<DrumBeat: February 23, 2009 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: February 24, 2009>

137 comments on Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004

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Nate Hagens on February 23, 2009 - 10:51am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Thanks Ace for your continued diligence on this front.

...does not support the conclusion that non OPEC-12 production peaked in 2004. We have not seen the future data points yet.

Using this logic, we can never know when oil, the stock markets, human progress, human happiness, human population, gold, corn, elephants, whales, CDOs and skyscrapers, have peaked, because there will ALWAYS be future datapoints....

"Peak Oil in the past" will likely never be acknowledged by those who don't already understand the wide boundary reasons for it (higher costs, lower aggregate real capital/wealth, aging infrastructure, resource vs. flow rate, etc.) Economists will always have an excuse - if it weren't for the credit crisis...if it weren't for such and such war, if it weren't for the depression, we'd be over 100 mbpd....etc.

Still, asking EIA, CERA/IHS and other institutions to at least provide realistic error bands not based on magical thinking, given how wrong they've been, can be helpful. Because it will inject some energy urgency into the current financial discussions dominating the political scene. What good are jobs and a recovery if we don't have the energy infrastructure to maintain them?

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GreyZone on February 23, 2009 - 1:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Peak Oil in the past" will likely never be acknowledged by those who don't already understand the wide boundary reasons for it (higher costs, lower aggregate real capital/wealth, aging infrastructure, resource vs. flow rate, etc.) Economists will always have an excuse - if it weren't for the credit crisis...if it weren't for such and such war, if it weren't for the depression, we'd be over 100 mbpd....etc.

Still, asking EIA, CERA/IHS and other institutions to at least provide realistic error bands not based on magical thinking, given how wrong they've been, can be helpful. Because it will inject some energy urgency into the current financial discussions dominating the political scene.

I'm sorry, Nate, but I disagree. First you acknowledge that those who refuse to see this always have an excuse to continue not seeing this, then you suggest that by asking a question we can change their perspective. Yet the question was asked (by Ace) and they had an excuse.

It seems to me that your argument is circular.

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Nate Hagens on February 23, 2009 - 2:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The part I left out is that if IHS/EIA etc cannot provide such error bands, then those making policy/investment decisions might finally start to smell something fishy with the post hoc ergo propter hoc energy economic voodoo. If such an 'aha' realization that we are flying blind were to occur, then one would hope that decisions would me made more directed at basic needs than focusing on stock market, economic growth, etc.

In any case I put more weight in my first paragraph than in my second, especially at $39 oil. And thank you for pointing out the flaw in my reasoning. It probably won't be my last due to information return on time.

P.s stay tuned for next Saturday's campfire - might be one you'd like to read...

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137 comments on Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004

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