I would be remiss if I didn't point out that WORLD3 and LTG models did not incorporate net energy (e.g. the energy costs of energy procurement accelerating over time)
I think people will increasingly realize the limiting variable is not flow rates/resources but flow rates/affordability. And we can improve affordability by increasing externalities.

Serious funding in terms of time, expertise and capital needs to be put towards these interdisciplinary conferences/pow-wows by governments. In viewing energy and finance these past 6 or 7 years it has become clear to me that the generalists (outside of the industry) have in general had a much better bead on what is happening ahead of time. Specialists are great, but their noses are so close to the cheese they miss the pizza.

Yes, but generalists are not funded in universities. They are actually ferociously discriminated and interdisciplinary research is actively discouraged. One of those small problems.....

why is that Ugo? As you know I am 'new' to academia, but I sense what you say is true. Can you give me some history/explanation?

Well, I have been in academia for more than 30 years.... lessee... an example? We had a nice interdisciplinary PhD program on materials that was shared between engineering, physics, and chemistry. It was very nice, really interdisciplinary, students learned and shared a lot. It lasted a few years; then it was closed. Never understood why but, as you say, it is something that can be "sensed". I also sense that the situation is particularly perverse in Italy, but it is not much different in the rest of the world. Academia rewards specialization, not interdisciplinary research. As we are talking about the LTG study, that is also an example: it was a very interdisciplinary study and zillions of researchers felt threatened because they felt that their hold on their specialized fields of expertise was threatened. You know how the study and its authors were shredded to pieces - fortunately only metaphorically.

On the reasons for this; well, there should be some dynamic modeling that explains why organizations tend to veer all the time towards hyperspecialization. It happens also for biological organisms (by the way, today is Darwin's bicentennial). In academia, in particular, the process goes through a series of elements that include the peer review process, such atrocious distortions as the "impact factor" that determines a scientist's career, and, in general because it is easy to keep plodding the same little field. On the other side, interdisciplinarity is very difficult and it is very easy to make a fool of yourself when you try to enter a new field. So, that's the way things are. With the economic crisis, interdisciplinarity will be even more penalized, I am afraid.

In this podcast on positive psychology (which I recommend watching in any case), the Harvard professor mentions that current peer-reviewed journal articles that get published now get an average of SEVEN total reads. What good is that doing anyone, unless is it some super obscure but important fact that is later picked up on?

Seven. Amazing if true. (and I think one of the seven was the author)

A good illustration of Sturgeon's law which says, if I remember correctly "90% of everything is crap"

I have noticed that much of the interesting resource depletion work is coming out of Applied Maths departments. I think B.Michel is an applied mathemetician, and of course others like Bartlett I believe are as well. Perhaps Applied Mathematics is the only real interdisciplinary field left, but where do they publish to get any more than a few reads?

the Harvard professor mentions that current peer-reviewed journal articles that get published now get an average of SEVEN total reads. What good is that doing anyone, unless is it some super obscure but important fact that is later picked up on?

That is a (somewhat) shocking figure if true. Such data are only sporadically available (for instance in that some journals publish download stats for .pdf versions of publications), and a better indicator might be citation metrics. For each time a publication is cited it has presumably been read at least several times.

With the increasing emphasis on citation rates in scientific career progression any publication that is not ultimately cited at least a couple of times per year was demonstrably not worth the effort of writing it in the first place. The scientific journals all know this of course and prefer to accept only the (anticipated to be) highest-impact manuscripts submitted to them. The lowest-impact stuff thus ends up filling journals which few people read and again in terms of career progression there is little reward in writing stuff that ends up in such journals (better to bin the manuscript and try again).

Shelf life value of work is rarely considered but also important. I did taxonomic classification work (describing and discriminating among species, mapping their distributions, compiling their ecological characteristics, etc.) and while none of this entailed a lot of break through theory, it was all useful from a practical point of view and will be looked at over and over again. I know this because I sometimes relied on the work of predecessors that could be up to 200 years old. Even if it is not cited, hundreds of people will directly look at these papers and they will remain the standard for many years if not decades. Citations may be in field reports from conservation NGOs, national park staff, etc, that are never found by citation search engines.

