Depletion Thoughts #2 - On Octuplets and Lifeboat Ethics

Below the fold is a guest post from Cornelius pointing out the impact of having 14 children, from a standpoint of Garret Hardin's Lifeboat Ethics.



(The Suleman Octuplets)

A major story this past week was when unemployed mother Nadya Suleman had fertility enhanced octuplets in addition to her existing 6 children. Leaving aside the mental health, social, environmental and ethical implications for the moment, lets first highlight energy.

The average american uses just under 60 barrels of oil equivalent in primary energy (Source BP Satisitical Review 2008). If these California octuplets and their 6 existing brothers and sisters each attain life expectancy of 78 years, that is 14 x 60 x 78 = 65,520 barrel of oil equivalents in their lifetime. For arguments sake - extrapolating – if they follow their mothers cultural/genetic fecundity and each have 14 children of their own who in turn each also have 14 children, then the total lifetime primary energy consumption in this hominid pyramid is 14 x 14 x 14 x 60 x 78 = 12,841,920 boe, which at todays rates is 58 days of oil use for the entire country of Italy (Source, BP 2008). Whether this energy quality can change from fossil to renewable during their lifetimes is not the point. One may be confident that other scarce resources will come into play during those generations.

As atrocious as an unemployed 33 year old with 14 children on welfare appears, this could be a watershed moment in a nations acknowledgement of resource limits. Media and social backlash against this story suggests the general citizenry knows something is wrong with this picture, even without making the explicit leap to resource limitations. Though the media has not yet extrapolated these childrens future energy footprints, outrage seems ubiquitous that an unemployed woman and her doctor freely planned to create octuplets without regard to the implications for others. Perhaps the extremeness of this example called peoples attention to the high contrast in social turpitude. If so, what other less egregius examples might come under scrutiny if folks had opportunity to analyze what is happening planet-wide? Where on the spectrum of right and wrong, and legal and illegal, will the lines be drawn? If 14 children on welfare is beyond the pale, what about 10, or 6 or 4 or 2?

On another level, extra social resources need to be diverted to nourish and support the premature size and condition of these babies. In a world of finite limits, when, (if ever) will we reach a point where certain thresholds of social triage, long subsidized by cheap energy and shared promise of economic growth, becomes accepted by society? Similarly, the vast majority of average medical expenditures is spent during the final 6 months of a patients life. When will some ask 'towards what end?'

If population numbers are an issue, and population health/quality becomes an issue, how can population equality not be? High wealth and income disparity has also been prominent in the news via the unfolding retroactive executive limits to pay at $500,000 per year (the median income per household member, including all working and non-working members above the age of 14, was $26,036 in 2006). What is the proper ratio of top vs bottom tier income/wealth in a civil society? Plato believed it was a factor of four. Universities, civil services and the military have managed a factor of between ten and twenty, far below the ratio of 500 prevalent in the US corporate sector. If having 14 children triggers peoples sense of morality at 'using more than ones share', at what point does that sentiment permeate into economics, where it is clear that everyone cannot become a Rockefeller or Rothschild?



(Image- Lifeboat from the Andrea Dorea )

Lifeboat ethics is a metaphor for resource distribution proposed by the ecologist Garrett Hardin in 1974. Hardin's metaphor details a lifeboat bearing 50 people, which has room for ten more. The lifeboat is in an ocean surrounded by a hundred swimmers. The "ethics" of the situation stems from whether and under what circumstances swimmers should be taken aboard the lifeboat.

Here are the concluding paragraphs from Hardin's Lifeboat Ethics: the Case Against Helping the Poor:

We Americans of non-Indian ancestry can look upon ourselves as the descendants of thieves who are guilty morally, if not legally, of stealing this land from its Indian owners. Should we then give back the land to the now living American descendants of those Indians? However morally or logically sound this proposal may be, I, for one, am unwilling to live by it and I know no one else who is. Besides, the logical consequence would be absurd. Suppose that, intoxicated with a sense of pure justice, we should decide to turn our land over to the Indians. Since all our other wealth has also been derived from the land, wouldn't we be morally obliged to give that back to the Indians too?

Clearly, the concept of pure justice produces an infinite regression to absurdity. Centuries ago, wise men invented statutes of limitations to justify the rejection of such pure justice, in the interest of preventing continual disorder. The law zealously defends property rights, but only relatively recent property rights. Drawing a line after an arbitrary time has elapsed may be unjust, but the alternatives are worse.

We are all the descendants of thieves, and the world's resources are inequitably distributed. But we must begin the journey to tomorrow from the point where we are today. We cannot remake the past. We cannot safely divide the wealth equitably among all peoples so long as people reproduce at different rates. To do so would guarantee that our grandchildren and everyone else's grandchildren, would have only a ruined world to inhabit.

To be generous with one's own possessions is quite different from being generous with those of posterity. We should call this point to the attention of those who from a commendable love of justice and equality would institute a system of the commons, either in the form of a world food bank, or of unrestricted immigration. We must convince them if we wish to save at least some parts of the world from environmental ruin.

Without a true world government to control reproduction and the use of available resources, the sharing ethic of the spaceship is impossible. For the foreseeable future, our survival demands that we govern our actions by the ethics of a lifeboat, harsh though they may be. Posterity will be satisfied with nothing less.

It seems that issues related to reproduction, resource use and equality are coiling into a loaded spring- perhaps the octuplet example allows an opportunity to discuss these important but uncomfortable issues. Somewhere between 1 child and 14 lies an inflection point. Somewhere between an average salary and one 1000 times the average lies an inflection point. Somewhere between equality/justice for all and one dictator (benign or otherwise) lies an inflection point. Where society finds equilibrium on these 'lifeboat levels' is a question worthy of discussion. (And who will be discussing these questions is also a question worthy of discussion).

Is there anything to discuss? Does anyone with a scintilla of intelligence really still question the need for a lower population on this planet? Julian Simon is dead (an early death, thankfully), and his ideas are dead too. As David Attenborough said: “Instead of controlling the environment for the benefit of the population, maybe we should control the population to ensure the survival of our environment.” And won't people start controlling their numbers automatically when life starts getting more and more difficult? You can take the idiot with 14 kids as an exemplar, but isn't she merely an insignificant outlier? I have one child, and he is determined to have none. These days, large families are becoming relatively rare, unlike my parents generation.

Is there anything to discuss? Does anyone with a scintilla of intelligence really still question the need for a lower population on this planet?

There are plenty of people, including many on this forum, who will cheerfully submit that population is not a problem and then quote UN calculations saying that it will peak around 2050 at a mere billion or two more than it is now.

As long as immigration continues, it is clear that a majority of Americans feel that America, in fact, has a lower population than is ideal. Although, few, if any would be able to give the ideal population to shoot for in America.

1. Population is a problem.
2. I am not cheerful about it.
3. It is true that population will peak around 2050, but with more than a "mere"
billion or two more than now; something like 3 billion more, probably.
4. Fortunately, fertility is dropping off a cliff nearly everywhere except
Africa. Hence, we are on a trajectory to max-out as the UN says, mid-century.
Thank heaven.
5. Population is a serious problem, about which not much can be done at
this late date. Most of the big action was decades ago. Demographics move
very slowly. For the next few decades, the die is pretty much cast, with
modest possible exceptions (e.g. aggressive development of birth control
and family planning initiatives in Africa).
6. Consumption is a more-serious problem, about which a great deal can
be done even at this late date.

No its far worse than that.

Fertility is declining for some people who choose to see their destiny. This leaves an increasing proportion of assholes to occupy earth. These assholes will choose 14 kids etc.

Darwin 'got it' 200 years ago. Only compulsory PLANETARY population limits can work.

Fertility is declining for some people who choose to see their destiny.

I think it is a very small percentage of couples who have small families because they want to help the planet. I think most do it because it helps them. Fewer children means less money expended in total and/or more money expended per child. The same holds true for time with/related-to the children - less overall, and/or more per child.

Having only one child, 27 years ago, for us involved both thoughts of our own economic situation AND thoughts about the planet. It's not one or the other. And may the people who breed like rabbits be damned.

Maybe you've already seen it, but there is a movie called "Idiocracy" that addresses the topic. It's only so-so but it does illustrate the problem.

Sustainability as regards group fertility control - it doesn't work. If the idea is to keep the low classes of society relatively small to the upper-middle class and elites, and assuming more than zero mobility between classes, no, it doesn’t make sense to stop certain people from giving birth unless you believe in eugenics. Rather, you must believe in the workings and the very human breakdowns of class dynamics to work (or not work, causing sustainable levels of violence) to democratically limit the risks to humanity caused by population sustainability issues.

"Assholes" don't necessarily beget assholes. You are not the first man on earth, and if you don't want to be one of the last, then you can't enforce population controls on people.

"Assholes" don't necessarily beget assholes

They do, actually. Personality types are hereditary — you can look to the canine species for an example. Terriers beget terriers, shepherds beget shepherds, and retrievers beget retrievers. Much of the terrier hunt/kill tendency is inborn, as is the retriever tendency to fetch things. It's much more difficult to get them to learn the non-innate behavior.

Yes, dogs are a perfect example. We should adopt a eugenics program and breed a highly intelligent, low energy consumption, naturally spiritual variety of human, call it homo noeticus, and then all commit suicide like lemmings. We are all going to die shortly anyway.

I've seen intellectuals here make comments like "It is well known that breeding has no influence on outcome of individuality". What a lot of self evident crap, speak to breeders of working dogs. Breeding is everything. I own a Australian Cattle Dog that is more intelligent than the majority of humans

Solve the worlds problems, buy a handgun and one bullet, engrave your name on the bullet. (Yes I already have my engraved bullet with hangun).

Excuse me, I'm gearing up for a great week on the End of Days Newschanell.

People with siblings (or people that know people with siblings) might disagree slightly.

Quite. My wife and I chose not to have children when we were married in 1985 because we saw this coming. No vasectomy nor contraception, pulling out in time worked for us, but I was born lucky.

"Assholes" don't necessarily beget assholes.

Actually they do. In fact, we are all "assholes". Read Jay Hanson's Do The Math to understand why:

DO THE MATH
by Jay Hanson – 12/05/05

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/killer_ape-peak_oil/files/do_the_math...

Evolution doesn't conserve "individuals", it conserves "genes". What
type of behavior will evolve? Do the math!

Assume that two fundamental "genetic sets" (strains of people) exist
in a tribe of primitive people. Each group is represented by ten
pairs. Further assume that each tribe loses 30% of its population
every twenty years due to war, disease, and famine.

Members of gene set #1 are intelligent, honest, and forward looking.

The mating pairs in this set only have two children and limit personal
consumption because they know the tribe is over carrying capacity
(many die of starvation every twenty years). After 20 years, this set
has 20 adults + 20 children = 40 members.

Members of gene set #2 are stupid, corrupt, chronic liars, and only
care about the present. The mating pairs in this set consume ten times
as many resources as the first group and have an average of ten
children before the females die. After 20 years, this set has 10
adults (females dead) + 100 children = 110 members.

A famine kills 30% of each tribe. Now, set # 1 has only 28 members,
while set # 2 has 77 members. The tribe now has total of 105 members.

The fraction of gene set #1 will continue to shrink till it dies out.

What kind of people will be selected? Obviously, it's people who are
stupid, corrupt, chronic liars and only care about the present. The
ancestors of everyone alive today were selected by a process something
like the one described above.

That's an oversimplistic scenario that not only totally disregards between-group selection but also ignores the positive effects of altruism on within-group coherence and unity.

In other words, it's bad science--"science" with a political agenda.

Bad science? Says who?

positive effects of altruism on within-group coherence and unity.

Patriotism. People will unite alright. They will unite for resources wars. They will fight for our country's freedom. (sarcasm off)

Bad Science? Says who? Says me.

(1) most traits have a relatively low heritability in the first place, behaviors in the context of a social setting must have far lower heritability than most. If you want me to pay attention do not talk about a gene "for" something.

(2) The idea that genes are preserved is a deceit of Richard Dawkins. He is wrong. "genes" as actors are highly dependent on context both genetic and environmental. As such we need to recognize that selection acts on whole phenotypes, and genes are only one of the things that begets a phenotype. Do not talk to me of genes for altruism.

