I wrote this post to try to get people to start do a little more thinking, instead of just the knee jerk reaction--anything that doesn't use an obvious fuel is sustainable and good; everything else is bad and to be eliminated.

I am afraid I don't have all of the answers on this, but I don't think that just jumping on the bandwagon du jour is the right approach.

Renewable resources should be exploited in a manner such that:
(1) harvesting rates do not exceed regeneration rates; and
(2) waste emissions do not exceed the renewable assimilative capacity of the local environment.

Balancing Nonrenewable and Renewable Resources
Nonrenewable resources should be depleted at a rate equal to the rate of creation of renewable substitutes.

Link is here written by Herman Daly

Here's another link to a lecture by Saul Griffth who has crunched the numbers in terms of Renewable Energy. By his own admission he's an optimist Saul Griffth pdf lecture, its over 7mb. Reading the numbers didn't make me feel over optimistic so I've got no idea why he is!

Sustainability needs a time reference, but if someone means for more than a generation there doesn't appear to be anything that looks remotely sustainable about our energy/resource consumption. Perhaps humans can solve environmental and energy problems, just the probability of a slimed down population looks high. I guess Gaia will tell humans what's sustainable in the end!

If that's an accurate quote, Herman Daly is spot on. However, you said "sustainability needs a time reference." Why? If you add any period at all, then you have a problem next year because your strategy now covers a smaller period (let's say 99 years instead of 100 years). The only sensible approach is to use a time reference of "indefinitely". That's a challenge, but any strategy for a finite period of time is not a strategy for sustainability.

I'm just glad we can leave the death of the Sun and Proton decay for future generations to worry about...

Nick.

I thought the only thing sustainable was daily or stored photosynthesis .... if so

are we talking batteries and PV panels

OR

trees - firewood

plants - food

or ??

PV panels may also be unsustainable, or unsustainable at some level. PV panels used limited resources. Also, all of the sun's energy, that gets trapped, is currently employed powering natural energy systems and growth.

Please detail the limited resources that the majority of silicon PV cells use.

Also, all of the sun's energy, that gets trapped, is currently employed powering natural energy systems and growth.

Such as parking lots, roadways, rooftops, etc?

All of the resources that go into PV cells are limited. No PV cell is made entirely of silicon, nor is the infrastructure to support its use.

All of the sun's energy is currently employed. Sunlight is absorbed by some of those structures you mention and re-emitted. Some is reflected off those structures you mention. I'm not saying that there isn't any level of redirection we can do, just that we should be careful about how we go about it and at what level. To assume that nothing bad could come of diverting some of the sun's energy is to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Most of the elements needed for PV cells/frames/wiring can come from the four most common elements in Earth's crust, so there probably isn't a practical limit within the next few hundred years given the projected world population in that context. If we, instead of having our roofs absorb light from the sun and radiate it as heat, do the same with solar panels, with an intermediate step where we convert some of that energy into electricity and back to heat when we use it, we still have the same amount of energy being radiated back into space as heat and so on. What's causing the most trouble is the use of fossil fuels, which changes how much of the energy from the sun is trapped in the Earth's biosphere. Even if we somehow managed to increase the rate of light absorption/radiation as heat to the point where we're trapping as much additional energy as we are now due to GHG emissions, it still wouldn't impact the climate as much as those GHG emissions because the original (w/o GHGs) emissivity of the atmosphere would allow for the vast majority of that energy to escape. The problem with GHGs is that we have this tremendous source of energy bombarding the Earth 24/7/365 and we're changing how much energy we're letting out.

"Most of the elements" is not all of the elements and "the next few hundred years" suggests unsustainable.

I agree that, on the face of it, roofs generating electricity that can do useful work (provided that work doesn't adversely affect our habitat) that ends up as heat is preferable to simply generating the heat in the first place, I'm now very wary of us assuming anything. There are always consequences.

