190 comments on DrumBeat: March 11, 2009
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
190 comments on DrumBeat: March 11, 2009
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
Google search
Advanced search
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
- How do we maintain adequate phosphorus and potassium levels for crops?
- What should we do with funds set aside for retirement?
- Leading the Way to a Low-Energy Future
TOD:Europe
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- Electric Vehicles: The End Of Australian Manufacturing ?
- Upcoming Forum In Sydney: 'Peak Oil - Is this the end of civilisation as we know it ?'
- From Counterculture To Cyberculture: The Life And Times Of Stewart Brand
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”
—Albert Einstein
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Dave Murphy, Engineer-Poet, Glenn, Heading Out, Jason Bradford, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Nate Hagens, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:ANZ: aeldric, Big Gav, Phil Hart
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDCOM2mACDYY&refer=home
Perhaps the Chinese will be able to use all those new cars in the new suburbs they are building as part of their plan to emulate American's great and enviable successes in that area. They are now outpacing us in Big Head production. I get it. Why should they forego their version of the American dream just because the demise of the planet as we know it might get in the way? China is in their adolescence. I can relate. When I was 16, driving a car was just fun, fun, fun all the way. And oh how we loved driving up and down the strip.
" I get it. Why should they forego their version of the American dream just because the demise of the planet as we know it might get in the way?"
I think we are entering a phase of The Transition where each party tries to keep their economy alive long enough for the others to collapse.
The last economy standing gets to eat the most of the remaining cake.
I think of it more like putting off the inevitable... And besides, the further up you are in energy consumption, the harder the fall will be post-peak... And for China, it's looking to be a BIG fall...
I don't know who'll crash first, but we are all going down more or less together. That's the one real "accomplishment" of globalization. There are people who defend empire saying that if it isn't us it will be them. But things are different this time. No one will be left standing -- no more world empires. Everyone will be forced into survival mode.
There are preferred modes of collapse. I prefer the way the Soviets collapsed, not that it was pleasant for the populace (it was disastrous, remains disastrous) but at least the nukes didn't fly. That part should be emulated.
Here's an Orlov interview I liked:
http://vodpod.com/watch/1417645-dmitry-orlov-the-collapse-of-america-is-...
Well, surely that won't result in an increase in consumption, right? (Note to the inept: That was sarcasm.)
It blows my mind when people argue that supplies will be A-OK when we have China and India increasing their consumption when production isn't increasing... Even people who remember the 70's vividly don't seem to comprehend that supplies MUST eventually become tight, it's only a question of time. The levels in which people consciously ignore facts is amazing to me..
On the other hand, maybe all those new cars sold will help out GM, since it's their largest growing market? (More sarcasm, even though it *IS* true that China is their largest growing market.)
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
It has been their largest growing market for a long time-for some reason Chinese consumers think GM products are great-God forbid the USA government, so good at wasting taxpayer funds on bailouts, should in any way help GM leverage this illogical attraction by the Chinese consumer.
and up 22% in India!:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123658079910068861.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Regards,
Nawar
IMO, regarding the auto industry, the big difference between now and the Thirties (when we saw in increase of three million more cars on the road in the US in 1937 versus 1929, per Downsouth), is that millions of people wanted to drive a car for the first time in the Thirties---while today hundreds of millions of people want to drive a car for the first time.
That's one of the reasons I believe the oil bears who think world oil demand may sink by 15 or 20 million BOPD in the event of a world-wide depression could be mistaken.
I have yet to see anybody walking home from the grocery store with their bags.
In eastern Europe, women take an empty bag with them to work (on mass transit), and come home with something every day. It never crossed their mind to make a special trip to fill up the car.
My wife is from the Czech Republic which we visit regulary. I don't know about you but I've only seen malls mushrooming on the edge of minor and major towns with giant car parks and people wanting and going to shop, shop, shop. It's a very one-sided picture of Eastern Europe you paint there.
indeed. i'm from romania, and i can confirm this.
malls and supermarkets are thriving. the only thing is, most of them are inside town, where pretty much all the population is. The trips are made by car, but it's a 10 mile round trip at maximum. also, good public transportation is available, but it's kindof hard to buy much stuff and carry it home by bus.
the only malls outside town are the DIY and furniture (ikea) types. where you make a trip maybe once a year.
I am talking about Bucharest!
It's true, I am being a little nostalgic for a few years ago. Everybody is getting all caught up in being more American.
