Those are good questions. You will remember my financial forecast for 2009 was pretty pessimistic. Matt's financial / peak oil diagram touches on many of the same issues that I have touched on in some of my past posts.

It is not just the United States that is in poor shape. Governments around the world are in poor shape, and the whole system is networked. It seems to me that the there is a significant chance of major breakdown in the next five years. Even if it doesn't happen this quickly, it takes a long time to plan. Because of this, I think readers should be planning as if we will have very much less oil (as in very little oil imports), and our monetary system will no longer work, in the not too distant future. It is possible our electrical system will be affected as well, since electrical workers like to be paid, and a problem with the monetary system could affect them as well.

The current credit crisis is a major problem. It does not take too much imagination to see it spiral out of control, and countries stop buying nearly as many products from each other (to protect local workers, and because of concern about credit of other countries). I doubt that the US would formally become bankrupt, although we might have hyperinflation or massive deflation.

define 'formally bankrupt'...

Governments do not go "formally" bankrupt, they just lose the ability to pay obligations (default), and they lose their ability to make loans from other governments.
Then the currency crashes, and people go back to bartering or using other currency.
Look at the current state of Zimababwe - it takes trillions of their dollars to equal one US$.
If the US cannot pay it's obligations, then services will go away, social security, defense, health, welfare, etc.... Other nations holding the debt may attack to get their money back.

The states are already in bad shape and are now going to the US govt for help just to meet their budgets. What happens when the US cannot help the states? Budgets will get cut by default.
State services in California are about to go to IOUs for payment. Try to buy groceries or electricity with an IOU?

Seems like the states have been heading south ever since Ronnie's ever so popular fed to state block grant system went into play. I never really understood any of it.

The current financial crisis is first and foremost an ecological crisis. I'm still working on that, I can't get a formal handle on it, the "proof" still eludes me. Like proof of water eludes the fish. But Wendell Berry, in his essay on education, writes about how milk producers and milk drinkers need to speak about cows that make too much milk badly. About intuition. Cows that make too much milk are not something that only Monsanto biologists can discuss, but everyone who drinks milk, eats cheese or wears shoes made of leather or shoes that should be made of leather. Anyone that lives in those communities. [And related, we can no longer figure that "fair process" or "due process" produces good results, rather more the opposite, but I digress from my digression.]

Gail, I don't know that you were pessimistic. Zero degrees of separation. Volatility. It's already way "out of control". Hell, our economic system is designed to be "out of control". It's supposed

I suspect your preditions were optimistic. If only because what you and I don't see. We can't factor that in. Other than the suspicion that matters will be worse than we expect. Like the ice. Every dollar, less ice.

Talk to anyone in the 501C3 world. Precious few understand what's going on, but the narrative is the same. No money. Big cuts. Or the munis. No money. Big cuts. [States are different - hey, they are getting all this cash from Obama that they can spend on THIS YEAR'S OPERATING EXPENSES.]

Debt for operating expenses.

My girl, CFO at a largish community C3 is asking about "swadeshi". Yeah.

We're in the crash so we don't see the crash. It's well advanced. Right now, Maine is about to lose 150K acres of organic dairy because of the tanking of milk prices due to bankruptcies in the commodity milk chain. Milk. The budget is already 20% down and running up against all sorts of fixed constraints.

The network needs to be taken down. Keeping it up, $1T, $2T, $4T - hey, geometric growth in bailouts??? Doubling time of what, two months? All those charts at the newscientist a couple of months back - the use of every resource gone geometric. HAL 9000 can't handle that.

And it's not like our monetary system might not work in the near future. It's pretty clear that it has not been working - or that it's been "working" in a destructive manner - for some time. At least the 70s, though the trajectory goes back beyond that. Some literature suggests the concept of permagrowth didn't really get institutionalized until Post WW2. ["Friendly Fascism", Gross among them, also Henry Wallace] I'm not so sure that it's not the human condition, but I am sure that until about that time there were important figures that recognized scale. And now it's only Nate and Herman and Kirkpatrick.

We're not about to go into overshoot. We've been in overshoot since Apollo 13.

Me? I've got 5 trays of test-seedlings under the lights today. Different seedling soil mixes. All saved seed.

cfm, half-farmer in Gray, ME

"Like proof of water eludes the fish"

That is a classic quote. It sounds like something that came out of the Kung Fu TV show.
thank you grasshopper.

Cows Milk is for Baby Cows, not for Humans. Human Breast Milk is for Humans, and only for a few years at that.

Everyone would be much the wiser, and better off if all the subsidies stopped and all the milk (DAIRY) producers went out of business.

Grow veggies on that land, man.....

But it's so yummy!