I think that once transmission crosses between ethnic and language groups it becomes vulnerable. One person with a stick of dynamite can take out an HVDC cable and that could lead to cascading failures at the other end. We saw this last week in southern Australia. It wasn't dynamite but an overheating inverter that removed 700 MW from the system and suburban substations 1000km away failed. Old folks died in the 46C/115F heat because their electric fans stopped.

I guess you could build cross border transmission then wait and see how often it gets blown up. At the same time it might be best to have sufficient local generation to get by. This is the efficiency vs resilience tradeoff.

Its the sole path that leads to a lot of the vulnerability ... multiple paths substantially reduce the risk.

Which is, of course, why Oz exporting electricity directly to SEA via Indonesia is problematic unless it is feasible to also run a line to the Philippines via PNG, and that is longer than the current longest landline HVDC in the DRC.

That's why exporting energy indirectly to SEA via production of an energy intensive agricultural like NH3 seems far likelier ... there are multiple paths, with the possibility of using east coast and west coast ports if there is a problem getting product out via Darwin.