Once again, the conventional lack of wisdom puts absolute faith in "the market" to solve all. But the market only handles allocation. Not scale (MORE vs LESS) and not distribution. Many of the downsides Gail mentions are precisely scale and distribution (not like a grid, but the distribution of costs and benefits among the various whoos in whooville and future whoos too).

The lowest price issue Gail brings up also reminds me of something I'm pondering right now in Heilbronner, about how markets go unstable. Nor do I hear the key argument made against hydrogen made against electricity: that it's not an energy source and it's damn hard to store.

Still, I'd put my point of argument that "upgrading" the grid fails on basis of scale and distribution. Seems to me that scale and distribution both suggest breaking apart the grid and localizing much production.

And then there are those charts presumably comparing old to new. Hogwash. A chainsaw will take down a fancy grid just as easily as a 40 year old grid. And deep integration with asset management? Keep that out of my house, please; a good reason NOT to get on this program.

cfm in Gray, ME

The "Invisible Fist" of the Market usually pounds something until it dies. We need to not worship our God Capital, and The Chosen Path, The Free Market.

You'll find that the "invisible leech" of a command economy system will treat you much worse. See FSU pre-1990's. I'm a vocal opponent of present so-called free market systems for electricity, but am also aware that the present "fully regulated" model has a lot of weaknesses too, such as a) the higher they can get their costs, the more money they make. b) no incentive to efficiency. c) no incentive to innovation.

Bottom line is, workers need some incentive to work, investors need some incentive to invest. Trick is to use our intelligence to set these incentive vectors at the correct size and direction to do the most long-term good for our communities.

(in lieu of an up-rate) Hear, hear!

The regulated industry model can be made to work, if we can keep the free market Nazis out of the regulatory process. I remember how PG&E operated years ago. They spent money on maintenance to keep the equipment running for years not months. Free market economists would count this a waste, because the goal is to maximize profits on a quarterly basis.

You'll find that the "invisible leech" of a command economy system will treat you much worse. See FSU pre-1990's.

The communist party in the FSU was not an “invisible leech”. It was a chest thumping, roaring, 500 lb gorilla armed with an iron mace, ready, willing and able to smash in the brains of anyone who refused to do its bidding. If “invisible leech” was the best metaphor you could come up with, it seems likely that you are parroting standard propoganda rather than thinking objectively about alternatives to the “Let’s get richer forever” economic paradigm.

If “invisible leech” was the best metaphor you could come up with

Well, it seems that the leech WAS very invisible for a LOT of "good communists" long after the gorrila was obvious to everyone else. Still holds for many.

I'm not clear on what your objection is exactly. I'm certainly no fan of unfettered capitalism mainly because it creates as many leeches on society as any socialist system. The only difference is that in capitalism the leeches are found among the families and offspring of the successful capitalists, whereas in socialism they are found among the minority of working class who'd rather game the system than do a fair days work. I personally think that a fair system should provide an absolutely even start in life to every citizen, then beyond providing free healthcare to all (because most often health problems are not the result of bad choices but bad genetics, bad luck or environmental pollution) leave them alone to make the best of their talents, and no passing of advantage on to following generations. It also seems rational to provide some level of insurance against temporary lack of employment simply because that improves worker mobility, which is beneficial in the long term.

I personally think that a fair system should provide an absolutely even start in life to every citizen, then beyond providing free healthcare to all (because most often health problems are not the result of bad choices but bad genetics, bad luck or environmental pollution) leave them alone to make the best of their talents, and no passing of advantage on to following generations.

You don't think that a large part intellectual ability and manual dexterity are a matter of genetics just as much as a large part of physical health is a matter of genetics? Even if a society of 100% super geniuses existed they would still need people to pound nails, pick fruit, haul garbage, make clothing, clean the toilets in public buildings etc. Such a society would welcome with open arms people who were willing to spend 100% of their working hours doing these kind of humble but necessary tasks. Is is really justice that people who work hard and dedicatedly doing society's dirty work should be poorly paid simply because of their genetic endowment? (Am speaking of an ideal level playing field situation. The real situation is even more unfair because circumstances of birth often play an important role in economic success in addition to genetic talent.)

Furthermore capital markets (I distinguish capital markets from markets for goods and services) which give people more money simply because of the fact that they already have money can never represent a level playing field, not to mention the fact that such markets cannot function effectively without composite growth of the over all economy and are therefore inherently destructive in a world running up against resource limits.