(3) As already alluded to, if there is a species that is subject to multilevel selection it is humans. Group selection can clearly favor reproductive restraint.

(4) humans are notorious for adjusting their fertility based on social and economic issues. US reproductive rates went way down during the depression and way up after WWII. Similarly, many natural fertility societies will control their fertility to bring it in line with their environment (you don't want to know how they do it).

My feeling is that fertility in the world will drop due to social and economic pressures. Sadly, I have been a population biologist too long to believe that that will be enough. The urge to reproduce is strong, and I have yet to see a species that left to its own devices will not grow to the point of out-stripping its resources. When we raise insects in the lab and forget to keep close track of their population numbers one of four things eventually happens. (a) the population grows to the point of destroying the finite resources we give it, (b) they poison themselves with their own excrement (c) a disease (there is a notorious disease our bugs get infected with) or (d) some strains avoid all this by being incredibly anti-social (read cannibalistic) and therefore keeping their population down. As far as I can tell I have never seen evidence for anything other than one of these really pretty dismal outcomes in our beetles. I pray that humans are smarter than insects, but I wouldn't count on it.

Really? You're going to go right ahead and tell all those muslims you're going to decide how many children they can have? Well, good luck with that.

As long as immigration continues, it is clear that a majority of Americans feel that America, in fact, has a lower population than is ideal.

That's incorrect.  Immigration into the USA is not under the control of the majority of Americans, who want it to be strictly under legal procedure and reduced.  The people who actually control immigration do not care what the majority of Americans want; they want cheap labor, social strife to justify their positions and programs, and voting constituencies beholden to them.

It is interesting how this post started out with the idea that there was very little to argue about, large populations that consume non-renewable resources come up against limitations. Further down when it is discussed how to reach a sustainable population level, it becomes apparent how intractable our political culture is to this and the accusations start flying. Even many of the 'environmentally' aware cling to the old political paradigm of democracy for solutions.

I have found most Climate Change activists are frequently no better than mainstream people when thinking about a highly consumptive population (I have literally discussed the problem with hundreds of them). Technology is frequently seen as the answer for both food and energy. Very few people seem to understand our culture is one of Detritovores (dependant on long dead organisms, fossil fuels). CO2 can be seen as a waste product of this prosthetic metabolism by much of our technology. Renewable energy is no more than a prosthetic for consuming other non-renewable resources. (William Catton's book Overshoot is a classic if anyone is interested in the population dilemma.)

Maybe there are technological solutions to both climate change, environmental degradation and resource depletion that would sustain our current or even larger population. But is seems pretty obvious that our right of 'energy entitlement' culture needs to change.

Is there a solution to this problem - yes, teaching ecological science in schools, accepting that humans have limits and the population may be far over that limit, western society has the biggest problem and our political culture needs to radically change. Will this happen though?

To me it is likely humans will come into balance with our resources via the four horse men of the apocalypse. I genuinely wish there was another way, but the collective political culture see no limits. As the G7 have declared full steam ahead with our economic paradigm.

Population: it's now how big it is, it's what you do with it.

The 14 kids of an unemployed woman are going to grow up to be among the least-consuming people in the US. They'll grow up poor. They'll consume less in their lifetimes than the 1 child of a PhD woman married to some accountant and living on Long Island.

Of course those 14 poor US children will still consume more than 140 poor Indian children. But there you go.

Naturally, both population and consumption create impact. But we can humanely reduce consumption, at least in the West. We could halve average consumption overnight with no real decline in living standard. We cannot humanely halve population in anything less than a few generations.

Of course, the best way to stabilise and then reduce population is to increase the education, prosperity and political power of women in the Third World. Strangely, the middle-classed white males of the West talking about the horrific dangers of overpopulation don't talk about this solution much.

I normally agree with 98% of your posts, though I don't believe that we can assume these 14 children will consume less than the child of a PhD woman, who may be smart enough to understand resource constraints (I know two PhD women who are green; one bike commutes, the other commutes by bus). If the accountant is the driving factor here, then that's a different situation.

Strangely, the middle-classed white males of the West talking about the horrific dangers of overpopulation don't talk about this solution much.

What are suggestions to accomplishing this?

They may bike or bus, but what else do they do? How much electricity do they use each day, and how is it generated? What do they eat? Do they fly internationally for conferences? And so on.

There are many ways to be an energy and resource glutton. You have to look at the overall impact. And the overall impact of a wealthym well-educated person in the West is usually though not always going to be greater than the overall impact of a poor uneducated person in the West. Of course there are always exceptions, but that's why I spoke of what's likely.

Increasing the education, prosperity and political power of women in Third World countries is something the UN does through its various agencies, and which is also attempted by the more thoughtful charities such as Kiva International. What gets in the way is a combination of violent dictatorship in the home country and greedy self-interest and interference from the elites of the West acting on our behalf.

Her 14 children will become an additional 2.1 million people, on an already overcrowded planet, a thousand years from now.
http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias/population.php

Her 14 children will become an additional 2.1 million people, on an already overcrowded planet, a thousand years from now.

How many more additional Americans will there be a thousand years from now in an already overcrowded country from over 1 million legal and over half a million illegal immigrants this year?

Except that if 14 kids have 14 kids in 33 years, not at a planetary average growth rate, you get over 7.5 million in 6 generation or about 200 years.

Or maybe not. I would not be surprised if she has zero grandchildren. Most of the 14 are going to be disabled in various ways, and with the economy and ecosystem collapsing, they may not have access to Ms. Suleman's level of support.

Very nice post!

I have read that smaller numbers of children are more likely when a government makes provision to take care of the elderly in their old age. If people have to depend on their children, they are likely to have several to make certain there is at least one who survives them.

If we become a poorer world, it will be more difficult to provide adequate Social Security and Medicare (or the equivalent) for the older generation. Birth control will also become more difficult to obtain. I wonder to what extent these issues will work against declining birth rates.

I think it may be a bit more complicated than that, Gail. The many children survival strategy has a historical basis but I'm not sure it applies to current conditions. We have diverse examples these days. Russia - population decline due to economic and social deterioration. Japan - stable or declining population plus increased life span. United States - moderate population increase due largely to immigration mainly by people with religious beliefs that demand many children.

Somewhere between 1 child and 14 lies an inflection point.

With the current population overshoot, the inflection point might be better between zero and one and for several generations. There should be no tax benefit to procreation. The maxim "it takes a whole village to raise a child" should be accepted more literally. Comprehensive education would help - but this is looking increasingly unaffordable. Education should be a lifelong endeavor with childhood emphasis on developing the skills required to become educated.

A fundamental premise of the law is that life is precious, yet we are daily bombarded with images and sensations that desensitize us. Over 40,000 deaths per annum on USA roads - and life is precious?

If a community of 100 people could only have 10 children, then you would see significant cultural changes in the value of those lives and the investment made in them. As a civilization we would become significantly risk averse - and that would include not taking chances with our planet.

The irony about reducing our numbers voluntarily is while the intelligent people reduce their offspring (they already have) the people who are least "fit" outproduce them. See Garrett Hardin's Tragedy of The Commons" http://dieoff.org/page95.htm

When humans were evolving from Hunter Gatherers to Agricultural Communities, agricultural work required more hands to sow seeds and bring in the harvest. Natural selection favored tribes with high fertility rates. Prior to that Hunter Gatherer's foraged in a finite environment so more mouths to feed was a disadvantage. Females in Hunter Gatherer communities would often stop ovulating during times of hardship.

Although early agriculture was grueling and required far more work than a hunter gatherer existence it gave rise to "elites". These elites brought civilization with all of its merits and pitfalls including war.

Civilization became the dominant paradigm in large part due to high fertility.

Classic r/K selection theory:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-species

Joe

Indeed. My intellectual parents were born in 1921 and 1922. They had three children during the baby boom. All were college educated professionals. Two chose not to have children for a mixture of personal reasons and environmental concerns. Thus my parents have only two grandchildren. If everyone in the last two generations had acted the same as my family, the world population would be naturally falling towards 1 billion before 2030. Neither peak oil nor climate change nor world hunger would currently be problems.

Maori activist Titewhai Harawira recently celebrated the birth of her 49th grandchild. Her son Hone is a Maori Party MP. The slogan of the Maori Party is "Our people are out greatest resource." Assuming no local dieoff, Maoris will be the majority again in NZ in the second half of the century. At some point, New Zealand European nationalists might respond by increasing their birth rates as well.

Similar policies of pronatalism has been seen by the Catholic and Mormon Churches. In colonial times, it was illegal for Catholics to settle in South Carolina. Other than Maryland, the rest of the colonies were not much more welcoming. Now there is a Catholic majority on the US Supreme Court. This is a situation the founding fathers could not have imagined. Likewise, the Mormon church has progressed from being a fringe desert polygamist cult to an economic and political powerhouse due to the power of their high birth rates.

Family size limitation is futile unless mandatory and enforcable.

Family size limitation is futile unless mandatory and enforcable.

US family size reduction wouldn't have to be mandatory to lower it. You could lower it if the government gave no income tax credit or child care subsidy for any children after the second born to a woman, and required any children after the second born to a woman to pay the full cost of attending their local public school. But any government action taken to encourage lower family sizes, would need to be done in conjunction with a stoppage of immigration. Right now immigration is the most sacred of sacred cows so it is out of the question to think of government encouraged family size reduction.

I agree that we need to limit populaiton size.

Eliminating the tax credit for a third child would have little effect on rich people. Do we need to do something else if we want to stop them from having large families?

And eliminating the tax credit on children in poor families only punishes the children who didn't ask to be born number 3 in a poor family.

Does anybody knows a practical way of limiting family size short of forced sterilization of parents?

And maybe we need to limit to 1 child per family, not 2. See my comments below.

Eliminating the tax credit for a third child would have little effect on rich people. Do we need to do something else if we want to stop them from having large families?

I don't have any stats, but I would bet that the rich don't have large families as it is.

And eliminating the tax credit on children in poor families only punishes the children who didn't ask to be born number 3 in a poor family.

I think it would monetarily affect all children and both adults in the family, not just the 3rd (or later).

And maybe we need to limit to 1 child per family, not 2. See my comments below.

Would you be in favor of immigration (both legal and illegal) continuing as family size was limited?

Yes, eliminating the tax credit hurts all of the family. The problem is that I don't see this as a very effective means of preventing poor people from having children, especially if their income tax is minimal to begin with. And if we have a tax policy sufficient to deter poor people from having children, the children that continue to be born to such families will be made to suffer. I can't see how making poor children suffer more is a solution to the problem.

Yes, eliminating the tax credit hurts all of the family. The problem is that I don't see this as a very effective means of preventing poor people from having children, especially if their income tax is minimal to begin with. And if we have a tax policy sufficient to deter poor people from having children, the children that continue to be born to such families will be made to suffer. I can't see how making poor children suffer more is a solution to the problem.

If the income tax is minimal, the cost of paying for the public school education won't be. However poor the family makes themselves, they will be richer than the vast majority of the world's families. Are most of the families in the world suffering? And they also will have the benefit of the extra children that they desired. Clearly they would see an enrichment of their lives from that. Also, the religious groups cherish large families and will probably help out. It will be a good way to get people who want population growth to pay for it, rather than having everyone pay for it. In a similar fashion, the business leaders and real estate developers and their paid politicians who cherish and profit from immigration should bear all the costs of it.

You didn't address the question on immigration. Is it such a sacred cow that American families should limit the number of children they have while the government takes in a never ending stream of people?

You didn't address the question on immigration.

We are playing dueling subjects here, FiniteQuantity. I am talking about limiting world population. You seem to be dealing with immigragrion and the size of the U.S. Population. Your question is irrelevant to my topic.

If you can read French, I described such a way in my blog.
It consists of the people having to choose between work and parenthood. In other words, professionalize parenthood. Those who choose to be parent will have to make that activity full time and be paid for raising their children. They not only raise children, they wil have to go to scholl to learn how to raise them.
Having children is not only a right, it is a responsibility. If you desire to have children, you will need to assume totally that responsability and give up your other professionnal activities. It doesn't only concerns potential mothers, it of course also concerns potential fathers.
I'm convinced that given that choice, many people will freely choose not to have children at all. This will let a mean of less than 2 children per woman even if those who choose to have children have big families (which is good for the children); well, maybe not up to 14.