I traveled through Europe extensively in 2000, both western nations and eastern. On the fringes of every city across Europe I saw what could extensively be referred to as suburban/exurban housing, with nearby auto-centric shopping centers. All nations also had highways very much similar to American interstate freeways.
While Europe does have better mass transit options and much higher population density I get a little perterbed about the misconception that no Europeans drive or live in the "suburbs" when in actuality many do.
aquapura
I'll back you up on that. Due to my Irish heritage, I've been going to Ireland off and on since the early 90's. From 2002 to 2007 I did an annual 500 mile bike tour in the west central part of the country. As much as I think about doing it again before air fares are prohibitive (and yes, I do feel a little guilty about flying - but, I don't rent a car) I have lost much of the interest I had before urban sprawl and auto size/traffic increased so dramatically. It has become so much more dangerous on the narrow scenic roads that the charm is fading fast.
We only stay at B&Bs and I've yet to find an owner that lets their kid bike to school except where the roads are unusually quiet. We found it interesting if you talk to almost any 10 to 15 year old kid there, they can tell you exactly how many days before they can drive a car. As far as I can tell, auto ownership is a real passion in Ireland.
OFF-TOPIC: I did a backpacking tour of western Ireland back in Jan. '87. An amazing experience. We did about 250 miles, I think, in about 27 days. We didn't walk all days, so the avg. was something like 13 mi/day.
The B&Bs were how we traveled, too. We hit the Shannon, Limerick, the Dingle Peninsula, Galway, The Burren, Connemara and many little towns along the way. I remember many nights in front of a pot belly stove stuffed with peat. While most had a lot of money on hand, I lived off of pub sandwiches and an occasional Shepherd's pie.
The B&Bs were a wonder of wonderful people and cold, damp beds - despite the inches of sheets and blankets we had. The breakfasts could fuel you through half your 13 miles! Eggs, sausages, blood pudding, marmalade...
One of the best times of my life. Thanks for bringing this to mind.
Cheers
if you ever visit bucharest again, give me a sign :)
My bus driving experience confirms that shopping bags and buses don't mix well. I've witnessed poor women bringing home several bags of groceries on the bus. It can really put us behind schedule which is a disservice to the other passengers and is not something I would recommend to anyone. There really are things that are better done by private cars and taxis.
The groceries required for a day or two for a small family are not typically disruptive in my experience.
Shop every day or every other day and the problem shrinks dramatically. So does walking to the grocery store.
Alan
Shopping trips by bus are perfectly normal everywhere in the world, cause zero inconvenience, and should be encouraged.
"zero"? Really?
I could see "acceptable" or "tolerable", but "zero"?
I have only every tourist-shopped by bus, but I have traveled a lot by plane and in some localities by bus and subway, and it's noticeably more difficult for all involved with a toddler and car-seat in tow, or even just a roll-along suitcase.
I recall as a teen visiting Holland that the people I was staying with shopped every day for foods, and were unexpectedly kept running for food by a house full of teen boys rather than the normal couple of toddlers. For them a loaf of bread and some lunch meat and cheese was lunches for a week...for us it was a not quite satisfying lunch once. Some families see a couple of bags of groceries as a weeklong supply; others see that as barely enough for lunch and dinner.
It's certainly more efficient time-wise to have one big shopping trip per week than a small trip every day. A monthly trip to Sam's even moreso -- how would one transport a trunk and backseat full of large boxes and cans by bus?
I find a 2.5 block to Zara's Grocery many times/week to be a "zero waste of time" since I enjoy the walk, and the break if working from home.
My 2 or 3 times/month 7 block walk to WalMart is much more trying. I sometimes drive because of the "stockpile" effect.
There is no inherent reason that multiple/daily shopping trips have to be more inefficient than a SUV full at Sam's.
Alan
I was replying to the complaints of the bus driver who thought transporting shoppers was inconvenient to other riders.
But to your point about bulk shopping, I would say that shopping habits in the US are driven by sprawl rather than considerations of convenience. If you live in Amsterdam, the closest shop is going to be a block away and on your way home from work. You can park your bike and be in and out in 10 minutes. Repeat every day and your food will always be fresh. In the US, total shopping times are probably longer because they usually involve dedicated trips and just making a full circuit of a place like Sam's takes a long time.