Lesse, we have steel for the mounting hardware, Si for the panels, Al for the larger wiring, what am I missing that isn't present in sufficient amounts? In terms of the limiting factor, it would seem to be Al/Fe for mounting the panels and the wiring since Si is present in the crust in much greater amounts. I suppose we could look at the copper/lead on any circuitry in the panels, but even weighted for relative abundance that's below the limits presented by Al/Fe. Looking at current production of Fe/Al for one year, one quarter of that limiting factor would provide enough material to construct enough panels to supply enough energy for 10 billion people to live at a European standard of living the next forty years or so. The high quality Si, as well as the Al/Fe can all be recycled, so production for just forty years can supply enough in the way of solar panels for the next 6000+ years, not including recycling, which is already at ~70-80% IIRC and would undoubtedly increase in light of scarce supply, extending that to 30,000+ years.

Given that, I find it very unlikely that solar PV will be the limiting factor in sustainability, especially compared to current human impacts. Course, predicting anything past even a hundred years is more or less impossible, so at the very best all we can do is concentrate on being more sustainable, not planning for sustainability to infinity and beyond.

I don't have a full list of materials that go into the panels and the infrastructure to support the manufacture, distribution and operation of the panels and the resultant electricity but I'm sure it is far more varied that you imply. I understand indium is used in many/most panels, for example, and steel requires a carbon source. Ore extraction facilities require resources (and can do environmental damage). Manufacturing facilities require varied resources (for construction and operation).

Solar PV is a limiting factor in sustainability, just as using any limited resource (no matter what the theoretical size of the resource) would be. But solar PV could certainly be a help in providing energy at a limited but sustainable level.

There are more materials, but the bulk of overall materials is in the infrastructure, not manufacturing, unless we're destroying and rebuilding our manufacturing line every year. ;) Transmission is almost all Al/Fe. For steel news on biocharcoal seems to be picking up a bit, although it's not receiving a lot of publicity since coking coal isn't going to be in short supply any time soon, compared to oil at least. Indium is used in thin film panel manufacturing, specifically in CIGS, but thin film is only projected to capture ~30% of the market by 2012, and has been and will represent the minority of panels produced for a while. Even then, it's not like we can't make solar panels w/o Indium, just that at the moment they appear to be the cheapest, at least in bulk, with thin film Silicon not too far behind IIRC. While Indium may present a limit to CIGS based thin film, solar panels in general do not require it, it just happens to allow for the cheapest manufacturing at the moment.

Besides, saying that solar PV is a limiting factor in sustainability because it uses limited resources is kind of pointless since the sun's useful lifespan is also limited for the same reason. I mean, when looking at sustainability, we should be looking at likely (and present in some cases) limiting factors, not trivial ones. Sure, we can't have an infinite number of solar panels, just like we can't have an infinite time with the sun as it is now, but neither one is a meaningful limiting factor in terms of sustainability, at least not yet. If we manage to get to that point that they are likely limits whenever in the future I'll happily concede the fact, but as of right now we have thousands of years worth of other crap that'll provide a limit far sooner than solar panels, or for that matter the sun's lifetime, will.

You keep saying things like "the bulk of" and "almost all", as though they mean the same as "all". If any resource becomes scarce, no matter how little is used, that will define the limit unless there is a ready substitute of at least equal quality.

Even if we don't destroy our manufacturing capability each year (with or without a smiley), to increase the capacity will take extra resources.

Even if Al and Fe are vast resources, theoretically, in practical terms they are more limited. But just because a resource will last (and be able to be extracted at constant or increasing rates) for hundreds of years or thousands of years, or more, that doesn't make it infinite.

You also use throw away terms like "isn't going to be in short supply any time soon" without defining "soon" or citing sources for such optimism.

It is not pointless to point out that PV is not unlimited and has a limit for sustainability. It IS pointless to state the Sun's useful lifespan, since solar energy, per se, is not a limiting factor for sustainability but our diversion of solar energy, and the resources needed to do so, will be limiting at some level. We should not assume that there is no practical limit because that can lead to unsustainable strategies. Why not tread carefully? I don't see what the downside would be other than having to think before acting.

Interesting Venn diagram, and interesting evaluation grid.

But some more-or-less obvious criteria perhaps should be added, such as: () Does the production of the fuel compete too vigourously with other necessities, such as food? () Can the environment absorb and neutralize (detoxify) waste products from fuel production at least as fast as they are being produced?