This is sure fire way to wipe out French culture forever. All your immigrants will breed like mad while your native Francos will go to work to pay them to do it! Cultural suicide.

Does anybody knows a practical way of limiting family size short of forced sterilization of parents?

Hmm, let's see, peak oil, climate change, global economic collapse, and breakdown of civilization's safety nets. Then Momma Nature delivers a coup de grâce with a little mutation, and voilà, no need to worry about forced sterilization anymore. Ain't nature wonderful?

WHO warns of rising bird flu pandemic risk

According to the group, the bird flu virus is now endemic in Asia, Africa and parts of Europe as the disease continues to spread in bird populations. There's great concern that at some point the virus will mutate into a new version that is easily spread among humans. Even in its current strains bird flu has infected 382 people and killed 241 of them--an astonishingly high rate of death for a virus. Indonesia has been the hardest hit, counting 108 deaths from the virus.

We aren't going to enforce anything like that with a majority of Catholics on the Supreme Court!

As someone said above, the die is cast.

Ahhhh. That is a problem. You know that The Catholic Church is synonymous with Wormwood, The Mother of all Harlots and 666. I could explain but no one will let me.

Well said. Muslim immigrants have the same high birth rates in Western countries and it is not inconceivable that they could come to dominate western nations later this century.

The thing is, they are prepared to accept a lifestyle that is so much lower than what the intellectual classes in order to have those children. Consumerism is replaced by community and the mosque is the centre of life rather than the mall.

My experience with non-breeding intellectuals is that they continue to selfishly have a high entropy lifestyle which includes "nice things" such as pricey art, collectibles, overseas trips, dining out, fine wine driving a Prius, PV on the roof etcetera, which turns out to use as much energy as the Muslim family with five kids who live in 3 bedroom fibro cottage in western Sydney.

The cultural disposition to consumption is equally important as population size.

The irony about reducing our numbers voluntarily is while the intelligent people reduce their offspring (they already have)

The real irony is that while the developed countries lower their native birth rates they allow business and governments to counteract it via legal and illegal immigration. Even Russia is now taking a seat at the immigration table. Population growth is good for business and their bribed government officials, and bad for the workers/taxpayers. And yet the workers/taxpayers/voters not only allow the practice, they, for the most part, applaud it. A real testament to the ability of authority to control opinions via propaganda and the creation of a sacred cow.

What lovely eugenic nonsense you're spouting.

Now we are getting down to it.

It seems to me that either we create a fair and equitable Global Power Down which would require a Global entity to orchestrate.

Or

We go right to the edge and do a forced global power down, not in a nice way, as they say.

The UN could possibly be this entity and there was a period when I was optimistic about this organization, however it seems TPTB (right?) feel threatened by the UN and have done quite a bit to undermine it, and the J6Pers (left?) are afraid that the UN represents "World Government" enslaving everyone. So I don't see bringing everyone together happening anytime soon.

Of course we could take a page out of Shock Doctrine and use the next big WHACK from collapse to convince everyone of what needs to be done but we would have to have the message and plan of action in place and we would have to elbow out the other competitors in exploiting opportunity. Not an impossiblity IMO.

Anyway thanks for the post. This IS what it comes down to.

a global powerdown would require a world government and ceding sovereignty in many area's to this world government from the current nation states. THAT'S not going to happen.

Does anyone know if the octuplet fertility clinic doctors will be prosecuted? In my opinion it seems to be a case of negligence. Here in Alberta we had a recent fuss about a 60-year-old woman who was refused by our fertility clinics, so she went to India, got implanted, came back to Alberta and had premature twins that will never be well and have cost $50,000 plus on the health care just in the first few weeks of their lives. Albertans are outraged but the Minister of Health said he can do nothing because there was no breach of law.

Hardin's lifeboat ethics appear to be a consequence of Peak Oil. Situations such as the octuplets will probably have to happen a few more times before the sheeple start to become angry enough that something substantial is done. However, I don't think this will happen anytime soon. The octuplets will be a brief controversy, then fade away.

About 30 years from now, the Alberta government will have to seriously start thinking about lifeboat economics, because we will be one of the few places left with stable oil supplies. (Very expensive, granted, but stable.) Conversely, the Rocky Mountain glaciers which supply most of our water will be mostly gone. I'm glad I'll be dead by then.

Dale--

Yours is the first post I have seen anywhere that questions the ethics of the doctors and administrators that made this atrocity possible.

People merely obey some primordial urge to reproduce -- but if they can't do it, they won't. Add "assistive reproductive" technology, driven by motive of profit and ego, and you now have catastrophe.

The woman is usually blamed -- she is even getting death threats according to the news. But she is really a distraction, a side show. And has now become a victim -- of those forces who professed to "help" her.

The gods must be crazy.

Aldus Huxley in Brave New World worked out some of the details that modern medicine might provide for a stable population.

I'm going to look at this from an American perspective, as I can't really think bigger than that.

My first idea is to amend the tax code. I propose the negative income tax. Combine an $8,000 payment with a 25% rate, with a 50% bubble rate for $1-2MM, and 80% bubble rate over $2MM. Along with this, you eliminate the child tax deduction and any welfare payments for more than 2 kids. I would also exempt the first $12K of income from payroll taxes (both on the employer and employee side).

That should take care of income disparity and tax incentives for reproduction.

There also clearly need to be laws relating to fertility treatment. A doctor should not be allowed to put 8 embryos in a woman with six kids.

This wouldn't work.  The NIT would still induce many millions to immigrate to the USA, causing population booms at both ends of the chain.

The very last thing you want to do is subsidize poverty, because you'll get explosive growth and even more resource consumption (the childless academics don't have any legacy costs).  If people cannot support themselves, the proper number of children for them to have is ZERO.  We have deadbeat-parent laws, and they should be enforced with full force on both the fathers and mothers.

FYI, Nadya Suleman only had 6 embryos implanted this last time; two of them twinned.  (It was still grossly irresponsible of the doctor to "treat" her.)

I don't buy the six embryos story. Maybe seven, but the odds of two twinning are very small.

Re: immigration. I don't understand why Obama didn't put a big, fat state of the art border fence in the "stimulus" bill. Seems like that would be the perfect olive branch to the Republicans, and would employ people as a public works project.

It would not only be great for public works, it would save billions in costs from aliens who don't make it in.  It's one measure that would pay for itself, and keep on paying.

However, the Republicans want illegals as cheap labor for their Chamber of Commerce constituency and Democrats want the illegals as clients for their public employee constituency and also as their future voting constituency, so illegal immigration will continue unless and until popular outrage overrides the influence of the various lobbies.

I don't think the majority outrage over these children is caused by any sense of a future resource bottleneck. To me, much of the outrage seems to come from nativism. If this had been a dirt poor but white(er), christian married woman there would be fundraisers to build a house and donations of diapers and food.

A year or two there was a story about the couple (white/protestant/married) that had 20-30 kids. Many wrote to my local paper asking about the future resources needed by these kids and their offspring, just as many others wrote the paper saying that every child is gift from jebus.

I think you're right that any outrage is not caused by a sense of resource bottleneck, but I think you're wrong that the outrage stems from "Nativism". The original quotations of outrage came from the woman's own mother- how does this fit your thesis?

Your hypothetical example is flawed by begging the question- namely, how would people react? If any expression of "outrage" is met with a charge of Nativism, how do you, as a critical thinker, seperate legitimate outrage from "illegitimate" outrage? To what extent do you personally investigate legitimacy when evaluating outrage?

For me, 14 underweight children, 3 with autism, and probably a high percentage of whom are going to suffer adverse direct effects, doesn't require analysis from any point of view in terms of moral judgment. It is prima facie evidence of moral abuse.

Nativism happens to be a great tool to organize societies and cultures. After all, I can't vote in Mexico. What, exactly, does "Anti-Nativism" have to offer me? Think about it.

I wrote before reading sabro: It is possible to see the top post as optimistic, concerning ppl’s disapproval of the mother with now 14 children.

Surely part of the disgusted head shaking or even anger comes from the fact that the births - all of them - were in a sense fatherless, thus artificial, unnatural, sinful.

Had they (well the octuplets at least) been achieved by a virile Dad -if I may put it that way- who had a Job viewers and readers would have been offering them Pampers and houses and ad. cos. and publishers would have been chasing them to sign them up.

I would like to the the media refuse to cover her dilemma and pay a single dime to her until she signs the papers to have all her children adopted to responsible parents....I would also like to see the money be first used to pay the babies' expenses for the outrageous hospital bill first before she ever sees any of those dimes. But that won't happen....I can still dream

Cornelius- Nice Post! Ms. Suleman has probably done more to bring population overshoot into the light of day, than all of the articles written put together, even though it has been a regular topic on TOD for years.

Suleman already has her own page on Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suleman_octuplets

News of the octuplets caused an international media frenzy. Most public reply has been angry/negative and some even included death threats, which police are investigating. There has been much public discussion about Nadya Suleman's decision to have the octuplets,including a minor protest outside the Suleman home, however Suleman currently lives elsewhere.[73] Many expressed concern that Suleman's decision for more children would burden taxpayers via public support.

Joe

bob dylan 1964

"....youve thrown the worst fear
that could ever be hurled
fear to bring children
into the world

oh for threatening my baby
unborn and unnamed
you aint worth the blood
that flows through your veins...."

a population that is more riled up over the microscopic public costs of these children while silent over the untold billions spent murdering afghans, iraqis, lebanonese and palestinians is not worth the worth the blood that flows through its veins.

a population that is more riled up over the microscopic public costs of these children while silent over the untold billions spent murdering afghans, iraqis, lebanonese and palestinians

... Has not been paying attention.

Relax. I am sure that as the economic crisis deepens, the US public will become increasingly angry about the high cost and limited effectiveness of the above incompetent attempts at genocide.

Although nuclear weapons are expensive, the US has a large inventory which has already been paid for, a sunk investment cost. Pressure will build to utilize these existing tools. There will also be demands to develop bioweapons which have the potential of producing more cost effective depopulations.

Relax. I am sure that as the economic crisis deepens, the US public will become increasingly angry about the high cost and limited effectiveness of the above incompetent attempts at genocide.

Would you be in favor of a low cost, effective and competent attempt at genocide?

Would you be in favor of a low cost, effective and competent attempt at genocide?

Add in the qualifiers massive, random, worldwide, and human specific, and I would be in favour of it.

In other words, if there was a button I could push that would release a virus that would randomly kill 90% of the current population (humans only - likely including myself, my family, and my friends), I would push it. Prince Philip and Julian Huxley have admitted similar sentiments. The world - humans and other creatures - would have a second chance if population was reset to back 680 million overnight.

Factor in peak oil and resource wars and starting with the current population, the world will be lucky to have a surviving population as large as 680 million in 2100. We are facing decades of dieoff with catabolic decline in civilization.

Unfortunately, the magic button should have been pushed over twenty years ago before CO2 went past 350 ppm. Now the planet is already doomed to a thousand years of climate stress based on the CO2 already released. The coming extinctions might even exceed the K-T event and be as severe as the end-Permian extinctions.

I would not be in favour of nuclear war, due to the damage to ecosystems. But that's just me. Your average talk radio listener is already in favour of it.

In other words, if there was a button I could push that would release a virus that would randomly kill 90% of the current population (humans only - likely including myself, my family, and my friends), I would push it.

It's not especially difficult to kill people.

What is the doomer:non-doomer ratio in the general population? 1:100? All you and the other doomers have to do is just figure out a way to kill 90 or more people, and your stated goal is achieved.

For example, a few months back, a bunch of guys managed to kill about 200 people in Mumbai. Not much of a ratio, but perhaps they were simply poorly trained, or weren't especially motivated by peak-oil or the supposed "population problem". (Or perhaps not the instance of the problem you like; maybe they would rather kill Hindu's, or Indians, or perhaps more generally anything that isn't prostrating themselves towards Makkah every day (who knows?)).