And if seven is the average, and you consider that some people and articles can safely be assumed to get hundreds of reads, if not more, it is fairly safe to say that a lot don't get any reads after peer review.

I was always told that, in academia, science is 'incremental.' When I was working on my thesis, my advisor said that I had two distinct ideas here. Which one did I want to write on? I had to ‘hone it down’ to one specific thing I wanted to study. I assume this is because it is easier to test something if there are few variables. Interdisciplinary studies are too complicated to devise workable experiments. How do you falsify a theory in a dynamic system?

Jon.

It's appropriate that you mention Darwin, not only in connection with biological specialization, but also because he was such a fine example of what's so rare today, a scientist whose scientific endeavor was one part of a broader philosophical endeavor.

This issue always makes me think of Nietzsche, who was prophetic on this as on so many issues. He foresaw what a danger hyperspecialization would be for thought in general, as well as for how much we could even trust scientific results.

He figured the time would come when no one outside a specialization, even other scientists within the same branch of science, would be able to judge that specialization's results, and that we'd simply have to have faith in the integrity of peer review within each specialty.

That's obviously a problem, yet I guess there's no helping it.

This is why it is always so interesting to read Vaclav Smil's interdisciplinary works.
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~vsmil/

Ugo, I'm not so sure that the incominc crisis will decourage the inderdisciplinarity. I suppose that hyper-specialization research will fall more ...

I wish you were right, Franco, but I am afraid that academia will die hyperspecialized

Interesting observation that specialization is seen in ecological systems as well as human society, H. T. Odum had some brilliant insights on that very subject.

In a nutshell, he understood that systems self-organize around available resources and he observed that when a critical resource, especially energy, becomes available in abundance a system will experience a period of fast, frenzied consumption and growth characterized by "weedy" fast-growing but short-lived structure. Not unlike our current industrial civilization.

As the system matures the fast weedy growth, having consumed the abundance, dies-back and is replaced with slower-growing and much longer-lived structure characterized by recycling of resources and, interestingly, high levels of specialization.

Speaking of Odum, I couldn't help but notice you were remiss in not mentioning his significant contribution to systems modeling, not least of which being the world models using his Energy Systems Language (Modeling for all scales: an introduction to systems simulation). As Nate rightly pointed out the Systems Dynamics language suffers from a lack of an explicit basis in the universal energy hierarchy, which Odum elucidated as the basis for ALL complex systems, both living and non-living, including human society.

Odum's Energy Systems language, OTOH, lacks the explicit mechanisms found in Systems Dynamics for setting "policies" which regulate rates and flows, and by extension storages.

It would be interesting to see an effort made to combine the two languages, drawing on the strengths of both, and present the result in a way that allows people to explore fun, game-like simulations of the world and possible future scenarios that respect the realities of the universal energy hierarchy.

Personally I believe that there has been no greater power in the entire history of human civilization than the one we have now, available for the first time using computers and complex simulations, in the ability to ask in a meaningful and realistic way:

What if?

Cheers,
Jerry

Regarding Nate's comments about World3 and net energy, Charlie can correct me if I'm wrong, but the World3 model indirectly accounts for net energy in other ways.

These are interesting insights about climate modelers blind spots regarding peak oil. Those generalists who model global dynamics such as the Club of Rome and Odum try to look at both issues. Odum was much more concerned about peak oil than the climate problem. When asked which one would be the bigger problem, his opinion was that fossil fuels would be the most immediate and limiting factor, rather than climate.

Yes, I have Odum's book. His formalism is very interesting and I have often used it as a didactic purposes - it is more pictorially descriptive than the standard images that you get out of s.d. software such as Vensim. Odum's concept of transformity is equivalent to that of EROI/EROEI but more sophisticated and more useful. But most people don't even know what EROI is, imagine trying to explain transformity to them! By the way, at the meeting in Zurich I met one self styled expert on CO2 sequestration who had never heard of EROEI!

True. The same happened to me. I had a discussion with a CCS expert (possibly the same?) about this very issue.

