 | Some Thoughts on the Obama Energy Agenda from the Perspective of Net Energy | The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: February 10, 2009 |  |
16 comments on USA Gulf of Mexico Oil Production Forecast Update
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16 comments on USA Gulf of Mexico Oil Production Forecast Update
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GAIA Host Collective
Ace,
First thank you for all your hard work in putting this together. Your forecast shows a 3 ½% decline rate going forward. My question is in your opinion will the adverse conditions in the credit markets have the effect of cancelling any major projects & therefore make for a far steeper decline rate?
Tremain,
The 3.5% pa decline rate is the observed decline rate from the peak in June 2002 to now. As many of the large capacity additions from projects scheduled for 2009 and 2010 are already under construction, the adverse credit markets should not affect those additions. Consequently, the decline rate from 2008 to 2010 might be very small.
Beyond 2010, the decline rate will probably be greater than 3.5% per year as sanctioned additions are small - 2011, Droshky, Ozona, Liberty, 60 kbd; 2012, Caesar, Tonga, 50 kbd; and 2014, Puma, Tubular Bells, 80 kbd.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects
Some smaller field developments will probably be suspended at these low prices. For example, Callon Petroleum suspended its Entrada field development late last year.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=BW&Date=200811...
Entrada's 2P reserves are only 57 mboe of oil and gas and located in 4,650 feet of water so oil prices needs to be at least $70/barrel for economic viability.
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS145755+12-Feb-2008+BW200...