It's not the drive that bothers me. It's waiting in line at the checkout. I go shopping at 6am Saturday morning in order to avoid lines.
I really, really hate grocery shopping. Shopping every day is my idea of a nightmare.
Then you would like shopping at Zara's every day. Two cash registers, if a line of 3 appears, the second one typically opens.
Good place to catch up on the neighborhood gossip (sometimes wish lines were longer).
When WalMart targeted Zara's for comparison shopping# (why haven't they shut down like our plan said they should ?), Zara's ad response was "Life is too short to wait in lines".
# On a number of items, such as milk, olive oil, local bread & coffee, Zara's beats WalMart pricing. Overall, close to a tie (+3% more to shop at Zara's vs. WalMart ? Cheapest is detergent, toilet paper etc. at WalMart and daily items at Zara's)
And the food selections are typically healthier, and portions perhaps smaller, with daily or every other day shopping.
Best Hopes for Local Shopping,
Alan
No, I wouldn't. It's still a line.
And I don't like going through the checkout, even if there's no line. It's just a pain. I hate shopping.
I would pay someone to deliver groceries if I could.
I'm with Leanan.
Going to the store. What a mindless, brain dead chore.
Antoinetta III
Laundry.
"Once upon a time" I used to make the once a week run to the grocery store (fresh food ran out before next weekend). A fair amount of time/mental energy was spent planning what to buy & scheduling meals for a week (see home delivery).
Now is MUCH more enjoyable. More than once, around noon I will get hungry and start walking towards Zara's unsure of what I am going to buy for lunch. Today the Azaleas are just past their peak, some camellias are hanging on and the crepe myrtles are thinking about budding. Trumpet vines have just a handful of flowers now.
So much more fun than walking past rows & rows of cars.
The real drag for me was the planning and lists of "what to buy", then endless trips up * down aisles to buy it.
Best Hopes for NOT wasting time in sterile stores & parking lots,
Alan
We only buy canned and bulk goods at Walmart -- fresh stuff always comes from smaller, more local stores. I'd get produce at a farmer's market if there were one close, but there isn't.
Walmart wins on price hands-down here though -- everyday prices are cheaper than sales elsewhere, if you don't have coupons.
I'd get produce at a farmer's market if there were one close, but there isn't.
I wonder why there isn't one in your neighborhood ?
The closest one to me is about 3/4 mile down Magazine on Saturday morning (they rotate around city, next closest are two about 3 miles away) plus the oldest Farmers Market in the USA, 7 days/week in the French Quarter. I now buy most of my fish & shrimp from the Farmer's Market.
Could there be a cause and effect ?
Alan
I Googled this review of the Farmer's Market I go to most often
http://blog.eatwellguide.org/2008/05/a-green-fork-dispatch-from-new-orle...
I shop everyday, bus or foot. My local supermarket has automatic check out (no lines.) With a little scanner you scan your own purchases and then pay by debit or in cash if you like. Honor system.
In Switzerland both the big supermarkets (and there are only two) deliver for a very low cost: they call that eco-shopping and print comparison maps/stats of kms/trips/travel of the food etc. Order by internet, delivery can be same day even.
I sometimes get the feeling the US is a little old fashioned.
I like little shops, like butchers shops, dairy store, and such, but there you wait in line for some random time for others to be waited upon. At Walmart you always do, too, except it's at checkout unless you get lucky with a self-check register.
I can see that for some the walk, chatting with clerks and neighbors, and getting fresh produce every day would be welcome. Maybe once I'm retired it would be for me, too (except I don't think that day will ever come).
But for now, spending time doing all of that seems largely wasted, the effort unpleasant, and line-waiting intolerable. Now at least the pain comes but once a week while shopping in bulk, and perhaps another once or twice for a quick run-in while I'm out. I think I'd rather order on-line and pay somebody to bring me the stuff.
I think I'd rather order on-line and pay somebody to bring me the stuff.
Surely a viable strategy post-Peak Oil.
Best Hopes for walking or bicycling to get food,
Alan
Drive or Starve Americans
I occasionally wonder what percentage of Americans could put food on the table with driving.
Assume an oil supply emergency, "they" are unemployed and get food stamps. Can they, in their physical shape, walk & return with enough food (or bicycle IF they already have a bike, buying a bicycle may not be a given in these circumstances) ?
The answer will differ between next door neighbors, depending on age, health & shape and whether they have a bicycle with baskets.
My guess ?
