dave,

For not being an "expert" you seem to have a rather thorough and accurate summery of the current state of affairs IMO. I'll offer one little tweak that that might seem counterintuitive. Even if increased demand destruction from persistent economic woes continues downward pressure on oil prices, we might begin seeing significant increases in NG prices as early as next winter. Though not directly related to oil prices, most of the US NG drillers are significantly cutting back their efforts. Given the recent significant contribution from the unconventional NG plays and their associated rapid decline rates, the cut back in those plays will likely be felt very quickly. Thus even as we might see a decrease in NG demand we may see increasing costs. And if the drilling slump persists for 12 to 24 months we may actually experience shortages even during times of reduced demand.

Time will tell.