Sam, great work, as usual.

I think that the initial Lower 48, overall North Sea and World (EIA, C+C) decline rates are very interesting.

The Lower 48 1970 to 1973 decline rate was -1.4%/year. The 1973-1979 decline rate was -3.9%/year.

The North Sea 1999-2002 decline rate was -0.8%/year. The 2002-2008 decline rate was -6.7%/year.

The world data show that 2008 was essentially flat with 2005, well within any reasonable margin of error, with a measurable cumulative shortfall between what we would have produced at the 2005 rate and what we actually produced.

One common connection for all three case histories is that the regions showed lower cumulative production in response to rising average annual oil prices, over the initial decline periods. Also, based on the logistic (HL) plots, the Lower 48 in 1970, the North Sea in 1999 and the World in 2005 were all about 50% depleted (conventional crude).

I think that the difference is that the world is getting a small contribution from unconventional production, but this analysis suggests that 2009 is to the World, as 2003 was to the North Sea, as 1974 was to the Lower 48, i.e., the start of the more rapid production decline. I suspect that a more rapid production decline worldwide is presently being obscured by the decline in demand.

BTW, in regard to our (Foucher & Brown) joint articles, as I told Sam a couple of days ago, I think that he deserves more credit for the superb modeling work he has done, and in regard to the actual work done, especially in regard to the modeling work, this has been more of a 90% Foucher/10% Brown effort.

--Jeffrey J. Brown