30% of Americans are "Drive or Starve".
Alan
monthly bulk shopping by car is its own negative feedback loop. no exercise and crappy, processed bulk food just lead to obesity and ill health. shopping often in smaller batches for fresh food and ingredients has the opposite effect. in my neighborhood in spain people of all ages shop frequently and they have little carts that can hold quite a bit. they are easily hoisted into a bus for the rare person who lives too far from a market to walk. this is just totally commonplace.
Not for me. I buy in bulk, but the same stuff I'd buy otherwise. 4 pounds of butter, 25lbs of flour, 10lbs of long-grain rice, 12 cans of tomatoes, 10 cans of tuna, etc. The only pre-packaged crap is chips and Gatorade for the kids lunches. At least they eat home-made sandwiches like God intended!
I went with some friends in Bogota, Colombia last week to one of the big box hardware stores like Home Depot and I couldn't believe it. It was a weekday morning and the place was like a zoo. People were not only lined up to buy, but to buy big-ticket items.
I commented on the crowds to my friends and they told me that was nothing, that I should go on a Saturday.
I am on a four month gig in Bucharest and the best things that I have brought over here was my over the shoulder gym bag and my two handle canvas bag. I do not leave home without them. I like the place as it still retains some of the good parts as it has electrified rail, subway, electric trolleys and the electric buses. It takes a little while to get around, but most of the populace can walk or take public transport to farmers style markets. In addition they have central steam heating plants which help keep the stray dogs warm.
I have a car, only because I work in the future sprawl area on the road to Pitesti. Driving in Romania is a little more Darwinian than the US and I think that is good. No old people on the road! Old people have the time and public transport to get where they need to go. The credit crisis may have hit Romania at a good time, before the politicians sold out public transport for increase car travel. The selling of the Natural Resources to outside interests appears to be an issue, but I have not delved into it too much. We shall see, but I like the place; however, I am from Dayton, Ohio, Bucharest is a Big Move up IMHO.
Well when there is a world wide depression, that would imply a sharp drop in purchasing power as people lose their jobs, factories shut down, people travel less and generally less energy is required. If countries experience a severe credit crunch depression as I expect than social unrest will dismantle global oil demand. The Chinese have reported 26 million unemployed people in rural areas alone last year and if Roubini is correct they have experienced 0% growth if they conducted their statistics in the same manner as those of Western countries - using quarter over quarter growth rather than year over year, hence in a few years (or less) we could see massive social unrest there. As well as the US, Europe, Latin America.
This does not bode well for oil consumption. Also if we were to have a systematic failure in the global banking system than oil production and consumption could fall like a stone by half or even worse as there would be no credit and no guarantee of payment let alone ability to pay your staff and costs.
Picture shown acres of trashed taxis;
"Taxi Graveyard"
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,611825,00.html
"Thousands of scrapped taxis are abandoned in a yard in the center of Chongqing, China. Traffic congestion and pollution have worsened dramatically in Chinese cities because the country's long-running economic expansion has allowed increasing numbers of consumers to make big-ticket purchases such as cars, which means many no longer have to rely on taxis or public transportation."
Interesting. How does this "China vehicle sales surge" jive with this story then...with "data showing lower Chinese crude imports":
http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSN1135384420090311
I was reading or hearing on the news that China had "filled up" there SPR's too.
From the article:
Probably the more meaningful number would be January & February net oil imports versus same time period last year.
In any case here are some 10 year (1997 to 2007, EIA) consumption & net import data for Chindia (China + India):
Consumption:
5.7 mbpd to 10.4 mbpd (+6.0%/year)
Net Oil Imports:
1.6 mbpd to 5.6 mbpd (+12.5%/year)
If we assume flat production, and assume a +3%/year rate of increase in consumption (half of the rate over the past 10 years), to 14.0 mbpd, their net imports would increase at about +5.0%/year to about 9.2 mbpd in 10 years (2017).
If Chindia were somehow able to maintain a +6%/year rate of increase in consumption, again assuming flat production, they would be (net) importing 14.2 mbpd in 2017.
Our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters will be (net) exporting about 11 mbpd in 2017, versus 24 mbpd in 2005.
Well that might change drastically in the next few months,
The crisis is affecting China in a bottom-top manner. With the poorest labourers feeling the pinch first. The middle and upper classes will be severely affected in the coming year.
howver:
Regards,
Nawar