I proposed the following thought experiment to him. He should take his car, drive it for a mile and calculate how much CO2 he emitted into the atmosphere while doing so. Then he should store his car in his garage, not drive it for 20 years, then go to gas station with it to get new gas, and drive the car for another mile.

I told him that he now was emitting more CO2 into the atmosphere than 20 years earlier, because of the shrinking EROEI of the fuel he was using.

According to Charlie Hall, the EROEI of oil was somewhere around 100 when oil exploration started around 1930. You drilled a hole and the oil came gushing out. Now, you get much more dry holes, and the deposits that you drill into (if and when successful) are usually smaller, i.e., you need to drill again sooner. By now, the average EROEI of oil has shrunk by at least a factor of five.

Hence you are spending more energy in producing one barrel of oil than you did earlier, and in calculating the emitted CO2, you need to take into account also the energy used to produce your car and the energy used to produce its fuel.

I believe I finally got this idea anchored in his head, but I am not sure that I succeeded.

...hyperspecialization. It happens also for biological organisms (by the way, today is Darwin's bicentennial).

It's mid-20th century thinking that selection usually or invariably pushes a niche generalist towards specialization, and that the converse rarely or never happens. The fact is that selection fosters adaptation as readily in one direction as in the other. Abundant examples exist of highly specialized species becoming trophic generalists as environmental conditions change.

As for academic specialization, it depends on the discipline. In the Ecology & Evolution program where I did my graduate work, scholastic generalization was highly encouraged. The encyclopedic knowledge of some of the profs was awe inspiring. I was expected to learn everything from techniques of molecular phylogenetics to tropical lotic ecology pretty thoroly. My general ignorance of plants & of inverts has been a professional liability.

Jellyfish, rats, human, we have recently been bombarded with information that says generalists are now trying to fill all the niches of the species being eliminated.

Darwin's first edition of 'Origin' has been my current slog. I noticed he tended to describe the 'perfection' of new varieties as their newly specializing to take advantage of the 'conditions of life' available thus gaining advantage and edging out their less perfected ancestors but his descriptions of the process always allows for the expanding less specialized to essentially shear the specialist from its roots as the specialist confines itself to a narrower set of survival conditions. He just never seems describe it happening in this way. Considering the tree he was building out of the fragments he (and independently Wallace) had pieced together one can hardly consider his not descibing such process a great omission. Although his examples usually imply that 'perfection' of a variety means developing a more specialized adaptivity he never equates 'perfection' with speciallization per se. In its finest distillation Darwin's reasoning seemed never to falter.

Modern science has been mostly reductionist since it proved such a powerful technique over the last couple centuries. Unfortunately, this is reflected in hyperspecialization in academia and there have been strong institutional pressures to keep scientists from "straying" into cross-disciplinary pursuits. The excellent observation that this specialization is analogous to what biological species tend to do is just the sort of comment that one needs an overview to perceive.

Several times I have put together cross-disciplinary teams of scientists to work on specific mission goals, and these would only last as long as funding and strong direction could be supplied; there was a strong tendency for the participants to lose focus and revert to hyperspecialization and tenure tracks. Ironically, making them more well-known for the cross-disciplinary work had the effect of exposing them to more universities and institutes, generating ever more lucrative offers until they were quickly peeled from the work that had made them famous. This amounts to an error-correction mechanism in a system designed for specialization, and there are many of them.

Only sophisticated generalists, who are able to move smoothly between disciplines and describe patterns, will IMO be very useful as advocates and planners. There are relatively few of them, and certainly in the past it was not really possible to get a respected degree in such a thing, so generalists initially had to specialize to get the societal recognition of several degrees and then expand from there.

Some of the most clueless people I've ever met have had advanced degrees, but have been so specialized as to need keepers to feed and dress them. They will toil at their data until death stills their hearts, and work hard every day. But they are clueless about most things, and I don't look to academia to save us. Indeed, by soaking up the "science" funding, they may do more harm than good.

For some reason my mind drifts to scientists working on the ITER fusion reactor, which if all goes well MIGHT provide commercial power in 40 years. The high probability that we will not have the resources in 40 years to built out and maintain a network of giant tokamak fusion reactors is not only not discussed, it would be threatening to their lives. I'm sure we could come up with thousands more such examples.