My idea of a fair economic system has two components. One component is that the only way to earn money would be by doing constructive work. No one should be able to earn money simply by virtue of already having money. Of course one can conceive that people with good business acumen in a systems sense, who are capable of evaluating the potential for success of proposals for new enterprises or for expansions of existing enterprises would be providing a valuable service to society. However, such people should be rewarded for their hard work and intelligence and not for the volume of money that flows through their hands. Once people making investment decisions are rewarded for the volume of money flowing through their hands, then a growth orientation of the economy follows as the night the day. And if you allow people with excess cash to put their money in the hands of the people making investment decisions in return for a cut of the profits, then fairness goes out the window. We need a form of community or public finance. A dictatorial central government is one possible form of such community finance, but I am not convinced that it is the only one.

The second component of my idea of a fair economic system is that people who are very good at performing some valuable economic task should be rewarded by a combination of job security and/or reduced working hours but not by excess economic consumption relative to other people performing valuable economic tasks. This is to say that there should be a maximum salary which the majority of people employed on a full time basis would receive. This is not to say that anybody is guaranteed this salary. If I employ two janitors and I can easily go out on the street and find someone who can do the work of both of them in the same number of working hours, then I am free to fire the two inefficient janitors and hire the more efficient one. But if it is worth my while to hire a janitor full time, he or she gets the salary. A business could uniformly reduce salaries throughout the business in an effort to survive hard times, assuming the employees were willing to accept this reduction and not to jump ship. But you cannot say to anyone: we need you to work full time, but because you were born with the wrong genetics you can work like a slave all of your life and you will still be dirt poor.

You may say, of course that such a system would discourage talented people from utilizing their talents. I have two comments about such a claim. First, the day the you are willing to sign up to be a full time garbage man, or a garment worker if you receive the same salary that you do today, send me a note. I'm holding my breath. Second, encouraging talented people to try to use their abilities increase the total volume of stuff being manufactured and sold is an incredibly bad idea in a world running up against resource limits. We have to find some outlet for our entrepreneurial talents other than trying to sell more stuff this year than we sold last year. As Kenneth E. Boulding wrote in THE ECONOMICS OF THE COMING SPACESHIP EARTH:

By contrast, in the spaceman economy, throughput is by no means a desideratum, and is indeed to be regarded as something to be minimized rather than maximized. The essential measure of the success of the economy is not production and consumption at all, but the nature, extent, quality, and complexity of the total capital stock, including in this the state of the human bodies and minds included in the system. In the spaceman economy, what we are primarily concerned with is stock maintenance, and any technological change which results in the maintenance of a given total stock with a lessened throughput (that is, less production and consumption) is clearly a gain. This idea that both production and consumption are bad things rather than good things is very strange to economists, who have been obsessed with tile income-flow concepts to the exclusion, almost, of capital-stock concepts.

My ideas for bringing about a wealth maintaining economy (as opposed to a wealth increasing economy) may well be impractical, but I have yet to read a single line written by any promoter of the "efficiency" of capital markets that they have clue about how to bring such an economy into existence.

Agreed on the need for incentives for investment and efficiency.

Some market critics go too far. Just because a mechanism or tool is flawed that doesn't mean you should automatically throw it out. Sometimes a flawed mechanism is the best choice available.

It is important to make a distinction between capital markets and markets for goods and services. Capital markets are driven by the desire of money to make money, and they require composite growth for proper functioning. There are in fact other incentives for investment and efficiency than the desire of rich people to get richer without doing constructive work. When you invest in a new roof for your house you do so because you desire to stay dry, not because you are trying to make your money grow. When insulate your house you are trying to cut your energy costs, not to gain wealth based on somebody else's productivity improvements.

Everyone know that the Golden Gate Bridge was one the greatest wastes of money in the history of humanity, since any investment of community funds will inevitably be executed in a inefficient, slovenly fashion. This is the reason why our sewer systems, street lighting systems, highway systems, state universities, national laboratories, etc. are completely non functional and worthless.

You really ought to try activating a couple of extra brain cells rather than just parroting standard economic propaganda. If you did so you would realize an elementary fact: Capital markets require composite growth for proper functioning. If I give you money, which represents purchasing power, and expect you to return a larger amount of purchasing power to me at some later date, then that excess purchasing power has to come from one of two sources:

  1. Total economic output increases.
  2. I take purchasing power away from somebody else.

No third option exists. I look forward to you explanation of how such a system of investment will work without economic growth.