Can people like you do better?

You may remember back on 2001 September 11, about 20 guys managed to kill about 3000 people.

150:1! Now we are talking! And not just any people either, but members of the group that are sucking down all the oil and resources that is creating the "problem" you are hell-bent on solving!

Do you think you can rise to that challenge? Indeed, why are you waiting for a "button" to appear? Why all the soap opera, this weird kind of James Bond movie plot stuff? Why not just get off your ass and do your part to save the world? Surely, if the situation is as dire as you say, sufficiently bad that you would in fact righteously kill billions of people at the push of a button right now, then is your failure to act, right now, today, this very instant, is itself just as morally reprehensible as this lady who popped off another 8 copies of the evil program?

These are not rhetorical questions, sir. They are deadly, serious ones that demand answers. Are you just an armchair doomer, bluster and all, or are you a real one?

But while you compose the assuredly fascinating equivocations in response -- or perhaps simply the Mysterious Staff here at TOD will delete all trace of this discussion, lest it cast them all in a particularly poor light (which it will!) -- I must correct one misconception you are entertaining:

I would not be in favour of nuclear war, due to the damage to ecosystems.

I'm sorry, but even at the highest peak of the Cold War, there did not exist enough thermonuclear firepower to make even a trivial dent in the fate of this planet re: ecosystems. Interestingly enough, this was recently considered in another blog:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/02/highlight-point-from-longer-nuclear-war...

Methinks you are suffering under the delusion that humanity actually amounts to much in the grand scheme of things.

Kinda ironic, don't you think?

Wow.

Methinks you are suffering under the delusion that humanity actually amounts to much in the grand scheme of things.

This is where it really comes down. In the global scheme of things, and in geological time, nothing matters. Or as Keynes is frequently improperly quoted as having said, "in the end, we are all dead."

The dilemma for me, at least, is my unshakeable belief that something matters. And just what is that? European settlers probably killed off close to 90% of the original human inhabitants of North America. Didn't take them long to go into overshoot -- producing me, in addition to whatever else-- but certainly not achieving any sort of long-term "reset" of population.

I hold with Gary Snyder and Garrett Hardin. You just have to start from where you are. The goal of justice on Earth is just that -- a goal. It is unreachable, but what matters is that we try.

I see the irony in here (I hope you meant it ironic). I like to add just one thought: There is already a movie made with those ideas in mind: "12 Monkeys", which spells out possible events quite realistically. It's actually remake of "La Jetee", a french "foto-movie" by Chris Marker. Rent it and enjoy ;-) (I am sometimes flabberghasted by the kind of movies Bruce Willis used to participate in and Brad Pitt is making. Astounding quality in most of the cases).

Best regards,

J. Daehn

I'm sorry, but even at the highest peak of the Cold War, there did not exist enough thermonuclear firepower to make even a trivial dent in the fate of this planet re: ecosystems. Interestingly enough, this was recently considered in another blog:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/02/highlight-point-from-longer-nuclear-war...

mdf...does that stand for "medium-density fiberboard"?

"Do you think you can rise to that challenge?"..."Indeed, why are you waiting for a "button" to appear?"..."Why all the soap opera, this weird kind of James Bond movie plot stuff?"..."Why not just get off your ass and do your part to save the world?"

Why are you assuming he is not? See Fallacy of Many Questions

This is not constructive use of the public sphere. I am requesting your comments be struck from the discussion as they are obviously without merit, abusive, and illogical. I will also request your membership at TOD to be reviewed.

I'll second that, MDF is a consummate ignoramus.

For crying out loud!

On what basis are you going to censor mdf?

Because he said something you found disturbing or challenged your doctrinal truths?

Or because he doesn't sugarcoat it sufficiently for you?

Dissention is how people learn. And in the United States, it's how we find truth:

...that truth is great and will prevail if left to herself, that she is the proper and sufficient antagonist to error, and has nothing to fear from the conflict, unless by human interposition disarmed of her natural weapons, free argument and debate, errors ceasing to be dangerous when it is permitted freely to contradict them...

--Thomas Jefferson (1777)

Thanks, mdf, for coming to TOD and telling us what you think.

Mercurial and bandits: There is a new todban available. You don't have to see anybody's comments if you don't want to:

http://www.andante.org/tod/index.html

Thanks, I'll add Down South to it. The next sensible post he makes will be the first.

Why do I enjoy reading the people that other people don't enjoy reading.

I must be different, I'll ban myself from reading my own comments.

"Inappropriate use of a public forum". What a joke, some of you folks have no concept of the magnitude of our problem. Nothing matters anymore, at least I enjoy being in the mouth of madness.

Goivernment subsidies for 14 year old girls to have unfathered children - what do they do with it, go and get breast enlargement surgery, seriously, the whole world of Man is staring mad. Deal with it. Smile.

Why are you assuming he is not?

Because he is posting the nonsense to The Oil Drum?

But your question is a reasonable. How do I know he isn't feverishly working on the death of billions of people as I type? Maybe he is! If so, what can I say but offer my most sincere apologies to the man.

How about you? Are you working towards the same goal? Care to share your current ideas on mass death as a "constructive use of the public sphere"? MicroHydro is apparently against nuclear weapons -- the Sacred Earth may suffer a small amount of collateral damage, and that would be the pinnacle of unethical and amoral behavior, don't ya know. Maybe you have a solution?

Personally, I think nuclear weapons are a non-starter due to the issue of access or development. However, that could be my lack of experience speaking! Maybe some people with military experience can share some of their knowledge. To make the use of the public sphere more concrete, let's take an example:

http://eyeball-series.org/bangor-eyeball.htm

WSA Bangor is the #1 storage area for nuclear weapons in the United States. How many doomers do you think it would take to over-run the physical security of this stockpile, and make off with (say) 10 weapons? (Or maybe even a submarine, complete with delivery systems and all!) For the purposes of this "public enhancing" discussion, we can ignore the issue of the PAL's and other security measures inherent in the weapons themselves.

Given these parameters, I think the entire idea is a no-win. A nasty "wet" operation, prone to failure, and resulting in too much valuable doomer blood being spilled on the mission. Worse, even a submarine with a full complement of missiles wouldn't be able to come close to killing the "necessary" billions -- even if a nuclear paroxysm follows the initial strikes. (Which leads to an interesting question itself: suppose the mission was an amazing success. What targets should be set? Hitting US cities wouldn't do much, since the leadership there is (relatively speaking) more calm and composed than elsewhere. India? Does Pakistan have the nuclear firepower to respond? Maybe Israel? Man, wouldn't that lead to a nasty cluster-f*ck? Tricky questions, and surely a worthy subject for the "public sphere" if there ever was one!)

No, I think the pandemic idea is probably the most feasible. It would only take a few disgruntled biotech types, and a modest investment in material and time. Airfare to some northern region, some shovels/jackhammers to dig up some bodies from the old 1918 flu (bodies frozen in the hard soils -- do it quick before global warming thaws them out!), looking for the remnants of the virus.

Of course, as noted above, we can always be quite humorous in the implementation: deploy the agent at the cities mentioned in "12 Monkeys". Or maybe that would be "too obvious"?

Isn't it incredible there are always things to discuss "constructively"?

I am requesting your comments be struck from the discussion as they are obviously without merit, abusive, and illogical. I will also request your membership at TOD to be reviewed.

You amuse me intensely, mercurial!

You and your ilk babble on, in complete earnestness and all seriousness, about killing billions of people, and my words making fun of you are deemed to be "without merit".

HA HA HA!

But, hey, I know where I am not wanted, so, to what extent I can, I second your motion in its entirety. Ta ta!

In other words, if there was a button I could push that would release a virus that would randomly kill 90% of the current population (humans only - likely including myself, my family, and my friends), I would push it.

Reducing population with a "magic stick" would be of no help: the reduced population will just starting multiply as before.
You'll have to change the culture and traditions if you want successfully reduce the population and then stabilize it in the long term.

Reducing population with a "magic stick" would be of no help: the reduced population will just starting multiply as before.

It's true that humans will keep on screwin' like there was no tomorrow. However, if one looks at this question (whether we'd just breed back to the former green-revolution population level) aside from the thorny question of "magic sticks", the answer is not really that clear.

Humans have not achieved this level of overshoot simply by intemperate boinking. It has relied, rather, on the evolution of exosomatic fractal extractive and distributive systems which have made it possible to, with a bit of jiggery-pokkery, convert fossil fuels into human biomass.

This complex infrastructure has pulled itself up by its own bootstraps and is non-resilient to an extreme degree. Even now, the fossil fuel infrastructure is rusting away; I think Matt Simmons is claiming $100 Trillion will be needed to replace it any day now, and that's just one tip of the complex-infrastructure iceberg. And that sort of infrastructure cannot deal with hiatus, with discontinuity. So the "good news" is that if the bird flu actually does knock off 70% of the extant humans, we'll drop back in terms of maintainable complexity, and then quickly breed ourselves up to that new LOWER limit, after having given the earth a short breather. Rinse and repeat as necessary.

It's the difference between basal-cell skin cancer and melanoma. Both have a manifest destiny, an imperial agenda, and like procreatin' fer procreatin's sake. But without access to aggressive angiogenesis, the basal cell sort is less likely to destroy its world.

Which is probably as far as I should take this metaphor, but I must also note, regarding the pix uptop, that I have had cuter and safer things burned off my neck with liquid nitrogen.

This complex infrastructure has pulled itself up by its own bootstraps and is non-resilient to an extreme degree. Even now, the fossil fuel infrastructure is rusting away; I think Matt Simmons is claiming $100 Trillion will be needed to replace it any day now, and that's just one tip of the complex-infrastructure iceberg. And that sort of infrastructure cannot deal with hiatus, with discontinuity. So the "good news" is that if the bird flu actually does knock off 70% of the extant humans, we'll drop back in terms of maintainable complexity, and then quickly breed ourselves up to that new LOWER limit, after having given the earth a short breather. Rinse and repeat as necessary.

Exactly. A quick random dieoff means you lose the majority of your technocrats, engineers, oil drillers and refinery workers. The reduced population could not keep the current infrastructure going. Most of it would rust in the first decade after the dieoff. People would breed like rabbits again, but only up to the new limit, probably under one billion, which was not attained previously until circa 1800, well into the industrial age.

Ah yes, the genocidal maniac solution to all our problems. Too bad this site is becoming another peakoil.com.

"bob dylan 1964..."

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

In 1965 the world population was 3.3 billion. It is now more than double that, and still rising exponentially. The Times - They Are a-Changin'.

In the far distant past 9 pregnancies was about par for the average fecund female. I recall arguments during the early 50's about how many living children a female should have before before a post-partum sterilization was offered at Jefferson Davis, the Houston charity hospital. I thought 6 was more than sufficient. There were also differences of opinion about the evolving techniques to keep extreme low birth weight preemies alive. Time had a cover story on the 'population explosion' probably sometime during the 60's. A wealthy South American male was featured. If memory serves he had around 57 children with a series of wives. During the 80's one of our OB/Gyn guys presented a program on infertility. He was not pleased with my comment on population but was more oriented toward giving women what they wanted. That trend continues

To continue the lifeboat analogy those who are having more than one or two kids now are setting them adrift to a future without map, compass and enough food. Surely this can't happen in an enlightened society? I think it can.

John Feeney, whose web site, Growth is Madness, has initiated a major effort to get scientists and concerned citizens to speak out on global population issues. This month is GPSO month, which you can read about at http://gpso.wordpress.com/ .

I am one of more than a hundred scientists who have taken a pledge to speak out. And I will have a blog post to that effect before the month is out (Question Everything). An announcement will be posted in the Oil Drum thread.

John is looking for ways to raise this issue to the same level of awareness in the general public as global warming now is. As it is made acute by the advent of peak oil, I see these two issues, population and PO, as tandem factors in a global collapse of civilization, both needing serious public presentation. I would urge anyone who has thought this through and realizes what the implications are to write strongly and often to help raise public awareness and discourse.

I agree, this travesty in California may help trigger a national discussion.