An enlightening post. I would like to share a positive interdisciplinary science experience. In the late 1980's, in response to the growing resource challanges faced by the industrial society, there emerged a mature group of academics in Australia who began the Bachelor of Applied Science Coastal Resource Management course. This was an interdisciplinary course integrating the life and earth sciences, together with computer science and economics.

As fate would have it, I was one of the first on board in 1989. At the time, the institution was a college of advanced education. The academic environment was small and intimate. The dons there seemed to relish the cross-pollination between the disciplines presented in the course. It also came at a time when there were many scientific breakthroughs-climate change being one that I remember well. My study years certainly left an indellible stamp on me.

Soon after, the institution evolved to be a university (Southern Cross) The course now has multiple strands and is offered in three campuses, and it is thriving.

The seeds (graduates) of this course are scattered all over the world working with diverse, complex resource management issues like tourism management on coral reefs, and fisheries resource allocation. Some have left the machine and then raged against the machine to become activists (including myself).

I think part of the problem is that interdisciplinarity doesn't fit into the way universities run. Consequently, there's no "career structure". You may well fit in in your particular centre which was opened for whatever reason (probably by a specialist who later branched out and could persuade someone to give them some money). But when that goes, or when you want to move on, where will you go? The chances of there being another centre into which you fit is very slim, so you're left competing for jobs in specialisms, and by definition, you're not a specialist. You may have half what they're looking for, but you will be competing against people who have all which they are looking for,

Peter.

Those close to academia are certainly better qualified than me to answer, but IMO specialization often leads one to be defensive of his/her turf. A 'generalist' who points out the pizza has both pepperoni and cheese (I like your analogy) gets a negative reaction from both the cheese specialist and the pepperoni specialist, because the generalist hasn't sufficiently 'paid their dues' in either pepperoni or cheese.

This attitude is poisonous to collaboration in many respects, but academia often rewards deep specialists who self-promote to the top of their professions.

Yes, and also note that departments have budgets. When budgets get tight, those efforts not directly supporting a department get cut. Protecting rice bowls is another form of social endowment survivalism.

I tried to make it as a generalist in academia and the going was tough. I did get a great collaboration going, some grant monies, etc., but then the institution didn't quite understand what I was up to and it wasn't part of their "core" so when funding got tight (post 9/11) they immediately looked at me. By this time I was a bit fed up by it all and left amicably, even while dear colleagues had pledged to take me in.

I really like this post, by the way. I made much the same case and tried to start this sort of conversation some years ago.

If interested see this presentation: http://coexploration.org/biodiversity/html/EarthDay2004_files/v3_documen...

Scroll down to the slide "The Case of the IPCC"

Good presention, nice dense presentation of data and paradigms.

I am not as pessimistic as you are, Ugo.

When I was young (I have been working in Academia for about as many years as you have), I would write a small research proposal to the Swiss National Science Foundation, and more often than not, these proposals were actually being funded.

This approach no longer works. By now, most of the research foundations operate almost exclusively on panel reviews, and they are only funding large research efforts that involve multiple universities ... and usually are (and actually have to be) quite interdisciplinary.

The problem is, the research proposals must still be well focused. They must clearly identify a well-defined research question, and they must document believably, why the research team stands a good chance of solving that identified problem.

What I have seen on many occasions is that research proposals are overly ambitious. Almost invariable, the result will be that one large research proposal is simply a collection of a dozen or so individual smaller research proposals with a poor match between them. This approach is generally doomed to fail.

Maybe what you mean is less that there is no money available for interdisciplinary research than that there is no money available to paint with a wide brush.

I am glad to hear that, Francois. But our different viewpoints probably derive from the fact that we work in different fields. Apart from moonlighting with dynamic models, my main activity is in materials science. There, having large partnership doesn't help improving interdisciplinarity. True, occasionally in a large project there is space for a little budget for doing the funny things. But, on the whole, I see that opportunities for doing something interesting and innovative are disappearing. I may be wrong - I hope so!