Some may wonder why "Gail the Actuary" would get into the oil business. Actuaries work in the insurance business and make all kinds of forecasts about claim experience, investment income, and most anything else that goes into insurance company operations. It was pretty clear from my early reading and thinking about the situation that peak oil would wipe out the financial system and with it the insurance system.

Insurance companies collect premiums, invest the proceeds until it becomes time to pay claims or benefits, and then pay out the claims or benefits. If everyone else is losing money on their investments, insurance companies are likely to lose money as well. Some actuaries work with pension plans, and the idea is the same --collect funding, invest it for a period or time, and then pay out benefits. Same problem.

Life insurance companies seem to be getting into trouble already because they promised more (on annuities and other products) than investments in real life are going to deliver.

Pension plans are likely already getting into trouble, but they can often hide the situation for a while. As I understand it, there is some flexibility in when a pension plan recognizes an investment downturn. Their payments are very long term in nature, so they likely have enough cash on hand for now, even if their investments aren't doing well.

Property casualty insurers (workers compensation, auto, homeowners, medical malpractice, etc) are doing a little better. They tend to invest in high-grade bonds, with much less exposure to stocks. Insurance regulations allow P/C companies to carry the bonds at amortized value on their books, unless there is a clear problem with the bond. With this accounting, unless there is really a default, the companies' financial statements still look reasonably OK. Also, if there is less driving, auto claims are likely down. I would expect homeowners' experience to get worse, with all of the vacant houses sitting around.