Also, I agree with Plato. A differential of four times in earnings between the lowest and highest has a far more ethical if not moral ring to it.

George

Ah, yes, Feeney. I thought that name sounded familiar.

I composed a response to one of his, not long ago...

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/115201

From: Alan
Date: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:24 am
Subject: Re: Return of the population timebomb

--- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Philip Bogdonoff
wrote:
>
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/05/returnofthepopulatio...
>
> Return of the population timebomb
>
> John Feeney
>
> It has become taboo over recent years, but population,
> not consumption, really is the key to managing our use of
> the world's resources

Rubbish. The opposite of the truth.

What is REALLY "taboo" is talking about consumption, and
the large structural social and economic changes that would
be required to bring it under control. Like 'frinstance
abolishing capitalism as we know it.

> Ultimately, there are limits to how much we can reduce
> per-person use of land, water, and other resources.

Of course. And we have not come even remotely near them.
In fact, we have not even taken the tiniest baby-steps
toward them. So where the fuck, Feeney, do you get off
telling us that "there are limits to how much..."?

> A purposeful drop on the part of industrialised countries
> to consumption levels comparable to those of the poorest
> areas in the world

... which no one ever suggested...

> is not only wholly unrealistic but, at today's population
> size, would not end our environmental woes.

No, but then at this late date, nothing else would, either.
It is not a question of "ending our environmental woes",
any more than it is a question of waving a wand and
turning the earth into paradise, instantly.

This whole article is just a glib excuse for ignoring
the obvious.

> We have no alternative but to return our attention to
> population, the other factor in the equation.

We have a huge alternative at which Feeney does not even
want to GLANCE. Afraid of what you might see, Feeney kid?

It could get dangerous. Feeney's comfortable little world
might be... [gasp!]... called into question. We might
have to ask serious questions about capitalism. Horrors.

> Already in overshoot, we must aim for population
> stabilisation followed by a decline in human numbers
> worldwide.

That is certainly a good idea that most everyone can
support (excepting the Catholics, I suppose). It is going
to happen naturally in a short time, anyway, but anything
we can do to hasten the process is only to the good.

> Humane, empowering measures have documented records of
> success at reducing fertility rates. Most importantly, we
> have to provide easy access to family planning (pdf) options
> while educating parents through the media in the benefits
> of smaller families and family planning. We should educate
> and empower girls and women to give them options and help
> free them to make decisions concerning family size. And we
> should end government incentives for larger families. We
> must do these things internationally and vigorously, with
> a keen eye toward numbers, monitoring results and making
> adjustments accordingly.

Great ideas, one and all. Just do not expect that the
big resources problems are going to be much impacted
by them in less than several decades. Even then, the
impact is likely to be modest, since the success of the
programs in question is likely to be modest. Whereas,
consumption reduction has radical beneficial effects
that are registered **instantaneously**. Oops! Feeney
forgot to mention that.

> The stakes are too high to waste time evading the issue.

The evasion is all yours, Feeney.

Alan

I'd recommend you ask a doctor to remove your knee from your chin. Must have really hurt when your knee jerked like that.

I don't suppose it ever occurred to you that both consumption and population are problems. Or that there might be some level of population at which everyone might be able to live a very comfortable lifestyle without the aggregate impact damaging the earth.

STIRPAT
Dietz and Rosa wished to capitalize on the analytic potential of IPAT in order to address the questions posed above. They recognized, however, that human systems, while organized by the same causal processes governing natural systems, were fraught with random influences and noise. Human activity seldom follows precisely mathematical functions that characterize non-human systems. Hence, In 1994 Dietz and Rosa proposed that the I=PAT accounting equation would be more useful if recast into a stochastic form that would allow random errors in the estimation of parameters and permit systematic hypothesis testing. They proposed the following reformulation of IPAT:
I=aPbAcTde
where I is a measure of environmental impact, P is population, A is affluence and T is technology. Then a, b, c, d and e are parameters to be estimated. Estimation is accomplished by using standard statistical methods, such as regression analysis. The regression estimation procedure requires the key variables—I, P, A, and T—be converted to logarithmic form.

I am one of more than a hundred scientists who have taken a pledge to speak out.

Is MicroHydro one of yours too? Will your announcement include "suggestions"? Have you considered the implications of "scientists" making announcements like this? Doesn't the spectacle of rich people -- like you -- saying there are too many people, and not enough "life boats" seem a itty, bitty, just a smidge, a bare sliver, perhaps, maybe, possibly, hypocritical? Not "is", but merely "appear to be" -- that's all that would matter in terms of a PR campaign.

A differential of four times in earnings between the lowest and highest has a far more ethical if not moral ring to it.

Will your announcement include the mathematical demonstration for this "four", along with the unequivocal experiment that validates the theory?

When someone, under your rubric of "Question Everything", with a copy of your manifesto in hand, steps up before you and says "you first", what will your response be?

Hello MDF,

As a teenager, a long time ago: I decided to commit genetic suicide after I studied "The Population Bomb" by Ehrlich. So, I have been 'dead' for a very long time as I witness the extinction of my DNA.

My Manifesto does not make copies...

The Question is: Can others be smarter than their DNA?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

So, I have been 'dead' for a very long time as I witness the extinction of my DNA.

But would you push a button, if presented to you, given it would "randomly" kill 90% of the people on the planet? Not 'kill' in your VHEMT sense of the word, but the MicroHydro meaning? (see above)

But would you push a button, if presented to you, given it would "randomly" kill 90% of the people on the planet?

This wouldn't really solve the problem. Life would sure as hell be a lot more pleasant for the survivors for a while. But eventually humans would breed themselves right back up to the point where resource limitations triggered a die off.

"I decided to commit genetic suicide"

Hi Bob. I'm actually sorry to hear that. I think you're a bright responsible being and losing you out of the gene pool is a sad event. I had two kids and then I cut the cord. I don't regret having either one but I can clearly see that we are fast approaching Limits To Growth and I think my worst fears will be realized.

Leanan mentioned the other day on Drumbeat that Catastrophic Collapse would be far preferable to Catabolic Collapse: being a slow and gradual breakdown of complex systems. The former would preserve a lot of the ecosystems whereas the latter would denude the environments beyond recovery. I think she might be right.

A couple of years ago I took an Environmental Science class at the local university and towards the end of the semester I joked to the professor that after digesting the material from his class that I had come to the conclusion that I should kill myself. He was very quick and without a moments hesitation he replied:

Before you do that you need to convince 5 billion other people to go with you.

Cheers

Joe

Limiting "salaries" just means a shift by those more able to owning or getting more shares in the companies. The Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet, Larry Paige, Sergey Brin path. It won't have to be stock options but out and out stock. Either by owning from the start or by buying or getting stock.

Some people can create value and there will be reward for it. Even if the company were completely private like Lucas Film (George Lucas).

Allowing governments to take and control the wealth will see the exception getting the money. Like Putin in Russia. Perhaps the world's richest man. Did not create value but took it. Enemies dead.

It seems to me that, in the long term, we will need to drastically limit population. It is virtually certain that, 60 years from now, we will not be able to make fertilizer at anywhere near the rates we do today, due to shortages of fossil fuels. And without this fertilizer, the green revolution dies. In 1900 there was less than 25% of today's population, and many were starving. Now, due to fertilizers created wtih fossil fuels, we have many more people being fed, and starvation is rare except in regions where war and natural disasters exist. Seeing the end of abundant fossil fuels, must we make serious cutbacks in the birthrate? It would not be easy. Even at 1 birth per family, it could take 75 years to cut the population to 25% of today's total. So we don't have time to waste. If we need to have a much smaller population 60 years from now, and we would like to do that in a more civilized manner then relying on wars and mass starvation, we might want to consider mandatory limits on family sizes to 1 child per person. How do you enforce that? Short of mandatory sterilization of every parent, it would be difficult. That would be tough legislation to sell in America, let alone worldwide, but it may well be needed. For the sake of anybody who expects their children to be alive 60 years from now, we better earnestly look into what is needed.

Here are the simplified calculations on the birthrate. Assume the poplulation can be divided into 3 equal generations of 25 years each, that everybody dies at 75, and that everybody has their one and only child at 25. 25 years from now, 1 generation will have died, and a new generation of people under 25 will exist at half today's genration size. 50 years from now, 2 of today's generations will have died, and we will have 3 generations with populations of 1, 0.5, and 0.25 times today's generation. 75 years from now we have 3 new generations with 0.5, 0.25, and 0.125 times today's generation, totaling 0.875 times today's generation. But we would need to go from the figure of 3 times a standard generation we have today to 0.75 times a standard generation in order to have 1/4 of the people. Assuming some don't have children, a limit of 1 birth per family could accomplish that in 75 years.

But do we have 75 years to reduce the population to 25% of today's figures? Maybe we only have 60 years. Maybe less.

The thing is, nobody in power sees overpopulation as a problem. Yes, they BS about it, but there isn't any money at all allocated to solving it, which means no one wants to solve it. A guesstimate: you could sterilize at least 1 billion young women voluntarily by paying them $2000 each-maybe all costs totalling 2.5 trillion. Nobody even wants to come up with the 2.5 trillion, so the problem cannot be solved in any way.

the problem cannot be solved in any way

I share your frutration. But that doesn't mean that we can't make it clear what needs to be done. I think we should fund thorough studies of the future capacity of resources in the next 25, 50, 75 and 100 years, and of the maximum reasonable population that could live comfortably within those resources. Then we should all let politicians know that we want to plan for the future, include realistic steps to control the population size, and we will vote based on preparations for the future.

It is virtually certain that, 60 years from now, we will not be able to make fertilizer at anywhere near the rates we do today, due to shortages of fossil fuels.

Actually, it's virtually certain you don't know what you are talking about.

Let's just take ammonia (the others are similar). Currently, only a few percent of world natural gas production is used in the manufacture of ammonia and related fertilizers. There is nothing special about natural gas here either: we use it mainly because it is a very low cost source of hydrogen. The Haber process also needs a nitrogen feed, but we get that from the air itself.

What this means is that if natural gas production stopped tomorrow, or if the nutcases here who wish to put billions to the sword step in and block deliveries of the CH4, everyone else would would build a few more power plants -- hell, even wind turbines would do here! -- and begin cracking water into hydrogen and move on.

That's cheerfull. Tell me about phosphourus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, manganese, zinc, molybdnum, boron, iron, selenium, sulfur.

What would you like to know? You can peruse a table of crustal elemental abundances:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust

and for sea water

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_water

Are you worrying about running out of air too?

mdf,

I want to reiterate that I appreciate your comments.

They offer a refreshing counterbalance to the barrage of defeatist and nihilist comments that one is subjected to here on a daily basis at TOD.

What are the availability and depletion status of forms of these elements that are suitable for use as fertiliser?

Unfettered breeding is a terrorist act; we're just - by and large - too thick to realize it, except vaguely when something really messed-up like this makes the news.

Humans in a (hypothetical) sane society would have no more right to push a dozen larvae out of their loins than to park rent-a-trucks full of ANFO in front of office buildings.

China's one-child policy was inspirational precisely because it was difficult and politically incorrect. A magnificent life-saving effort in the face of overshoot. In a finite world stretched to its limit, more births mean more suffering and starvation. This is temporarly obscured by energy wealth in many countries now, but not for long.

+1

And I love your "handle".

The United States can sustain about 150 million people and now has about 300 million people. Both political parties advocate cheap illegal or legal imported labor for the sake of growth. In Texas illegal immigration is far beyond the number counted and should be stopped cold with troops on the border.

I seems to me that all the folks on TOD who scream and gnash their teeth over people having children are the same ones that go ballistic in defense of '''ohhhhh the children'''.

So what we have is a goverment that rewards those who do have more than a few children.

A female once chose a man who had valuable characteristics. Such as an ability to do hard work and thereby provide for their family.

Today the same female,or male, will pick a 'partner'(meaning they don't marry) based on ability to engage with the welfare system in a meaningful and profitable manner. Say different color/race,no skills,no jobs, perhaps some disability...etc.

I know many of these types of people. They mostly live in rundown trailers. They do not wish to work. They life fairly well on the handouts of the modern welfare state. Free Medicaid Card. Free credit card to buy groceries. WIC,,,,there are numerous programs.

