150 comments on POLL: Can We Buildout Both Renewable Energy AND Attain Economic Growth?
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150 comments on POLL: Can We Buildout Both Renewable Energy AND Attain Economic Growth?
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I'd say a cross between 3 and 6. We could build out some renewable 'critical' infrastructure for high-consuming countries, and some medium-consuming countries, but not for all 6 billion people, at least not at the level in the high-consuming countries. Solar cookers perhaps, but not full replacement of their housing, transportation infrastructure, and implementation of a modest smart electrical grid network.
if we do that, how will those not at the renewable infrastructure party feel? and what will their leaders do?
how will those not at the renewable infrastructure party feel?
Pretty much the way they feel now.
and what will their leaders do?
That depends on their reliance on our consumption of their goods, the negotiations over the measures enacted to reduce GHG, and how the other import/export money flows.
Left out.
Seriously I think its fairly obvious that at this stage renewable energy / nuclear / electric rail options will be for a minority of the worlds 6 billion people. I suspect that eventually it will be a minority of the current population of the wealthiest countries.
We also have and obvious catch 22 as the world energy supply contracts that continuing BAU results initially in the collapse of the weakest nations leaving more energy for the stronger countries. I uses weaker/stronger in a military-economic sense since military might would play a increasing role as we start to see a global economic meltdown.
Thus if the expectation is that a solution to our energy problems means electric SUV's for suburbia then we can expect that this will be the problem thats solved. At some point it will become obvious that electric rail is also needed but its more to support the work force of the wealthy not as a national rail network.
Americans expecting to participate in this economy at their current living standard will of course agree with the game. I suspect Europeans will be a bit less willing but will also go along. At some point it will become obvious that not all Americans and Europeans will be "saved" much less the rest of the world however politically I suspect at this point it will be to late.
Not that I'm against efforts to move to renewables etc but I think it should be obvious to all that this is not going to save the world and at best will ensure the continuation of a technically advanced civilization in a few enclaves much smaller than our current nations.
The problem is all of the problems we did not solve when we had abundant energy don't go away as energy declines they simply get worse and even harder to solve. And we all live on the same planet problems in one one country will spill over into its neighbors we are not isolated not even Australia. To save our global society we face the enormous task of solving many of the problems we failed to solved with almost unlimited resources and do it with a declining resource base and worsening global economy.
If we don't solve the worlds problems then all we are doing is creating technologically advanced enclaves and the issue is who is in and who is out. The chances of our current society surviving the formation of enclaves is zero. The chance that these enclaves won't turn into despotic militaristic centers of power is slim. The chance that most Americans and Europeans will support the formation of enclaves ignoring the rest of the world under the assumption that they will get in is 100%.
Only Alan's electric rail proposals offers a solution thats viable world wide. Electric rail coupled with renewable and yes nuclear energy offers the chance for the world to transition the nuclear option is in my opinion needed because we have waited to long but this does not mean it need be large or we cannot remove it overtime. But its simply to late to not develop standard commercial reactors if simply to power the creation of the infrastructure for renewable sources. This does not mean we don't have a number of other problems to address esp food and water security but if we can get electric rail widespread I'd suggest that this transportation backbone can help regions specialize in what they can produce sustainable and allow populations to redistribute to take pressure off the least sustainable regions. Even with six billion people we face more of a population distribution problem vs a absolute population problem . And of course we must finally develop a human way to reduce the worlds population and a secure retirement for all is the best solution.
So in my opinion as overall energy declines we have a simple choice we have to solve the problems of the world or we can create enclaves. And enclaves will result in extreme misery and probably despotic nuclear armed city states. Think North Korea.
I don't know of that's true or not, current living standard part.
If the economy can decentralize then anything is possible, with the same twenty- five idiots in charge of everything all that is left will be 'check mate'.
Just a nit, but important (I'm not arguing your general point): We don't need to replace housing for 6 billion. A goodlyportion of the world lives in cliamtes that need no power for heating/cooling, or that are mild enough that, e.g., bundling up would actually be enough. For much of the world, living differently rather than building differently.
Some attempt to quantify this might be useful for global scale solutions.
Cheers