curve, o.k.?

:-)
RC

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westexas on January 9, 2009 - 2:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nothing to bet on, the curve, through 2008, is historical. Nothing is going to change it.

But it will be interesting to see what the next 10 years looks like--out to 2018.

Using the three exponential rate of change numbers referenced above:

At +19%/year (1998 to 2008 rate of increase), nominal oil prices in 2018 would be $668.

At +11%/year, nominal oil prices in 2018 would be $300.

At -69%/year, nominal oil prices in 2018 would be 10ยข per barrel.

(There is actually a certain symmetry to 2018, versus 2008. Our middle case is that the top five have, through 2008, shipped about 20% of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports, and our middle case is that by 2018, halfway to projected near zero net exports, they will have shipped about 80% of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports.)

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202 comments on DrumBeat: January 9, 2009

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