The rural outback is rift with these people. I know one who was a school teacher that went on disabilty for having headaches while teaching!. She lives down the road a bit.

In the suburbs you have to go elsewhere to find them. In the country they live amongst us mostly. I see few who are not on some welfare of one kind or another.

The joke is that farmers are buried with one of their hands still outstretched and bent elbows at 90 degrees due to their always asking for government handouts. The morticians are unable to return the hand and arm to normal positions. (a joke but rings somewhat true).

Airdale-so bitch about childbearing but desire more programs for ''ohhhh the children'''.........odd.

I disagree. Most people I know who live on welfare (and I know a lot of them because of my job) don't want to be there. It is a survival mechanism, and after a while, they become inured to it -- you would have to, in order to survive.

"getting on disability" is not easy, and it becomes a full-time job. Not one that anyone wants, but all that is available to some people.

I don't have an answer, any more than anyone else does. But I do think that sneering at the less fortunate and blaming the victims is not helpful. The Rush Limbaugh approach to sociology increases meanness, not happiness.

And this is not to say that people shouldn't work! Idleness is a sin, not a joy.

I believe that this phrase"don't want to be there" is an urban legend.

Something bantied about to make a PC statement but patently untrue.

Getting on disabily may take some time but they surely obtain it.

I even had a guy dating my daughter who had her get him on as an Operating Engineer. He actually tried to turn a bulldozer over on himself just to try to get on disability. He failed and my cousin was a nurse who was aware of his goals. He was also a druggie and was later arrested for such. He finally OD on his drugs. He used my daughter to mule his drugs...and stole his own mothers pain medicine.

I think you live in a different environment than I do. Even in the cities welfare abuse is rampant. Way off the scales.

They 'don't want to be there'? Find that very very hard to swallow.

Airdale-and apparently we have a lot of proof on the person who is the main topic of this ESSAY...the woman who has 14 babies via egg implants.She did it just for FUN?????

The Oil Drum isn't about "belief". It is supposedly a site devoted to verifiable "fact."

I know all those stories -- I deal with them every day -- though fortunately, my children have been luckier than yours. I am sorry for you and your daughter -- and I'm quite sure you didn't intend that, or even believe it was possible when she was a tiny girl putting on her first dress.

What is not "belief" or "urban myth" is that people want to survive -- that is basic instinct.

What seems to be "true", so far as sociology is enough of a "science" to prove it -- is that most people would prefer to live with the approval of their peers, but may be actually be forced to take advantage of them by authority or circumstance. Charles Dickens is full of this sort of dilemma.

I agree that there are people with severe personality disorders -- and they aren't all on Welfare; the most destructive of them are in Government and on Wall Street -- who actually get off on hurting people.

If our culture is to survive, we need to find out how those people are produced, and what we can do to neutralize their corrosive effect. Doesn't look like much effort is put there, though, so I imagine the future is one of vicious, competing tribes.

Much like the present.

Neverlng stated "The Oil Drum isn't about "belief". It is supposedly a site devoted to verifiable "fact."

Are you now making up the rules here?

Verifable facts? Suppose everytime YOU created a post and I asked that each and every statement you made be verifable?

There is no such thing here as OPINION?

Hey dude,,notice the lack of 'footnotes'.

Glad your not a politician. Oh well perhaps you are!

Listen fella, go bitch to your wifey if you need to shed some angst.

Most EVERYTHING I post is my OPINION and based oft times on what I OBSERVE......get a frigging clue man.

I also state what I post , ALWAYS as my opinion...IMO...get it?

Or 'I believe'...so screw your 'verifable facts'.

Airdale

I got it!

Couldn't be clearer.

Opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one, and nobody can do without it.

Sorry for coming off half-cocked. I am still mentally in powered down mode due to conditions here and still not back with the normalcy of everyday normal life.

However I editted my comment to include this comment by Nate Hagens but for some reason the edit didn't work.

Nate:"One of the purposes of Campfire section of theoildrum is float big ideas that may have neither data nor answers "

This was part of his text in a comment he made further down below this one.

IOWs Campfire is less controlled or at least their are more 'viewpoints' since mostly its 'what could or may happen'. So open to lots of conjecture.

Airdale-yet I still add that I always make sure that I use lots of IMOs and the words like 'belief,I think" etc. At my age I have seen all I think I can see of this world. Or all that I need to see. So I am not in a mode of absorbing knowledge that doesn't correlate to my life and knowledge base. I take a lot of what is stated as factual here on TOD as perhaps just conjecture by academia or other types and subject to googling and therefore IMO still unproven and rather loose.

Over the years what I have heard of as Hard Facts many times are overturned later. Fat is bad for you. Fat is good for you. Alcohol is bad for you. Alcohol is good for you. Peanut Butter is good. Peanut Butter right now might render you very ill. etc...etc....

Chuckle Airdale, glad your power is back BTW, I agree, when you get on to geezer-hood like some of us all your are pretty much left with is your opinion, your observations, conventional wisdom does not always cut it. IMO it's been known to fail time and again, when you get get old enough and have seen it enough times, you gain some perspective.

Youngsters will be youngsters though, all stirred up and sure they know the answers. I got a real good chuckle from the thread about amending the tax code to control population. Yeah like that's going to happen, and it even, once again, hands over control of your life to the government, do people who post here really think that's a good idea? The government will take care of it ??

Yup when you loose your job, and the systems start to fail please stand out by your mailbox at 1 o'clock each day to collect the meal the government will deliver to you.

There's a wonderful scene from the TV show Jericho. I'm sure many of you know it. Post very bad times, and civilization on a downward spiral. A large firefight had happened and the good guys were fine, bodies all around of bad guys. Good guys checked and yup they were in serious trouble, the attackers had the resources to wash underwear. All the dead had clean underwear. It meant a well organized group, with resources. Future trouble. Hell it was telltale that they had underwear to wear at all.

I'd love to see many of the posters here spend a year in a real 3'd world country, and I have to use that language because that's what you understand, cultures all over the world were it takes thousands of people to have the same impact as one american. Been there, and the person with the magic box that makes light at night has many friends.

Airdale, even with my years, I find the thing I have to work the hardest at, is trying to be kind. There is so much to be incensed about. Wood splitting works real well on rage. Beat the living shit out of that wood. I don't go out much, and I have to say I really don't like many of the people I see when I do. Fat, complacent, sure they know all the answers, there are an awful lot that do not get it.

Somedays I'm not sure why I think it is important to be kind. Just my opinion and thoughts.. not available on google.

Peace to you Airdale

Don in Maine

Hi Don,

Opinion,beliefs,knowledge,wisdom and understanding.

Where is 'facts' then? No where. Its derived from all of the above in the first sentence.

I find facts to be statements that can be destroyed easily and oft times are. They are tough to pin down.One man's fact, another man's fancy.

And like you say Don,,when your young then you decide 'hey here is a fact' and everyone who disputes it is suddenly 'stupid and knows nothing'. With age this will change unless your head is just a place to store your hat.

Reasonable people IMO will present all the above in my first sentence. Strive to use Understanding to aquire Knowledge and thereby gain Wisdom.

They will therefore listen to the views and opinions of others in order to sift and gain insight.

Now I thought this was the way things worked. But no they don't IMO.

The government, big businesses, the MSM and many other interests TELL US what is REALITY. The spew it enough and suddenly sheeple take it as fact. Its not...it dribble and spew and sputum. Manufactured for the masses to control them. Observation here and in the world show just how easily they are controlled and made to believe.

I walk a different path. I get sick of seeing those phony shiny stupid faces in the MSM and advertising world. Its made up bullshit.
Recently I have been examining Medical Plans for my wife since I am removing her from my ex-employers plans for she has reached 65 and Medicare eligible. IN those brochures and online EVERYONE has this huge grin and most are laughing and doing ignorant things. This is the spiel many must swallow...life is SOOOOO much FUN!!!!
Life can be a bitch. FACT? Nope...its reality to many though. Busted families,sex affairs with others(or animals),divorce is rampant, children learn nothing, taxes eat your lunch and STDs may rot your reproductive organs off,,etc.....

So I have to sit back and use my life's experiences to judge what I will and will not be certain of...and I do not use the term "FACTS" any more.

My way,my life, thank you very much!

Peace Don,keep on keeping on,
Airdale

Today the same female,or male, will pick a 'partner'(meaning they don't marry) based on ability to engage with the welfare system in a meaningful and profitable manner. Say different color/race,no skills,no jobs, perhaps some disability...etc.

I think it's more precise to say that the female chooses a mate based on his "silverback" qualities. That is to say, one who wields influence and power in the tribe — a rich dude, a politician, a business owner. The welfare recipient is a variation of that theme. Sadly, this means selection favors those who influence other people over individuals who actually do stuff. Richard Feynman wrote about this trend in his analysis of the Challenger disaster.

The rural outback population of welfare recipients will inevitably collapse with the end of cheap fuel to drive into town and visit the welfare office. In fact said welfare office may be closed for some of the same reasons, stimulus package or not.

...all the folks on TOD who scream and gnash their teeth over people having children are the same ones that go ballistic in defense of '''ohhhhh the children'''

false: I was coming out of box grocery store last week confronted by wholesome woman asking if I would like to make a donation to Save the Children. I replied without malice: "no I wouldn't".

I felt no shame or self-recrimination. However if she would have asked me for a dollar because she was starving I would have given it to her.

Joe

I was in a Dollar General store a month or so ago and was ringing out at the cashier.

The clerk asked if I wanted to make a donation to St. Judes.

I said ,"No I don't want to and besides I am not catholic."

Two women next to me started off by telling me that I should do this and that and so and so about St. Judes.

I said "Shut your mouth. I didn't ask for your opinion and if your interested IMO they should be collecting to have a program to test their priests psychological propensities for being pedophiles. This would do us all a big favor."

I could have said more. I didn't.

I was being nice.

Airdale

I would also in parting add this comment posted by Nate Hagens a bit below...
"One of the purposes of Campfire section of theoildrum is float big ideas that may have neither data nor answers "

Notice the words 'neither data nor answers'...meaning what? Opinion,,belief,etc.

I'm bothered by both this post and the enthusiastic response to it. As a long-time conservationist-turned-anthropologist, I am aware of the resource use issue from an ecological standpoint, and I am also a bit of a "doomer" when it comes to peak oil. There are lots of arguments to be made for reducing resource use, maybe even population, from an ecological economics perspective.

That said, there are two things I would point out: First, the original post says "...And extrapolating – if they follow their mothers cultural/genetic fecundity and each have 14 children of their own who in turn each also have 14 children...," but there is nothing supporting the contention that her having 14 children is either cultural or genetic. Among families with children in California the average number of children is 1.92--below the replacement rate, according to the 1990 census (http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam.html). The fact that there has been so much discussion of this single family also points to the fact that a 14-child single-parent family is not a cultural norm. The genetic argument is out, since she only had octuplets as the result of fertility drugs. This is a case of individual psychology, and I have seen no indication of a pattern in larger culture.

Which brings me to my second point: The whole post seems to be set up as a straw man for the purpose of rehashing Garret Hardin's views. Hardin's 1968 "Tragedy of the Commons" relies on the assumption--long since disproven--that humans around the world act for their own selfish gain, and that groups of humans will not develop their own institutions for governance of common resources without being forced to do so. Both this and his 1974 "Lifeboat Ethics" take into account limited resources, with the response that 'those people over there' need to use less, have fewer children, etc. so that we can continue to use our automatic dishwashers and drive our gas guzzling monster trucks. The argument is fundamentally racist, or at the very least nationalist. The opposite argument could just as easily be made: the US and Europe should face mandatory restrictions on resource use, so that people can have more children. Either way, we are left with the unresolved question of who gets to make those decisions for other people--a particularly troubling question when reproductive rights are concerned.

If Cornelius wants to make the argument that global overpopulation is a problem vis-a-vis resource use, using an aberrant example is not a good way to go about it. And if anyone wants to cite Hardin to back up their arguments, they need to be prepared to deal with Hardin's unpacked baggage.

