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155 comments on DrumBeat: January 12, 2009
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155 comments on DrumBeat: January 12, 2009
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After a quick run thru of the list of experts, I notice there's a heavy concentration of aerospace and computer folks. As a one time satellite systems engineer who has used computers for more than 40 years, I'm sure that there is much optimism in this crowd which is not based on a real, hands on understanding of the limits of technology. I once had such optimism, thinking that the world was as easy to change as the code of a computer program (Ha!).
As you mention, there are almost no people in the list who claim to be experts in biology or ecology, which is not unusual in the technology world. My engineering education had no requirement for biology course work and at the time ecology was a nearly unknown field. Many people who have spent their entire lives in cities really don't have a clue about the connections between the natural environment and their own lives, thus their perspective is limited to extrapolating past trends to an ever brighter future of cornucopian growth. One such example is the notion of space tourism, which will always require massive amounts of energy even for short hops above 50 miles. From an energy perspective, today's reality is that there simply isn't going to be enough energy available for more than a few people to experience space flight. The billions of us left behind on the surface will find it increasingly difficult just to stay warm in winter and finding enough work to pay for it.
It's a good thing that Fred Singer is no longer on the list, having had some direct experience with Dr. Singer and his fellow travelers. However, Singer is just one of many who appear to think that mankind can ignore climate change and the environment in general. They have been proven wrong so many times that it's hard to keep up with the count, yet, they still find a voice with funding from large corporations which do not want to give up their destructive ways. Once Peak Oil is obvious to all, things are going to change radically because there's no easy solution to the energy problem.
For comparison with those on the list, consider what Amory Lovins has been able to do for more than 30 years. His Hyper Car concept was to be a great technological leap, but they are not aircraft or spacecraft and they still do not exist...
E. Swanson
.. well I had to go take a peek at that HyperCar.
Here's a video describing some of the developments that went into the Hyper-car.
Be Warned, the style of the video is practically dripping with Cornucopianism.. Very Snazzy, with HiTeck Music and Too-cool cutting.. but I still think a lot of the notions that are in play here can be useful for whatever it is we are pushing around on wheels.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/09/04/video-rmis-hypercar-a-100-mpg-su...
While definitely a business-lovin'-futurist, (and not unlike William McDonough, I'd say) I think Lovins has been doing some very useful design work.
-- Who was that McLovin' character in SUPERBAD?
And where's Cherenkov when you need him?