The only way we have been able to maintain economic growth this long is by building a huge debt bubble that allowed up to keep up energy production and push that energy through the economy. Now that the debt bubble is collapsing, the amount of energy available and used from all sources is dropping back. With less debt, cash flow becomes much more important, for energy as well as everything else.

As long as renewables are scaling up, the cost of new turbines and new PV vastly exceeds the annual benefit on an unsubsidized basis. Unless we are very short of electricity capacity (and this is debatable, with the current drop in industrial electrical demand), it is hard for governments to justify spending scarce resources in building a huge amount of additional infrastructure, no matter how "green".

Also, if state governments--and individuals--are very much poorer, they will not have all the money they have had in the past to provide subsidies to homeowners for renewables. If states like California are close to bankruptcy, it will be hard to maintain their current level of support for renewables. Because of these issues, I expect that renewables will have a hard time holding their own in the years ahead.

I have always had doubts about the overall EROEI of small scale PV and other widespread distributed micro generation. The fact that it can't work without being subsidised either through gross feed in tarrifs or direct cash handouts up front, underlines the overall inefficiency of this approach.

I am not surprised that Governments would withdraw subsidies as it may make more sense to invest in a centralised power station with a manageable output than to subsidise an uncontrolled, distributed system wher the responsible authority has little control over the mainatenance and reliability.

Back to square one I'm afraid.

PV has EROEI above one, but not all much above, as far as I've seen. To me, it is important as a supplement to wind, since it provides a more reliable base load during peak usage--hot summer days.

From what I have heard, small scale wind does not have EROEI above 1, especially when you include energy for construction and transportation of the units. Efficiencies of scale really are important here, though going with the biggest models makes it less likely that the democratization of the power supply in the way many alt energy folks have been hoping for.

On the subsidies side, every major form of power is pretty massively subsidized. The subsidies for research into nuclear alone swamps everything being spent on alternatives.

Of course, I all for taking away all subsidies to all of the energy industries, but that is not likely to happen any time soon.

PV has EROEI above one, but not all much above, as far as I've seen. ... From what I have heard, small scale wind does not have EROEI above 1, especially when you include energy for construction and transportation of the units.

Please share you sources, so that we can evaluate the findings.

In the meantime, read this Home Power article.

Just googling "pv eroei" pulls up:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2894 gives 1 (doubtless too low)

http://www.jeffvail.net/2006/11/energy-payback-from-photovoltaics.html

http://mdsolar.blogspot.com/2008/01/eroie.html gives levels starting at 3.7

http://www.peakoil.org.au/news/energy_profit.htm gives 3

I don't have time to multiply these dozens of times, but outside the PV sales industry that your link (and perhaps you?) represent, there are many low estimates for PV EROEI. Note that I don't think that this alone should prevent investment, and of course further research and development.

I feel that grid tie PV should at least be given a chance and subsidized equally.

A 50+% rebate would go farther than what is being subsidized currently IMHO

California has been reducing the rebate while claiming that they support renewables

If they were really behind Solar , they would be increasing it.

Subsidizing indivduals like this is politically difficult as it creates a risk of the individaul disconnecting from the grid and hogging the generated power.

At this moment in South Eastern Australia we are sweltering in 43 Deg C heat and power companies are now load shedding by disconnecting whole neighbourhoods on a roster basis. If you were lucky enough to have PV on your roof so you can keep your fridge going at least, why should I help pay you for it?

I hear this argument from a few deep greens that want the government to subsidise their panels and then pay them premium gross feed in tarrif like Germany but where do they think the money for this comes from?

The feed-in tariff is only for grid-connected solar systems. Not storage. The power doesn't go through their house, and anything left goes to the grid; it goes straight to the grid and the house draws on it. So when the grid goes down, those houses with solar panels lose power, too.

If they added batteries to their system, that was entirely out of their own pocket and not subsidised by the taxpayer. So if they manage to keep their fridge going for a day or so, well they paid for that, so why not?

Some stand-alone systems are subsidised, but that's because where the household is they can't get mains power (outback cattle stations, etc). The subsidy there isn't really for renewable energy, it's to support rural people - the same way the public pays more per person to get a phone connection to a village of 82 people than in a city of a million. And in any case stand-alone systems in the outback don't get a feed-in tariff.

Money for rooftop solar comes from the same place money for coal-fired stations comes from, the public. The question is not whether the public will pay for it, they'll always have to pay; the question is what do we want to achieve, and whether this or that is the best spending of money to get what we want.

In sunny places like California, which have high insolation levels and clear skys, large-scale solar thermal electric systems have persistantly shown themselves to be cheaper per KWh than photovoltaics, whether distibuted or not. They can even store heat in molten salt and generate electric power at night.

We need to concentrate our resources on the options that provide the lowest long term costs, as there is no shortage of neccesary projects that require the expenditure of cash.