I allowed this to be posted so let me respond, (though I'm traveling so it will be brief).
Many of your points are well made. One of the purposes of Campfire section of theoildrum is float big ideas that may have neither data nor answers - almost by definition these will be sensitive. It is at the margin that debate and discussion of issues will be fruitful, or not at all.

The author addressed your uncertainty about who gets to make these decisions in his conclusion:

Where society finds equilibrium on these 'lifeboat levels' is a question worthy of discussion. (And who will be discussing these questions is also a question worthy of discussion).

In my opinion, these resource/equity questions parse down to ==> with 6.8 billion inhabitants growing towards 8-9 we will either need to lower the average energy footprint for ALL or have a certain subset use a much larger % than others (which is the current model). To leave these questions unspoken and swept under the rug increases the odds of the default path. I for one don't know an answer which is one of the primary reasons I continue to devote time here.

As to Tragedy of the Commons being 'long since disproven', I will let others respond to that assertion.

Thanks for putting it up -- posts such as this expose raw nerves, and I guess that is good.

The thing that is "disproved" in Garrett Hardin is his description of "the Commons"-- it never existed as in his story. But he wasn't writing history-- he was telling a parable. On the other hand, in the end, I think his only solution was to create some form of central authority-- he was fundamentally a Hobbsian.

On the other hand, John Zerzan has made a good case for anarchy and the historical and archaeological record of 30,000 years of native cultures in North and South America and Australia suggest that either anarchy or small power centers can be stable over long periods.

That is what we should be discussing, I believe. How do you create organization without creating catastrophe?

Alright, then, Mr. Hagens, if "questions unspoken and swept under the rug does no one any good", and the purpose of these forums is to "float big ideas that may have neither data nor answers", then you can try these on for size:

Is the purpose of discussing the outright killing -- honesty, Mr. Hagens, honesty! -- of billions of people simply a disguise for Western classism, racism, or whatever?

I mean, we all know who is going to be starved, poisoned, nuked, or generally put to death. Don't we? MicroHydro says the selection method should be "random", but we all know what will happen if his version of the Final Solution is implemented, right? The weaker form of this argument -- forced sterilization, "one child per family, Or Else" -- aren't much different.

Read the responses you are gathering here. Are any of these neo-malthusians, cackling with glee at the prospect for a 90% die-off .. do you seriously think they going to be happy if the world is populated by a bunch of little brown people who live in poor countries? Do you honestly accept their claims these "kill them all and let Gaia sort them out" people are in this "to protect the environment"? Do you think they will let rich white women be held down while they have their tubes tied ... without even a fight?

Basically, Mr. Hagens, are you and the other TOD Staffers as ignorant and naive as you are pretending to be? Or (significant pause) what?

But hey, maybe that's too personal a question, and you would prefer to sweep it under the rug. Fine, fine, don't answer it.

Try this one:

Let's say the entire fantasy being offered by the "life boaters" is the truth. The Blessed Earth is overloaded with people. Too little energy! Too few resources! Malthus was right, just a few centuries premature! Julian Simon was a crazy man, and Lomberg already has his spot in Hell ready. Let's accept it all, swallow the entire load as a given: no hope whatsoever, regardless of our actions.

Question: what is the point of deliberating on who gets to live or die, birth rate regulations, and other issues given this brick wall of inevitability? If the population today is X, and the capacity for the Earth is Y, and if, as given, X > Y, then why does anyone need raise a question? Ethics? Morality? Life boats or anchors? Who cares, since a completely objective, amoral agent over which we have no control whatsoever -- physical reality -- will do whatever it needs to do, regardless of whatever mind-games the Malthusians wish to play to achieve their desired outcome. ("Oh, white people are more valuable than those dark people in Africa!" "No! The selection function should be weighted by energy consumed!" "But that would depopulate North America first, and we can't have that!" "I know! Let's have a vote, but we send no ballots to the poor countries! Har har!")

we will either need to lower the average energy footprint for ALL or have a certain subset use a much larger % than others

That there are other options has apparently been "swept under the rug", I suppose...

Are any of these neo-malthusians, cackling with glee at the prospect for a 90% die-off

I think its pretty safe to say that no one is happy about the situation.

I'm happy about the situation, ecstatic actually.

All this hand waving about population control is pointless. The earth will set the ultimate limits on population growth. But before that happens, wars will re-establish the time honored method called "survival of the fittest". Intellectualism amounts to nothing at the point of a gun.

Some of us smart folks are reasonably handy with guns too.

And if anyone wants to cite Hardin to back up their arguments, they need to be prepared to deal with Hardin's unpacked baggage.

d0g3n - It's amazing that every doomsayer from Hardin to Club of Rome, Ehrlich and Malthus is refuted because the theory failed to materialize in a specified time-frame. With state of the art equipment they can't predict the weather accurately 3 days out but I wouldn't recommend they cease meteorology reports.

I was reading an article a while back about how life insurance came about. Seems that Deacons widows needed looking after. So they charted the average lives of all deacons and how many left widows and how long those widows might be expected to be looked after. Turns out these actuary tables were strikingly accurate. But when you consider the simplicity of making life insurance predictions as compared to extrapolating resource limits based on exponential population growth multiplied by rising consumption divided by resources...those actuary tables become impossibly complex.

At the same time that doesn't make the theories invalid. They just need revising. Your common sense should tell you that with exponential population growth eventually we'll hit Limits to Growth. You might want to supplement your Anthropology with a course in Environmental Science.

"Take a Walk on the Wild Side" Lou Reed

Joe

I never said that I doubt that exponential growth would be a problem. Hardin's baggage isn't his math--it is the argument that rich nations/groups somehow have the right to maintain their wealth at the expense of other's reproductive rights, which is ethically problematic. I do realize that at some point both become necessary. I was an ecologist by training before becoming an anthropologist, so I get the idea of growth, but as alan2102 wrote higher up in the comment list:

5.Population is a serious problem, about which not much can be done at
this late date. Most of the big action was decades ago. Demographics move
very slowly. For the next few decades, the die is pretty much cast, with
modest possible exceptions (e.g. aggressive development of birth control
and family planning initiatives in Africa).

6. Consumption is a more-serious problem, about which a great deal can
be done even at this late date.

Add to that the fact that growth in most countries has slowed. The world population growth rate peaked in the 1960s.

I have written for some time that I think our consumptive drives are more critical than population levels. I think the question raised in the post is how are we going to make the social value judgements on reducing population or increasing equality across and within nations? As usual, people below mean wealth want to be above it and people above it are wont to go back to the pack.

Interesting.

Let's put it this way. It wouldn't bother me at all if 90% of the population of the planet (this means YOU) died in a nuclear fireball, pandemic, whatever... As long as my family and friends were fine. We could then expand into the niche vacated by you.

So while I think it is a great thing that you all restrict your breeding. Don't expect me to do the same.

That is the nature of life, and it means that if there are going to be severely restricted resources in the future. There will be wars with the result that the winners can expand wiping out the losers.

gratuitous childbirth.

I think Mother Nature will take care of our population and consumption problems for us - but it won't be pretty, it won't be controllable, and it won't be fair.

Having been employed by municipal, county and state governments, and having seen the trainwreck that is the federal government, I shudder to think of world government. Although, ultimately, if we survive, that will have to take place. It will be the only way to save civilization and equitably share, preserve and sustain our environment.

I agree.

One of the problems is that we have interfered with mother nature with the public welfare system that rewards having babies.

Oh noes, peak octuplets! What ever will we do?

Clone.

I didn’t read or don’t remember the 70’s authors on population. Their alarm bells, though, were about the future, no? And not their own present, much like global warming today. Once population became an issue too evident to ignore it was less discussed, and even became partly taboo, or at least very controversial, specially in the US, the most religious Western country, if only on the issue of the sacredness of unregulated procreation, itself, I suppose, a muted reaction to immigration and multiculturalism.

Over-population is both the cause of our present predicament, and the result of progress - notably the Green revolution. A paradigm built on growth either simply stimulates population balooning - children are born, eat, get basic medical services, and survive. Or actually encourages or requires (?) it because more and more cheap labor is needed - to expand, new ‘entrants’ are needed. They may till the ground, or work in factories to make Barbie dolls, or even train to nurse (and get exported to the rich) or study robotics, whatever, the new hands are needed.

In fact one might argue that the looming energy crisis, well understood by many above us, has, since 15 years at least, re-valorised cheap labor.

Therefore immigration, globalization, de-localization, and so on. And discourse about trickle down and lift all boats. Now to be replaced (in part) with new protectionism.

Great News! This morning's paper has an above-the-fold article about how the Obama administration is floating its idea to hold the 2010 budget increase to DOE's weapons activities to a mere 1.5%! They also have made it clear that any work on replacement/new weapons will cease...ANY work, both 'explicit and implicit'. Also, plans to increase weapons manufacturing capacity will be shelved. This does NOT mean the US of A forfeits its 'most precious' weapons, but does mean the end of the Republican-inspired drive to dump boat-loads of our money down that doomsday rat hole.

NOW is the time for each of you to, as I just did, write each of your Congresspeople and President Obama and enthusiastically endorse this course of action.

Go to the this LANL (Los Alamos National Laboratory) blog and read the story from the Albuquerque Journal, then read the comments from the PhDs of doom who are crapping their pants because they may lose their little Dr.Strangelovian jobs and have to do something that actually serves humanity!

http://lanl-the-rest-of-the-story.blogspot.com/2009/02/nuclear-work-in-d...

I got news for you: America's National Labs are chock-a-block full of self-righteous scientists who rationalize that their work on these abominations keep the red hoards at bay! These labs do very little of their total Level-of-Effort (LOE) pursuing renewable energy research, or pursuing energy efficiency....most of their work is pursuing Doomsday!

If these labs survive at all, the government needs to turn their activities away from the oh-so-quaint but still very real 'doomsday' work and put all these 50-pond heads to work solving the real pressing problems facing America and the World!

Write your Congress-people, the President, and your newspapers Now! Stop paying Billions of dollars for mis-guided scientists to craft slick PowerPoint engineering slides advocating making the next generation of weapons. That time is over.

Also check out this Lawrence Livermore Lab unofficial blog:

http://llnlthetruestory.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2009-01-01T00%3A...

Scroll down and read the story about how the administration wants to put Department of Energy (DOE) lab control under Department of Defense (DoD). This is a HORRIBLE idea. Legislation existing since 1954 has codified that weapons are made and 'owned' by DOE, and DoD gets to 'borrow' them to have ready to use in warfare. This is the essence of having CIVILIAN control over these most destructive devices. Putting the labs under the DoD tent is akin to letting the fox run the hen house. Did I mention that the labs, while being 'government', are really managed by private corporations??? Lockheed-Martin manages (runs) Sandia National Laboratory. Does anyone see anything that stinks here? How many of you realize that your money is being wasted on this 'research' and manufacturing the details of which are shielded from your eyes (no accountability to the people whatsoever) by secrecy laws?

Again, get off your duffs, do some research, and write your congresspeople! All this fine talk about TARP and Stimulus packages ruining our economy and you people don't know or care that DoD and DoE (and now DHS-Dept of Homeland Security) and NSA/CIA/EIEIO have been bleeding you dry for sixty-plus years!

So you want a way to quickly kill off 90% of all humans now living. I have long thought that the worst thing that terrorists could do to America would be to set fire to our vast fields of corn and wheat on some hot August night. It wouldn't be all that difficult. A handful of small planes and a few cases of road flares each and fire lines hundreds of miles long would be roaring by day break. It would make the recent firestorms of Oz look like a marshmallow roast. Within months the world would be in the worst famine imaginable which would not end soon because the hungry would eat the seeds also.

Or use birth control..

..or not:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_broken_britain;_ylt=Arbk_u6Yx1qXUB.A7TfmO6...
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Baby-faced dad, 13, raises "broken Britain" fears

..Cut to the reality of 2009: the highest teen pregnancy rate in western Europe, a binge drinking culture that leaves drunk teens splayed out in the streets and rising knife crime that has turned some pub fights into deadly affairs.