I agree that looking at the demands of sustainability in the various relevant categories can cut through a lot of nonsense.

This is a first cut. If it gets too complicated, it gets hard to follow. You get the point, though.

Actually "you can't do that" with a Venn diagram... that is to say three overlapping circles can represent

1 A
2 AB
3 AC
4 ABC
5 B
6 BC
7 C

But with four circles (and mapping theory will explain this, but common sense will more or less demonstrate it) you can't topographically represent the intersection of only two circles if they are on opposite sides... because those circles only intersect in places where other circles also lie.

So unless you are attempting to diagram a complex and improbable dependency relationship between opposite side circles, which always involves other circles also being relevant.... the Venn diagram is inapt.

Because it's not a coloring book exercise... it is no fair just coloring in partial hemicircles!

But I quibble.

Gail the Actuary said:

I wrote this post to try to get people to start do a little more thinking

A little more thinking, Gail, is not inventing your own definitions of sustainability.

mikeB said:

Is sustainable: "capable of being maintained indefinitely?" Or is it: "capable of being maintained over such a period of our choosing that it comforts us?"

This is a very important question. If one want to talk about "sustainable" then one can't include riders like "over x years or centuries", because fresh, and possibly greater, problems arise as the end of that time period approaches. If you add a time period then you are making a totally arbitrary statement. Your time period might not match with anyone else's.

If we use a time period of "indefinitely" then we cover all bases, over which we have some control (obviously, we can't take much account of asteroid strikes, super-volcanoes and the like). So why include so-called sustainability criteria like the cost of increased capacity?

Growth is not sustainable. Period.

If we want energy, we need to figure out how to use whatever the resource is only at a sustainable rate and in a sustainable way, otherwise it is unsustainable, by definition. Sustainability means not consuming any resource (renewable or non-renewable) beyond its renewal rate and not damaging our habitat in a way that might negatively impact our ability to survive. These are the only criteria you should be considering, Gale, at least as far as sustainability is concerned. Obviously, it will take a while to get there and there are certainly population issues to address, but we aren't going to get there by assuming any non-renewable fuel is sustainable or that any renewable energy source can be used at any amount.

Sofistek,
You have raised a good point about the time period. If we take "indefinitely " nothing is sustainable, the Universe will eventually die.
If we take as far ahead as we can extrapolate then 1,000 to 10,000 years would be the maximum.

"Growth is not sustainable. Period."

Do you mean growth in sustainable use of resources or unsustainable use?. Do you mean 0.1% growth/year or 5% growth per year?. Do you mean growth in GDP? growth in new music, new moves, new video games, new art works? or do you mean growth in energy use?
If you are implying all economic growth HAS to be accompanied by growth in energy use, that depends upon type of economy and growth rate and increase in energy efficiency(GDP/energy use).
If renewable and sustainable energy is the source of economic growth, then growth is sustainable IF sources of sustainable energy are not exhausted.

Yes, Neil, nothing can last forever but why should we put an arbitrary time limit on sustainability? To do so implies that we wish to consume more than the annual budget that is provided by the sun and our biosphere and could possibly damage our habitat, providing it was done slowly. Using a term like "indefinite" implies that we live within our means, always. Surely that would be a sensible thing to do?

As growth is not sustainable, it doesn't matter what growth we talk about. 0.1% growth per year is unsustainable, just as growth at 0.001% or 10% is. By making a distinction between different rates, you are implicitly putting a time limit on sustainability. See above for my views on that.

Growth in the consumption of resources, or in pollution or damaging emissions, is unsustainable. Apply this to any of your growth examples to see if they are sustainable. Do they consume more resources over time? Do they damage our environment?

Renewable energy is not sustainable, if it uses resources beyond their renewal rate, or in a way that damages the environment (i.e. alters it is a way that is detrimental to our wellbeing). So it's impossible to say that economic growth based on renewable energy is sustainable. Firstly, economic growth consumes resources other than energy. Secondly, renewable energy infrastructure consumes non-renewable resources, so increasing capacity, to fuel economic growth, is unsustainable on an on-going basis. Thirdly, extracting energy from natural systems, for our own purposes, may have small but significant impacts on our environment; it should never be assumed that we can't possibly do damage.