My belief is that we need a system of public or community investment, which I think can be compatible with markets for goods and services and a large degree of private enterprise. We need to create a society in which the only way to earn the right to consume economic output is by doing constructive work. No one should be able to earn money simply by virtue of the fact that they already have money.

If I give you money, which represents purchasing power, and expect you to return a larger amount of purchasing power to me at some later date, then that excess purchasing power has to come from one of two sources:

  1. Total economic output increases.
  2. I take purchasing power away from somebody else.

No third option exists.

Fallacy of the excluded middle.  The third option is you give purchasing power to me today and I give more back to you over time; it doesn't come from any third party.  What I'm getting out of it is the use of more resources than I have at hand immediately.

In the case of borrowing for e.g. a house, where I'm paying more than rent would cost but I get the use of a house and wind up owning it (plus the social benefits of my personal stake in the condition of the house and neighborhood), it's likely worth it; in the case of borrowing for spinner hubs for an Escalade, almost certainly not.

No one should be able to earn money simply by virtue of the fact that they already have money.

Should people be able to earn money simply by virtue of the fact that they already have a building full of machine tools, or a house to rent?  That will eliminate investment in factories and rental housing, and you'll see everything collapse.  If you think that government can allocate investment better than private agents with their expertise, you're quite crazy.

In IMEUC, no central "big brother" is invading your space. The "market manager" (formerly the regulator) simply makes availble to you the changing prices which indicate changing conditions, and it is your own equipment which reads those prices and takes appropriate actions (or does not) according to your own indicidual priorities which you program into it with a simple user interface. Metering and local controllers and communications are provided to you by the "market manager" (formerly the regulator), who also manages the central database and computes and collects bills, or makes billing data available to generating companies who then bill you. Many variations workable, individual distribution / market regions may operate differently.

It seems like to make the process work, the US government would have to take over the whole thing--grid and electricity production. It could then theoretically add production as desired, use the production that has been developed optimally, and use the electrical system to take over much of what oil currently is doing.

I have a hard time seeing this happen. There are other areas the government would probably like to nationalize as well, include oil and gas, and perhaps auto production and the airline industry, to keep these industries functioning. There is a limit to what the government can do. Also, I find it difficult to believe the government would do a great job of running any of these.

There is some merit to the idea of a single owner of an integrated business. It could be the government, or it could be a private entity, but only if the government recognizes and protects the property rights of the private entity, i.e. protects the private entity from hostile take-overs. But is that really something we can trust a populist government to do?

Dennis was right, with respect to the muni in Cleveland.

I find some of the comments above curious. The electric utility system is nowhere near "fully regulated", at least here in Maine. Hell. most of Maine's system has been sold to corporate owners in Spain. Nor is it fully regulated in Texas or California, as ENRON and Dynergy made clear. Nor in Massachusetts, Vermont or New Hampshire. The rest of the US, I don't know in as much detail.

Nor do I see why "nationalizing" is any kind of a solution. Regionalizing - reducing the scale of production to contiguous economic, political and environmental horizons - sure. But that's not "nationalizing".

The 14th Amendment, meant to free the slaves, unleashed these corporate monsters. Does not a Jew bleed? How many of us studied Merchant of Venice in high school? What about a corporation? Chop them up, return them to the communities and regions they were supposed to "serve" as community investment trusts under community control.

The rules that worked for a growth economy must give way to the rules that work for a shrinking economy. Among then the US Constitution. It's going to take a while to figure that out.

cfm in Gray, ME

I think a case could be made that the microcontroller in my thermostat has at least as much brains as the average Wall Street analyst. So does deregulation mean I can run an arbitrage program in my thermostat and buy electricity from HydroQuebec or somewhere in the FSU if it can get a cheaper deal?

Can it buy futures and sell them on the open market a-la Enron?

The sarcasm aside, what you just described isn't far from a thumbnail description of smart metering and DSM.

Dryki said:

Nor do I hear the key argument made against hydrogen made against electricity: that it's not an energy source and it's damn hard to store.

The argument is not made presumably because there is already what might be called significant existing electrical infrastructure, that delivers the commodity to the consumer in 99.999% of cases, on a real-time basis, as and when it is needed.

