240 comments on Fire or Ice? The role of peak fossil fuels in climate change scenarios
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240 comments on Fire or Ice? The role of peak fossil fuels in climate change scenarios
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I agree (not necessarily about the Dust Bowl). I expect to see a spike in temperatures over the next few years, as manufacturing declines and the resulting smog levels drop. We've already seen how particulate matter caused 'global coolong' in the mid century (as soon as we cleaned up the smog, AGCC resumed right where it had left off). Reduced smog levels letting in extra warming is one of those unintended consequences we hear about all the time.
I'm not sure what options there are to counteract this. There have been suggestions of the pragmatic (spew inert particulates into the air, long-term consequences unknown) to the ludicrous (massive orbital solar blinds). Perhaps we could simply require everyone to paint their rooves a light colour, to reflect the heat as we reduce particulate emissions.
The 9/11 effect when airplanes where grounded supports that this will be and issue. And as Andrew noted above our carbon sinks my be getting full.
This article is extreme and I don't necessarily agree with its conclusions but it seems to have a lot of info.
http://www.alternet.org/environment/32903
I used Dust Bowl as and example no telling what will really happen since the pollution patterns are different now.
The key point is that most of the evidence indicates that current C02 levels are sufficient to put the earth on a warming trend as has occurred naturally in the past. In fact they are probably a lot higher than levels that actually triggered a warming cycle in the past.
This suggests that natural feedback loops are already running and its doubtful we can stop the warming the only issue is how high will it go ? Probably continued use of fossil fuels at this point makes the eventual peak temperatures exponentially worse as trends are accelerated and loops run faster then they ever have in the past. Not only have we probably triggered a major warming trend but we probably are supercharging it.
This is where thoughts about local climate issues i.e global dimming because of pollution are important. I suspect we have a lot of micro feedback loops we triggered methane release etc etc that will cause a lot higher temperatures and faster warming then the global models indicate. I don't think they really model this sort of spreading micro climate change.
Think of it like a lot of isolated bacteria growing exponentially in their local environments then covering the whole area. Or think about a large glass window and shoot small pellets randomly at the window. Each pellet leaves only a small crack but even with a random pattern the entire window is soon shattered.
Our climate models can't really model this sort of concept its outside the scope but it does suggest that if this is right then the models are off by several orders of magnitude in their results both in time and in extremes.
The recent changes in arctic ice cover which are from a similar concept un-modeled cracking and erosion of the ice is a huge factor its effectively the same as the pellet idea and it seems to have result in a order of magnitude faster decline. So a high end projection would basically take our current climate models and multiply the temperature changes by ten and dived the time intervals by 10.
I really think that by doing this you get something thats within a order of magnitude of what will really happen. It may be twice as fast or extreme as what really happens but its much closer I suspect than our current models. Thus something forecast to happen in 100 years probably will occur within 10 or 20 years.
Before mankind forest fires probably played the role of providing global dimming early in a warming cycle only to have even faster warming once they ended.
Eventually as far as I can tell the cycle ends with large deserts on the continents and wind blowing dust into the ociean causing alagae blooms and plankton blooms eventually resulting in large oil deposits.
We have this right now with the Sahara for example so think of most of the world looking like the Sahara for say up to 1 million years before the system finally cools.
"The key point is that most of the evidence indicates that current C02 levels are sufficient to put the earth on a warming trend as has occurred naturally in the past".
We have been in the longest interglacial period for long time. IMO this must make us vulnerable to runaway warming and biospheric dystrophy.
Without arguing about anything else, it's very well established that the Dust Bowl was caused:
a) By *really* bad farming and ranching practices [speaking as an old farmboy, who grew up on a 100-year-old farm that still had topsoil]
b) And the inevitable drought episode.
The Wikipedia entry on Dust Bowl is OK.
One of the strongest predictions of climate models is that warming temperatures induce changes to Hadley Cell circulation, one of whose effects is long-term drought in the US Southwest.
What caused the drought ?
What caused the Hadley Cell circulation to change ?
Global dimming can work in reverse as industrial output slows.
I think its interesting actually that the heat island effect of cities is well known yet how a city effects the regional then lager climate patters is barely studied. Obviously how the soil is tilled and when it is tilled changes the moisture content of the soils. And obviously changes in coal burning change the amount of particulate matter in the air but the combination of the two or even both individually are not well studied at the climate level.
Another example I'm interested in moving to Oregon a lot of the cities now have flooding problems I found it interesting that houses that had been built 50-100 years ago now where being flooded obviously the flood peaks had probably increased. A suspicious cause is of course removal of the forest cover. Although this obvious link is actually debated. However moving outward increased erosion is so obvious that its accepted by all this dumps more sediments into the streams and thence into the ocean which in turn acts to increase algae blooms helped along of course with our fertilizers. These blooms eventually cause the dead zone ocean conditions as the material rots. This may withdraw C02 and it might add methane who knows I've not found any studies. But my point is that local changes can eventually cause larger regional changes. How these are linked into our larger regional climate systems seems to be a real blank spot.
In general the interest focuses eventually on water vapor the forgotten greenhouse gas.
http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Ge-Hy/Global-Warming-and-the-Hydrologic...
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gases.html#wv
Sorry for such a large quote but I got the impression from your response that you felt that you understood the cause from a wiki entry on the dust bowl.
I'd suggest its more complex and that we don't really understand what we have done. The combination of particulate and sulfur dioxide pollution from industrialization and various farming practices regardless of how well they control erosion since its soil moisture thats the issue do influence the local water vapor cycles and thence the global climate. My opinion is we will soon learn that C02 is really only a cycle initiator and that changes in water vapor dominate the climate cycle.
I didn't learn this from a Wiki entry, that was just a convenient pointer.
My father had a B.S. in Agronomy.
I grew up on a farm that had been in the family for 100 years. Farm kids learn about groundcover, crop rotation, contour plowing, before they're 10.
In any case, even without that, it was certainly covered in AP American History, in my Pennsylvania high school, circa 1963. These days, many schools teach this history in middle school. IOf course, *everybody* could be wrong...
Here's a map of Dust Bowl area. Here's a map of *current* coal plants. I don't have a map handy for 1930, but the population & industry was more concentrated in the NorthEast than now.
The sulfate/acid rain issue was primarily in the NorthEast, where the heavy industry was concentrated. When I was growing up near Pittsburgh, PA, in the 1950s, the pollutions was awful if you went downtown ... i.e., I'm quite familiar with particulate matter in the air, because I could see it as I drove 20 miles South into Pittsburgh.
The Dust Bowl didn't have that kind and density of industry there or upwind.
People certainly do study UHI & related effects on local climate.
See Mark Jacobson at Stanford.
I'm not sure why water vapor is a forgotten GHG. Climate scientists I talk to know about it. So does the IPCC.
There's always more to know, but one more time:
1) The usual oscillations cause periodic droughts, especially in the US Southwest.
2) If you farm and ranch in *really dumb* ways in such an area, sooner or later it catches up with you. The US Government spent a lot of effort to change the practices.