79 comments on LEARN: An Acronym to Avoid Societal Collapse
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79 comments on LEARN: An Acronym to Avoid Societal Collapse
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I expect the local political leadership to react to peak oil as they are reacting to global warming, with an honest and serious effort guided by reasonable scientific facts and extrapolations made by experts. The effort for limiting global warming would have a reasonable chase to limit the climate change if we in Sweden were more then about 1/1000 of the world population. I am sure that we will react in a sane way during the post peak oil era since resource limitations and the peak oil issue already is number two on the problem list due to obvious market changes and people and politicians listening to Kjell Aleklett among others.
These interconnected problems has lead to very large changes in the energy policies. For instance has one of the original anti nuclear parties recently accepted the need for building new reactors to replace the old ones to avoid a risk for electricity shortages in the 2020:s and 2030:s. We have one of the largest car and truck industries per capita in the world and it is still generally accepted that we need to invest more in the complementing electrified rail network to keep long term transportation costs under control. And most people do accept high CO2 taxes.
This does not mean that everything is perfect or going fast forward but most of the serious problems are being worked on by politicians or the market forces, eg individuals.
The financial crisis is making things uncertain but so far t is far from a collapse over here. Investments have not stopped and new things are being done.
This gives me the impression that we can have a rich "bio-nuclear" future, we only have to work hard during a few transition decades. But this do of course only work out well if you actually do something. LEARN is one example but I do not agree that it is that hopelss or that we wont have any energy. Water will flow downhill for a long time, the sun will shine and nuclear physics wont change while we can do what we already did in the 1960:s in a better way.
Magnus,
When started to read those words I was certain that I was reading parody gold, but you are actually saying this in earnest?!
My only response is that the 999/1000 remaining portion world's population would probably think that Sweden's reality might as well be on Mars, it certainly does not jive with the reality that I'm experiencing in my part of the world. Are you still accepting immigrants in Sweden? I'd like to apply. Or maybe you know how to transfer rational and responsible political leadership to outsiders?
It is fun to be patriotic and I do of course oversimplifie some but yes it is in earnest. We are well on the way to 50% renewable energy in 2020 while becoming a significant net electricity exporter and I expect that we will make as much biomass based fuel as we use fuel domestically around 2030-2040. These trends and efforts have roots back to the first oil crisis in the 1970:s, each crisis has among the malinvestments added a fair ammout of infrastructure and knowledge and this has accumulated making it reasonable to handle the next crisis.
Labour migration has been made much simpler since last year, now you basicaly only need an employer and then you have to work for five years to apply for citizenship if I remember right. All the details can be found on http://www.migrationsverket.se/english.html , please correct me if I am wrong.
But there might be a political window that could close in late 2010 if the next election goes badly and the migration sceptical labour unions gets influence thru the socialist party. I do not expect that people who have moved over here will be thrown out since such an idea woud scare a significant number of socialist party voters but it might become harder to get into Sweden.
Btw, the first fairly large contingent of migrants were a complete surprise, Indian computer programmers that probably were following the outsourcing trail back to its source.
I have no immediate idea for how to transplant the good parts of Swedish politics to other countries. A significant part of the public and politicians simply listen to scientific advice but that do of course not protect from the risk that the scietific view is incorrect or bad science such as low quality social sciences. This gives the situation that citing a good source can be a debate winner and one of the most popular dumb-politician youtube videos is a left wing member of parliamet who during a hearing on electrical cars suggested adding a windmill on the cars to charge the batteries while driving.
I would also recomending a study ouf our neighbours. Most of the things we do good the Finns do better, the Norwegians handled massive oil and gas incomes withouth turning all lazy and the Danes paid off their government foreign debt before the financial crisis. One key might be that a significant part of the populations expects multi generational planning?
Having been following the swedish energy policy already for several years as an outsider (I am a finn myself working in the energy sector) I would also say, it has a positive character. Sweden was the first country in the world to introduce an official mitigation plan in 2005 with respect to peak oil. "Oil-free Sweden" was it called, if I remember correctly. They have very ambitious targets both for energy efficiency as well as the enhancement of renewables covering every single sector of the society. Also what comes to climate change and CO2 the swedes are willing to go a couple of steps further than the EU targets. I guess a lot has to do with Kjell Aleklett, who has put much effort in trying to convince the politicians.
My impression of the swedish society is, that they have the courage to accept new ways of thinking and action long before others.
-harjalintu