Also, I disagree that "it's damn hard to store" electricity. This has been worked on and refined for decades. From the very small (inside your cell phone and iPod) to the very large (Hydro Pumped Storage).

The art of storage that is now of greatest concern is not the very small or the very large. It is the intermediate. The ability to store enough energy to move 2,000 lbs at 65 mph for a distance of over 400 miles. It may surprise you, but there is currently enormous endeavor in this area with regard to electric cars.

Personally, I think it is truly a waste for so much effort to be expended in the hunt for a continuation of business-as-usual (BAU). I suggest that if the internal combustion engine had never been invented, we would still be living in a very modern world. Probably with largely the same set of problems, all of which stem from over-population and avarice.

If 99% of people lived within 1 mile of their job - then 99.999% of trips made in cars would be completely unnecessary.

At the moment all effort is focused on the symptoms and not the disease. The sudden loss of a major oil field in Saudi Arabia within 6 months of the loss of Cantarell, would be the black-swan-event that results in total anarchy.

Is there anyone with a brain that truly believes capitalism as we have known it for the last century (predicated on infinite growth, dependent on cheap energy) is not dead - we are merely waiting for the doctor to issue the time of death.

There is insufficient time or capital to roll out the kind of infrastructure for hydrogen that would replicate in any way that which exists for electricity. Let alone the historical R&D associated with batteries.

The first world has been caught with its pants down, there is no petroleum jelly (how ironic), we all need to brace for impact.

We have to make the best of the situation whatever happens and thus we need to use the available tools and methods for organizing a society. Capitalism with a respect for ownership and a free market that allows new ideas and new entrepreneurs is a very efficient mechanism for change and finding efficient pathways in utilizing available resurces. I would fight tooth and nail for it and for geting the right incentives in place. And the mechanism for doing that needs to be accepted by a broad majority and a good mechanism for that is democracy. And the democracy in turn rests on peoples moral and knowledge.

Thus you got to have the same moral and laws for your neighbour, the countys and states tax financed oragnizations and businesses both large and small. Unfairness would rot the system, fairness and good laws makes it resilen in bad times. Healthy cultures and states have survived severe hardship and helped their populations thru bad times. Its not the end of the world unless you sulk untill you starve.

"Its not the end of the world unless you sulk untill you starve."

Can I watch you say the same thing in the future in person to large groups of people as they die of starvation? Might be in Africa, could be in the first world, who knows (rhetorical).

By the way, I do not need an explanation of democracy or capitalism or the connections, dependencies etc. In my opinion capitalism (as we know it) is dieing in front of us. Because it is not something seen everyday, most people lack the ability to recognize it. Cognizance of reality sometimes carries a very heavy price.

Capitalism in a new form, may rise from the ashes of the ruins we stand amongst and democracy (a separate issue) may continue to flourish. If you are so good at predicting the future can I have next weeks lottery numbers please and thank you.

Point taken, I got a little carried away about the "civilizatin will end when a family only can afford one car" mindset.

I do not see capitalism dieing. There is a whole spectrum of capitalists and businesses, some produce services and products that will be very useful in a post peak oil world, some dont, some produce good quality stuff, some dont, some have their environmental influence under control, others dont and some have solid owners and others are deep in debt and can no longer honour their contracts.

The financial crisis seems to be unwinding the contracts that no longer can be fulfilled. There are a lot of promises for future incomes that never will materialise and the ugliest part might be people who wont get the pensions they have paied for since they were malinvested. It sucks to work hard during the prime time of your life and having all that you accompished be sucked up by a Bearnie Madoff, or investments in inefficient buildings and infrastructure or companies who make shitty products.

But on the bright side this is a large batch of creative destruction that strips irresponsibe or dumb leadership of resources that the can be picked up by better run companies, new entrepreneurs and used to implement new ideas.

Unfortunately this process is unfolding in an abrupt way that also destroys businesses that would be viable in a more gradual change. Thus are also good assets destroyed and businesses that should pump out needed services and products for the adaptation to a new set of cercumstances are idle. This process surprised me since I thougt the market part of our global economy would be more agile then it obviously is.

But I can also see that not everything stops and good investments are made and they need to be valued against each other in a way that is far quicker then a political processes and there must be ways for people to invest their surplus money/work/resources in things that will pay off in the future. I work with political solutions but there is no way to get things done in an an efficient way withouth capitalism and the market economy.

