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137 comments on Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004

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Gail the Actuary on February 23, 2009 - 11:07am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Nice report! Thanks Ace.

We often hear talk about how much of our imports we get from non-OPEC countries, but clearly these imports will have to drop as production decreases.

If we look at EIA Crude and Condensate data, we find that

-North Sea peaked in 1999 at 5,948,000 barrels per day
-Mexico peaked in 2004 at 3,383,000 bpd
-Russia peaked in 2007 at 9,437,000 bpd

Among the other larger producers, there are several whose 2008 production is below 2007 production, based on data through November.

-Canada (including tar sands) 2,626,000 in 2007; 2,586,000 in 2008
-Nigeria 2,350,000 in 2007; 2,173,000 in 2008
-Kazakhstan 1,360,000 in 2007; 1,339,000 in 2008

Even those whose production is expanding is not expanding very much.

-China 3,729,000 in 2007; 3,799,000 in 2008
-Brazil 1,748,000 in 2007; 1,809,000 in 2008

All of this information supports what Ace is saying.

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watchinall on February 23, 2009 - 11:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There is also a rather lengthly editorial written by Jim Puplava of the Financial Sense News Hour that relates to this topic quite well. While he doesn't try to predict Peak oil he does look at the historical numbers and draws similar conclusions.

"Riders on a Storm"
http://www.worldenergysource.com/wes/stores/1/Riders-on-a-Storm-P1262C10...

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Gail the Actuary on February 23, 2009 - 11:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

One thing that Jim points out in his talk is that the price of oil really started to rise in 2004. I wonder if this may not be connected to non-OPEC 12 peaking in 2004, and the impact this had on world supply, and the oil we were buying. Below is a graph of one indicator of oil prices - the average cost US refineries had to pay for their oil inputs:

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Dryki on February 24, 2009 - 2:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

doesn't try to predict Peak oil

Why bother? Peak Oil is not even a mere nothing. Who cares? Of course, when he gets into the consequences.... oh hell, gimme that beer.

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westexas on February 23, 2009 - 12:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

-North Sea peaked in 1999 at 5,948,000 barrels per day
-Mexico peaked in 2004 at 3,383,000 bpd
-Russia peaked in 2007 at 9,437,000 bpd

Note that the North Sea peaked when it was about 50% depleted, based on the HL plot.

Khebab noted, I believe in the 2005 time frame, that Mexico was approaching the 50% depleted mark, based on the HL plot, and would probably soon start declining:

(Edit, it was three years ago, in March, 2006, and Mexico's net export decline has been worse than projected):
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/03/mexicos-ability-to-export-oil.html

And in my original post on the top three net oil exporters in January, 2006, after a good deal of discussion with Khebab, I concluded that Russia would probably resume a production decline within one to two years, although I probably overestimated the decline rate. Khebab, in our top five paper, puts the projected 10 year Russian decline at -5.1%/year plus or minus 2%/year:

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/image013.png

Note that the absolute Russian peak was back in the Eighties.

And then we have Saudi Arabia, which is going to almost certainly show three years of annual production below their 2005 rate, at about the same stage of depletion at which the prior swing producer started declining.

The CEO of Total was just on CNBC. He said that the worst case would be a spike in oil prices, due to supply problems, before we see an increase in demand. That is of course what I expect to see--a combination of voluntary + involuntary net export reductions outpacing the decline in demand, with future net export declines being mostly involuntary.

Top Five Net Oil Exports versus Annual US Spot Crude Oil Prices:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/slide1.png

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The Dude on February 23, 2009 - 4:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No doubt also posted in Drumbeat: RIGZONE - Mexican Oil Output Down by 9.2% in January. The country is going down at a rate you'd expect from an offshore field.

Here's the schedule for 2009 Megaprojects, derived from the Wiki:

Khursaniyah (AFK Ph 2) was scheduled to come online last month, haven't heard about any ribbon cutting though.

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dandyone on February 24, 2009 - 4:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Let's not forget the good old US of A! We peaked in 1970, and with the exception of one small bump, we've been in terminal decline ever since...

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westexas on February 24, 2009 - 7:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And the US went from the discovery of its largest Lower 48 oil field--the East Texas Field--in 1930, to zero net oil exports in only 18 years, in 1948, 22 years before we peaked.

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Aniya on February 25, 2009 - 1:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks, Jeff,

An interesting, useful fact.

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137 comments on Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004

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