Jeff, I think you're mistaken in thinking that protracted barter negotiations would produce more volatility than minute-by-minute trading. Earlier you rightly reckoned that delayed responses are a cause of volatility. Surely the cumbersome barter would be a similar delayed response adding to volatility. Curiously I've been noticing erratic price movements of canned fish which were of very stable price for many years. I think the retailers are now struggling to work out what the price "should" be (with oil being a major cost for fishing fleets). And fish cans with sunflower oil now have a 2p premium presumably reflecting the value of the oil.

As for maintaining the smoke and mirrors - just about everyone desperately wants to believe we can continue without a disastrous crash. But it's already becoming very hard to maintain that faith. Even the uk prime criminal oops minister recently committed the ultimate taboo --told the truth!-- saying we are in uncharted waters without historical precedent.

What will cause the next rise? There doesn't look to be an end of contraction in the coming year or years. But there will presumably be an ongoing supply decline leading to at first a gradual price increase. But when the consequences of the present underinvestment hit home, the resulting price hike could easily wipe out all confidence and terminally shatter the global system in my reckoning. Assuming that hasn't happened already for other reasons.