..In the latest symbol of what some are calling "broken Britain," 13-year-old Alfie and his 15-year-old girlfriend Chantelle became parents last week. The news sparked a flurry of handwringing from the media — and even ordinary folk admitted it didn't help that Alfie barely looked 10, let alone 13, as he cradled his newborn daughter.

Alfie's father, who reportedly has nine or 10 children of his own, gamely promised to have a "birds and the bees" chat with his son to prevent him from producing a second child before he grows facial hair.

Somehow that was not reassuring.

..Alfie's daughter Maisie was reportedly conceived when he was 12. Chantelle's parents let the lad spend the night with their daughter, 14 at the time, at their public housing unit near Eastbourne, 70 miles southeast of London.

..Alfie told The Sun he plans to look after his newborn daughter. But in a heartbreaking interview, the boy admitted he didn't know what the word "financially" meant and acknowledged he doesn't even get an allowance.
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Idiocracy verified,IMO.

http://www.theinsider.com/news/1683811_More_Boys_Claim_To_Be_Baby_s_Father
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More Boys Claim To Be Baby’s Father
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IMO,it is Not a good sign when other youngsters are clamoring to publicly proclaim themselves as idiots.

Hardin has written externsively concerning control of population. Biologically many living organisms have reached balanced populations presumably through evolution. A good example is a multicelluar organism, such as our own body. There are lots of different types of cells in our body that keep their numbers within the limit that is needed to maintain the proper functioning of the body. That system does break down though, and the result is then referred to as the person suffering from too many cells of one type, a tumor, or if it is growing, cancer. We as a species have something going for us, that these original cells didn't and had to work out by trial and error. That is a brain that can figure out what needs to be done, and hopefully in way that expands the degree of cooperation such that we can exist in our environment without destroying it or ourselves. Environmental Science courses have been covering these ideas at least since "Silent Spring". Energybulletin.net is a composium of articles where these are discussed and groups are forming to deal with these difficulties.

I wonder if one of those 8 little critters will crack nuclear fusion. We would have to eat our words.

They're extremely premature. I'd be amazed if they'll all able to read and write.

It's worse than that.  Even if one of the 8 was an Einstein, the disabilities of the other 7 and their 3 siblings who already collect disability payments would consume more brainpower keeping them alive and out of trouble than the one Einstein would provide.

This entry's argument is focused on wrong fundamentals unless he is discussing population controls. The population of the United States is 300000000+ and 14 children arent going to make us any less enrgy dependant. The argument should instead be focused on why 2,744 Americans consume the same amount of Oil Italy does.

I would hope the argument is more broad than that. So what if this was in Italy?

In either case, this is another inequality. Much like CEO's making (taking) more than there fair share from the system, so is this woman. Hence the outrage (she was apparently receiving death threats).

At least -in theory- the CEO is doing something productive, while this woman clearly isn't (unless her children are used to advance the goals of the state via cheap slave labor or some equivalent).

another way to control population would be a serious attempt at promoting vasectomy for young men, for example in developed countries a wealthy foundation could sponsor college education for those youths who have the procedure. in poor countries a simple cash payment may be sufficient inducement.
if at a later date the person wants to have a child then they should by then have earned the means to pay an endowment into the state for their child. i am not certain but i imagine medical science is capable of extracting sufficient sperm for impregnation of the partner without reversing the vasectomy.

I once made the facetious comment that a regular lottery could be set up for who would become soylent green thereby solving population and food problem in one stroke. Reading Orlov's latest it seems that mad proposals somehow become more acceptable over time until they seem normal.

Obviously if people were willing to go so far as a soylent green lottery they wold accept sterilizaiton and a reduction of consumption before the situation got out of hand. I think war would be preferable to most as it satisfies more the feeling of actively doing the most possible- create an enemy like muslims or whatever and go kill them- side effect is population reduction, actual biological priority in the first place. Otherwise suicide would be very widespread among intellectuals who understand the problem of resurce depletion and overpopulation and act in the most logical way. The only mass action that will ever be fulfilled is that which a majority will approve or be able to rationalize to themselves in worst scenario. It is more acceptable for most people to die fighting than to pick straws to see who dies so war is inevitable. The chinese one child policy has saved a lot of growth however so benevolent dictators give us some hope. However they have probably more than negated the positive effects of that policy by their increase of resource use since the simultaneous implementation of Deng Xiao Ping's capitalism policies. So the Chinese did one right and one wrong balancing out. USA did both things wrong and 3rd world countries do the population thing wrong.

Shoot, there are so many issues associated with this incident, and the "lifeboat" analogy that the discussion becomes much "crosstalk."

There does seem to be some reason to hope that "freak" incidents like mega-multiple births could increase social awareness by a factor, and in an infinite number of ways that are counter intuitive.

For instance, one of those births could result in a child so repulsed by the nature of his/her inception that they eventually write the most compelling piece of literature ever produced condemning society's lack of insight into the need for population control and contraception.

We can always hope.

Indeed. My other thought is this.

What if fertility cults are established? Well, in some ways you already see this: Orthodox Jews in Israel (that really conservative sect) are projected to be 25% of the population in some relatively near term (15 years) - I can't find the article. And this brings up a lot of issues for them, because they don't serve in the military (which is otherwise compulsory in Israel). This poses problems. Imagine what issues would spring up if the Amish ever became a large minority in Pennsylvania.

And immigration brings up much the same issues - it changes more than demographics. It can change public policy, and is therefore a serious issue. But it's always a somewhat unique issue. In the above case you have people that are probably for Israel's expansion, but aren't serving in the military. That would make me irritated.

I think this also relates - locally. Whether a town has kids, or people move in, the local affect is the same in the short term (in the long term one group will have more children than the other).

The immigration dynamic is an interesting one for America. I heard a woman on NPR saying it was a matter of civil rights to let people immigrate to this country. But what is the big picture?

The problem I have with immigration is the source country doesn't have to change. It can continue it's grow rates locally, because the surplus will go somewhere else. It's BAU for them.

In the case of Somalia it caused a lot of friction in some places. In MA, the schools were required to do language classes. This of course costs money. And people who never had running water will certainly be willing to work for less. It's much like internal globalism - someone without much education (high school only) will have a difficult time keeping their parents way of life when confronted with such issues.

And now you have something similar to this woman's situation - angry people sending death threats because they feel they are getting grifted.

I'm a little mystified as to how this post got on to TOD. Its total content seems to consist of "Crazy Octuplet Lady bad. People think her bad. This is good. Here, read Hardin." Very low content level for the Oil Drum.

But while it isn't the worst post I've seen here, it definitely has led to the lowest level of discussion ever (at least I hope). Glad to see the pro-mass murder doomer contingent is right here, celebrating itself.

As for this inspiring a national discussion - if this is the kind of discussion population limitation activists have, I can promise you now that any national conversation attempted will fail miserably as people recoil in horror at the self-parody of an actual discussion that appears here. I really hope the Obama team was busy elsewhere this weekend.

Suleman is the ideal scapegoat, of course. She's a complete nut job, doing something totally irresponsible that no one, on any side of any political discussion thinks is a good idea. She's not white. She's poor. She's a single Mom. She's an idiot. Yes, she'd be the ideal figure to start a national conversation about population - she feeds every stereotype anyone could possibly want to invoke. I'm sure that this would evolve into a useful and productive conversation, just as it has here (sarcanol on, just in case you can't tell).

And to help with the false dichotomies, we have Hardin, master of them. Thus we are given parameters completely unlike most realities -
Die horribly by kindness vs. throw people overboard; unregulated commons in the absence of democracy not managed by anyone but destroyed by everyone vs. privatization; give back all the land or don't give the Indians anything - as though those were the only choices.

Well, nonsense. We don't live in a lifeboat where we know precisely how many people we can feed in the short term. Right now we produce enough food to feed the projected population growth and then decline - yes, we are doing it by depleting natural capital, yes, we are in overshoot, but this is a chronic situation, only just becoming acute - we don't know if we have time for a managed decline or not, but we're ready to start throwing people overboard (or at least some people are).

Historically speaking, real commons, as opposed to Hardin's sort, were managed by the people who used them - that is, people objected to unrestrained degradation, and enforced it - unrestricted use of the commons arises when things are divided into private and public, the public getting the scraps and the rich getting the commons and the old methods of management are undermined, say in the enclosure of public lands. As Vandana Shiva reminds us, someone alwasys gets rich on this "rescuing" of the commons.

I feel very strongly that the population conversation has to happen - and anyone who has read my blog or my books knows that I feel it so strongly that I'm willing to take the fire I get for having too many children. But I also think that population activists often bring the silence on themselves - and this is a good example of the kind of material that leads to that silence. For example, how would we expect someone to look at a list of "resource use problems" that lists crazy lady's unlikely to ever be duplicated children as an example, then goes on to suggest that we shouldn't try to keep them alive, and only then gets to whether the resource use of the rich matters.

Oy.

Sharon

I was asked to write a series of short essays on resource depletion relating to the fields of ecology and biology, closing each with open ended discussion questions. The content above certainly did not advocate throwing anyone overboard.

But if you acknowledge we are deep into overshoot, then you admit we already have both lifeboats and swimmers. The fact we don't know how many are swimming and how many are on board and the other unknowns was something I'd hope to be more discussed.

I am new to this venue - my next contribution will be less oblique.

Whilst you article may have attracted genocidal rants, population control will hit raw nerves mostly. The subject needs to be raised, often, until the knee-jerk reactions get tired. Sometimes oblique is usefull.

No, you didn't advocate throwing anyone overboard - but I don't think that the quality of the response is an accident - that is, how we present what we write engenders certain kinds of responses. Asking people to develop their outrage against obvious targets works up precisely the kind of outrage you'd expect.

I don't deny we're in overshoot - but I would question your premise that there are both lifeboats and swimmers, simply because the only way you can address the concept of overshoot is not through Hardin's lens - implying that that's so is more false reasoning. We've been in overshoot for a long time - would you then say that we've had lifeboats and swimmers since 1920? Since...when? Is the evidence for that merely that we have hungry people? But we had them even before we entered overshoot? The swimmers imply we have people we know cannot be allowed to survive - who would they be?

The problem with viewing the world through Hardin is that everything looks like it falls into Hardin-esque categories. I'm reminded of Maria Mies's discussion of appearing on a Commons panel only to discover it was a Hardin panel:

"We were surprised when we learned through the introduction by Michael Goldman, reviewing an summarizing the literature on the topic, that the esssy by Garret Hardin entitled "The Tragedy of the Commons" was considered a key contribution in the Anglo-Saxon word and that the whole debate was basically structured according to whether a writer's position was pro or contra Hardin. We were surprised because in thedebates on commons in which we have been involved, this author had no importance.....Hardin, in fact, contributed a good deal to the invention of the 'global commons' by deconstructing (here the term deconstruction applies very well) the real commons of local people in their communities."

Hardin's work is neither science nor a substantiated theory of culture that applies outside a fairly narrow world lens. On the other hand, it has been enthusiastically embraced by people who wish to enact further degradation, and globalization - precisely the people rushing most directly towards collapse. If you want to raise interesting questions, you might raise the question of Hardin himself, and his merits, rather than offering him as a given, and his assumptions as unquestionable.

Sharon

This article definitely reminds me of the writings of Garrett Hardin.

I have long noticed that however intelligent or otherwise rational, most people fail to acknowledge that population size is the common denominator for all ecological and human economic problems. If we could solve the population growth problem, it would positively affect myriad problems such as anthropogenic climate forcing, energy constraints, pollution problems, and so on... Unfortunately, if there were a million Nadya Suleman's, I still don't believe that a majority would recognize this fact. That's my opinion anyway... I would love to find that this view is wrong, to witness a major shift in the way people think about reproductive freedom or 'rights', taking into consideration long term outcomes and the implications of population size in relation to carrying capacity, energy and resource footprints, and quality of life issues. For me, the prudent thing to do appears to be assuming an overshoot scenario and adjusting our behaviors accordingly. Perhaps in this regard, more like minded people should form communities that put into practice relatively sustainable life styles?

I am of the opinion that humans may not be able to tolerate lifeboat discussions except in lifeboat conditions - i.e. the odds of biological controls being self-applied as a mandate from the masses are quite low.