Sofistek,
If we don't put a time limit on sustainability we have ridiculous outcomes, ie 0.1% growth in energy is unsustainable, but also is a 0.1% decrease in energy use, leading to less energy to sustain one person.

If an economy grows at 1% and GDP/energy use also grows at 1%, that's sustainable for a long time provided other resources are available, or can be substituted.

The examples I was giving entertainment, arts, were examples of "service industries" low in resource use, high in value, a $ spent on these products is one $ less spent on perhaps a new car or a power boat.

"Renewable energy is not sustainable, if it uses resources beyond their renewal rate, or in a way that damages the environment"

Let's look at wind power; used mainly steel and cement in manufacturing. Iron is 5% of the earth's crust, cement is composed of Ca, Si, Al also very abundant. Renewal rates are not relevant, if extraction could occur for 2Billion years.
Other components used may be sustainable for 100 years but not 1,000 or 10,000, but over longer periods technology can change, or products recycled.

I would agree about what you have said about damaging the environment, but surely a recovery time is also relevant!. If we are concerned with CO2, a rise will take >1,000 years to recover due to slow geologic processes, so "damage" has to be defined on terms that is relevant. On the other hand, harvesting timber is a short term process, 10-100 years, if an energy resource uses wood, it will cause a short term "damage" to the environment, but can be sustainable, just as Elephants "damage" trees but the forest recovers if elephant populations do not increase beyond a limit.

"Thirdly, extracting energy from natural systems, for our own purposes, may have small but significant impacts on our environment; it should never be assumed that we can't possibly do damage."

Does hydro power, by creating lakes, damage the environment? if so should we undo the "damage" created in the last ice age, when many lakes were created by moraine dams? I would argue the "damage" created by dams is short term(100-200years), but no different on a 1,000-10,000 year time scale to natural "dams"( ie all lakes).

Neil,

A 0.1% decrease is not growth. Consuming less helps to get us on a path to sustainability but consuming more does not. I think it is certainly ridiculous, as you write, to contemplate 0.1% decline for ever, and no-one is suggesting that, although the decline will eventually become minuscule in actual quantity. It is also ridiculous to contemplate a 0.1% growth forever, since we live on a finite planet, but I bet we could go a lot longer with a 0.1% decline that a 0.1% increase.

"Sustainable for a long time" is not sustainable. The word becomes fairly meaningless, when used in that way. One might as well say that a 10% increase in oil consumption is sustainable for a year (because we're told that spare capacity could be up to 8 mbpd) but that is of little use, long term. However, suppose 1% GDP and energy growth can be maintained for a "long" time, you're right to point to the assumption that other resources can also grow as needed for such growth. So what would be the time period for such growth? Who knows? No-one, but many will make guesses, hope they're right and hope that some miracle will occur before a rethink is needed.

Entertainment and arts, though almost essential for quality of life, are not essential for living. Economic growth coming only from those areas may last a lot longer but the economy will look very different if that is what is relied on for growth. However, even low resource consumption, growing, is unsustainable.

Renewal rates are always relevant. You can't discount them simply because the mathematical proportion in the earth's crust is high. They still have to be mined and processed, with environmental damage repaired. But most people, surely, are not looking at growing energy consumption without doing anything with it? So what is the relevance of stating that some types of renewable energy can grow for a very long time, assuming that "a very long time" is a satisfactory time period for everyone?

Good point about recovery period but isn't that the point? Suppose wood was, again, an important energy source. Maybe coppicing or re-seeding at a low rate, providing the use was low, could look like an infinite supply. A 1,000 year recovery period might be difficult to view as a sustainable supply because it is well beyond the lifespan of any human.

Dams alter local habitats in periods that are significant to human timescales. Hundreds of years recovery time is too long for everyone alive at the time the dam is built.

Living sustainably, on timescales that are meaningful to individuals, make it more likely that societies can be sustainable indefinitely. Causing environmental damage deliberately, in the hope that the damage will be repaired over many generations (and assuming we don't continue to inflict that scale of damage) doesn't seem like a useful strategy for sustainability, to me.