137 comments on Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004
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137 comments on Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004
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Note that the North Sea peaked when it was about 50% depleted, based on the HL plot.
Khebab noted, I believe in the 2005 time frame, that Mexico was approaching the 50% depleted mark, based on the HL plot, and would probably soon start declining:
(Edit, it was three years ago, in March, 2006, and Mexico's net export decline has been worse than projected):
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/03/mexicos-ability-to-export-oil.html
And in my original post on the top three net oil exporters in January, 2006, after a good deal of discussion with Khebab, I concluded that Russia would probably resume a production decline within one to two years, although I probably overestimated the decline rate. Khebab, in our top five paper, puts the projected 10 year Russian decline at -5.1%/year plus or minus 2%/year:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/image013.png
Note that the absolute Russian peak was back in the Eighties.
And then we have Saudi Arabia, which is going to almost certainly show three years of annual production below their 2005 rate, at about the same stage of depletion at which the prior swing producer started declining.
The CEO of Total was just on CNBC. He said that the worst case would be a spike in oil prices, due to supply problems, before we see an increase in demand. That is of course what I expect to see--a combination of voluntary + involuntary net export reductions outpacing the decline in demand, with future net export declines being mostly involuntary.
Top Five Net Oil Exports versus Annual US Spot Crude Oil Prices:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/slide1.png
No doubt also posted in Drumbeat: RIGZONE - Mexican Oil Output Down by 9.2% in January. The country is going down at a rate you'd expect from an offshore field.
Here's the schedule for 2009 Megaprojects, derived from the Wiki:
Khursaniyah (AFK Ph 2) was scheduled to come online last month, haven't heard about any ribbon cutting though.