Hello WT,

Kudos to you, Khebab, Curt Cobb, and others trying to spread the ELM to the MSM. Let's hope the ELM makes its debut soon on the WSJournal, CNBC, and the major networks where the pundits can talk about it in an hour long format [not just a few minute soundbite].

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

I think that this paper by Kurt Cobb is one of the most brilliant and original papers I have read on Peak Oil and resource limits:

Great Graph by Kurt Cobb that shows how dependent we are on food & energy:
http://bp1.blogger.com/_-uualVqzFPk/RqzoKrjp48I/AAAAAAAAAE4/fV4VTpfl5gA/...

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/32718

Published Jul 29 2007 by Resource Insights

Upside down economics

by Kurt Cobb

This method for depicting the economy was suggested to me by two things. First, Liebig's Law of the Minimum states that an organism's growth is limited by the amount of the least available essential nutrient. In the case of world society that nutrient would be food, though many would argue that fossil fuels are the essential nutrient since so much food production depends on the use of fossil fuels and their derivatives including fertilizers and pesticides. Second, a piece by Dmitry Podborits argues that it is nonsense to say that the U. S. economy is less vulnerable to oil supply disruptions today than in 1970s because it produces twice as much GDP per barrel of oil. Instead, Podborits suggests, we are more vulnerable to oil supply disruptions because we have so much more GDP balanced on each barrel of oil. The same argument might be made with respect to agriculture which in the United States in 1930 employed 21.5 percent of the workforce and made up 7.7 percent of GDP. In 2000 the numbers were 1.9 percent of the workforce and 0.7 percent of GDP. We are balancing an ever larger total economy on an agricultural economy that on a relative basis is shrinking. Certainly, we are getting more efficient, but are we becoming more vulnerable?

westexas,

While being fully aware that your critique of BAU is essentially Malthusian, the graphic you linked reminded me of the mental image conjured up by this quote. It describes the philosophy of one of Malthus' fellow heretical pessimists, Thorstein Veblen:

The machine was not concerned with values and profits; it ground out goods. Hence the businessman would have no function to perform--unless he turned engineer. But as a member of the leisure class he was not interested in engineering; he wanted to accumulate. And this was something the machine was not set up to do at all. So the businessman achieved his end, not by working within the framework of the social machine, but by conspiring against it! His function was not to help make goods, but to cause breakdown in the regular flow of output so that values would flucturate and he could capitaize on the confusion to reap a profit. And so, on top of the machinelike dependability of the actual production apparatus in the world, the businessman built a superstructure of credit, loans, and make believe capitaliztions. Below, society turned over in its mechanical routine; above the strucutre of finance swayed and shifted. And as the financial counterpart to the real world teetered, opportunities for profit constantly appeared, disappeared, and reappeared. But the price of this profit seeking was high; it was the constant disturbing, undoing, even conscious misdirecting of the efforts of society to provision itself.

--Robert L. Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers

Interesting. Veblem is describing very accurately the banksters' techniques covered in the excellent documentary The Money Masters, where it's referred to as a "rowing" of the economy, a churning, up and down, to wring out profits and to hell with the little guy.