Such processes have in earlier times survived hardship including currency failures so why should it stop?

My prediction is that a new generation of captalists will emerge from the ashes in parallell with new investors, both very small and large, who know about asking the right questions. One of the most important parts of this process is keeping old well functioning institutions running and improving on the institutions that are needed for the new situation. And this is a good thing to do regardless of how deep the recession or depression is or how large the emerging economy will be.

The for me scariest scenario would be a political movement in Sweden who would like to scrap our institutions and abandon capitalism, personal ownership and the market parts of our ecnomy for some grand experiment. That could destroy the good things we got and can create. We have recently toyed too much with socialism and it hurt us. I think we can handle the peak oil problems and climate change problems and competition with bidding wars for resources if we keep our toolbox of institutions and capitalism and one of the most important institutions is a functioning democracy.

Some people want to see markets collapse because they think the result will be a society which does not have as many status levels. That idea attracts them because they feel they will have higher relative status than they do now (few levels above them) and more control.

I think that markets are basic to human nature. We either trade or we get forced to do things. I'd rather we do more trading and less coercing.

as they die of starvation? Might be in Africa, could be in the first world, who knows (rhetorical).

It may be true that poorer countries will suffer more, but peak oil is not an insurmountable problem. The waste will be curbed first by simple market mechanisms when the oil price rises again. And as current waste is tremendous, especially in North America and in subsidizing countries, that gives us a really big cushion. Important operations won't suffer for decades after peak oil, which leaves us plenty of time and resources to invest in other energy sources.

In my opinion capitalism (as we know it) is dieing in front of us. [...] Capitalism in a new form, may rise from the ashes of the ruins we stand amongst

That is crazy talk, my friend. And please realize that death of capitalism would represent a much graver threat of global starvation than peak oil ever was.

"And please realize that death of capitalism would represent a much graver threat of global starvation than peak oil ever was."

I think we would have an awful hard time doing the math. Would we include the starvation presently caused by "free market capitalism"? Would we include the starvation related to folks finding themselves without ff resources in areas of severe environmental/agricultural degradation which has resulted from the practices of capitalism?

Capitalism has been a form of empire which has come into its own in the past century. While it may not be seen to be as barbaric as previous empires (and I would debate that) it most certainly is not a benign empire - particularly if you have what it needs to flourish.

In any case - it appears to me that the story of fossil fuel use and capitalist economic practice are inextricably entwined. I don't think the numbers are as easily separated as all that.

My opinion/rant off

Al

What's dying now is not capitalism, but corporatism (what capitalism has evolved into in the US primarily, eg. a supposedly voter-selected government which has become captive of large corporations). To observe capitalism operating properly, see most Scandinavian countries. I dare you to call a Dane a communist. You wouldn't survive the encounter. Sweden lately has gone a little wonky, but otherwise the Scandinavians are getting things right. Observe how the Norwegians are handling the discovery of enormous petroleum wealth in their offshore. They've passed laws that say that all excess wealth generated is sequestered into a government-held fund, THEN passed laws stating that the resulting funds must NOT be re-invested locally, because such re-investment would overheat the local economy causing inflation of wages and products, thus killing local entrepreneurs outside of the oil industry (known as the "Dutch disease", see Alberta, Canada.) Interestingly, taxes at all levels in Norway are still high relative to esp. N. America, reflective of the high quality of services (universal health care, free education to any level which a student can qualify for the entrance exams, etc. etc.) the government provides its citizens, and NONE of it paid by the oil revenues collected by the government.

The difference from there to N. America is that the people actually TRUST their governments (for good reason, the governments are trustworthy and democratic). The true test of whether a government is democratic or not, is whether it is worthy of every citizen's trust. As soon as it fails that test, it is no longer democracy.

Also, I disagree that "it's damn hard to store" electricity. This has been worked on and refined for decades. From the very small (inside your cell phone and iPod) to the very large (Hydro Pumped Storage).

Batteries can't be used large scale, barring a tech breakthrough. Hydro pumped storage is nice, efficiency-wise, but "very large" is perhaps not quite right. The US consumes on average 450 GW electricity, whereas China's Three Gorges dam will provide about 22 GW. That says something about large scale operation of pumped storage.

Coal will prevail, it seems, for the time being. Only coal, natural gas and breeder really scales anyway.