CA is subsidizing solar to the tune of ~10c/kWh (lifetime amortized cost IIRC) because it displaces ~15-25c/kWh electricity from natural gas peaker plants, reduces the need for extra transmission infrastructure only used during peak demand in the summer, and helps to get the solar industry, a lot of which is local, on it's feet. There's only so much peak capacity that is financially prudent for the state to subsidize at higher rates, not to mention solar panel prices have been dropping fairly consistently, so the subsidy drops as the amount of PV generating capacity increases for both business and residential applications.

dohboi,

You've claimed that PV has an EROEI of around one, but the links you provided show otherwise;

Your first two links are focused on cost, your third link provides PV EROEI values of 12-10, 7.5 and 3.7 (which has values in the ranges I provided), and your fourth link gives an EROEI of 3.

So I assume you are readjusting your thoughts on PV EROEI?

Now, what sources do you have on small wind?

I don't consider 3 to be "much above one" (my actual words), but if you do, I won't argue the point.

Again, I am not arguing against PV. I have considered putting some up on my roof. I just find it surprising and a bit disappointing that its EROEI is not higher yet.

I would REALLY, REALLY, REALLY like to see some effort put into determining EROEI of DIY systems as I have repeatedly posted on these forums. Until someone does that, you folks are blowing smoke when talking about micro-energy. I don't see the future filled with micro-turbines built by Vestas, for example. That's just greenwashed BAU and multiplies the costs by orders of magnitude, it would seem, over a DIY windmill/PV/etc.

The biggest cost in a DIY wind system are the panels and the batteries, but there are lots of batteries thrown away that have years of life, lots of throw away imperfect pv cells (though certainly not enough, but buying cells in bulk might help with costs, no?), there are many millions of auto generators in junkyards and lots of nice new mini- designs coming out. People are successfully using painted soda and beer cans to raise indoor temps 10+ degrees, e.g....

All of these things have been posted previously.

Cheers

Last I checked, via the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, the EROEI of solar was ~6-31:1 nearly a decade ago, depending on location, panel type, and so on. Since the cheapest panels available for consumers right now (AFAIK), at ~$3.50/Watt, are made from Polycrystalline and Amorphous Silicon, and have an EROEI of around ~15:1 as per the ASME paper, assuming an EROEI of three or less is incorrect in light of current panels. This of course does not take into account mass production for commercial and utility scale deployment of other amorphous thin film panel makers like First Solar at an EROEI of ~30:1. W/ thin film, in other words current tech in it's different forms, expected to blow past crystalline solar panel production around 2010, I imagine that any worries about solar PV w/ an EROEI less than an average of ~15-20:1 are unfounded.

Wind turbines are having bearing failures sometimes in as few as 100 hrs, in the larger turbines.

google: wind turbine bearing failure

I didn't see anything that showed this was common; very few, as a matter of fact, so it seems the industry is having much success in this area.

The subsidy will be an important contribution to the long term well being of the societies which are converting to renewables. It has to do with the Law of Receding Horizons. It has been claimed for a long time that technologies like shale oil, CTL, BTL, cellulosic ethanol, etc will make economic sense when fossil fuel prices are above X amount. Fossil fuel prices are a big factor in implementing replacements so as price rises the cost of replacements rise in step. I see a reflection of LRH that works the other way. Large scale use of renewables will reduce the demand for FF and therefore drive those prices down.

The justification for subsidies is national security. Imports make the importer vulnerable to political manipulation by the exporter. For instance we invest in military technologies not because they are cheaper than existing equipment but because they enhance national security. Building energy independence is cheaper than new military technologies by a long shot. If we don't need their fossil fuels then it takes away a reason for war and therefore the cost of new weapons.

One problem with PV occurs when it comes to speed of payback. If we are stuck in a growth paradigm in which a system has to deliver a certain % over the base financing rate, it is likely PV won't make the cut. It may be that PV pays back its energy cost in a few years time, but its return to the purchaser will likely mean that a PV system financed at say 6% interest may never pay for itself. I've done this calculation a number of times on a hypothetical home PV system and end up figuring 40 years payback, especially for an off-grid system. At this rate, one would be continually paying a rate many times the present rate of fossil-fuel electricity. But then maybe this is how much electricity will cost in the future.

THis is precisely my conclusion. Energy payback is a misleading indicator of affordability for an INDIVIDUAL due to timing of energy flows. From a social aggregate, with thousands of sources there are new ones coming online all the time so the FLOW rate of this energy is aggregated to make it appear to consumers as coming earlier in the lifetime. But if you only have one unit, it takes a great many years (and in my locale, about 40 at current electricity rates) to break even - if electricity rates triple then its closer to 15 years - but still no great deal - you are paying for insurance policy, not a high ROI.