The article wisely steers clear of the prickly issue of uranium. Some have pointed out that newly fashionable indium is perhaps as abundant as silver but there is no silver shortage. Others suggest that there are many rich undiscovered mineral deposits they are just deeper and harder to find.

If there are strategic reserves for oil I guess there could be the same for hard rock minerals. Rather than an absolute amount a depletion protocol or relative extraction rate could be stipulated. For example if the production to reserves ratio must be constant that gives a negative exponential curve of production over time. That curve never quite exhausts the resource. The temptation of course is to exaggerate reserves to justify higher production. It also means that the resource must be used more and more efficiently to meet growing population; the major mineral example here being phosphate.

On lithium I'm not too worried as I think affordable electric cars will be slow and clunky but use improved nickel and lead batteries.

Long-time lurker here turned new member.

You are partly correct in that lithium needs to come down in cost. But it also needs to have a higher efficiency, higher charging cycles and less explosive nature (which cannot be ever achieved without radical innovation). Lithium explodes when coming in contact with water.

You see lithium is obtained from Bolivia and Chile. With Evo Morales acting like the second coming of Hugo Chavez, it will be a problem getting enough lithium on the market. :) Also, a new thing to watch for. China produces most of the rare earth elements and they have reduced exports to concentrate on domestic consumption. They tried to get one Australian mining company but failed in Rio Tinto. And now they might be successful in Lynas.

As an analyst, I can tell you that the new area of these metals are in CIGS/CIS cells and displays. Watch out for them in the future. :)

One more thing, Tesla uses 6500 Li-ion cells for its PHEV car. They need to be vigorously tested for explosiveness (Remember the exploding laptop batteries sometime back). So, GM is piggybacking on the wrong tech in Li-ion for its Volt car. NiMH is great not only because of the stability of lanthanum (another rare element from China) but its recycling network is as good as lead-acid batteries. Toyota has test cars running on NiMH

Lithium explodes when coming in contact with water.

"The lithium-water reaction at normal temperatures is brisk but not violent"

I've seen a lump of lithium tossed into a tub of water. It was boring.

Tesla uses 6500 Li-ion cells for its PHEV car. They need to be vigorously tested for explosiveness

"Tesla Motors announced that the battery pack that will power the Tesla Roadster has been deemed safe by the United Nations Safety Requirements. The rigorous U.N. Testing Protocol for the Tesla Roadster ESS (Energy Storage System) included: altitude simulation, thermal cycling, vibration, shock and external short circuit."

It's unlikely that they would have been given authorization to sell the car without testing the battery pack. From what I've read, quite a bit of engineering went into exactly this problem.

NiMH is great

Yes, and that's one of the nice aspects of electric vehicles: there are many different battery chemistries and many different ways to generate electricity, and they all work together - and with any electric motor - without having to do anything special. My understanding is that there are electric vehicles on the road right now being powered by Li-ion, by NiMH, and by lead-acid batteries.

Accordingly, electric vehicles have less of a choke point than internal combustion vehicles, as there is no one mineral or fuel that is key.

"Accordingly, electric vehicles have less of a choke point than internal combustion vehicles, as there is no one mineral or fuel that is key."

I understand what you are saying. But the point is that you have to consider the implications of metals scarcity in its complete context: if there is a growing gap between production flow rates and demand across a large spectrum of metals simultaneously in the next few decades, than there is no "safe haven" to substitute one specific metal with the other specific metal. You might get a cascade of multiple and simultaneuos substitutions where everyone is chasing after the same set of metals. So for instance there might be a large demand simultaneously for every metal suitable to make accumulators for electric vehicles, amongst others lithium, nickel, cadmium, zinc, lead.

Why are we stuck on the idea that cars can only be made of metals?
Sure there are some parts that probably are best suited to manufacture from metals such as copper in electric motors but renewables and composites could also play a part.
1854 - Henricg Globel, a German watchmaker, invented the first true lightbulb. He used a carbonized bamboo filament placed inside a glass bulb. ...

Electric Bamboo car

Please see my comment below on lithium, including the reference at the end - it looks very much like we have quite enough.

The Lynas deal looks like an absolute steal from where I'm sitting -the Chinese have got access to a world class 20+ year resource for 'cents on the Dollar'.

When we look back on this 'Chinese hard-Asset Grab" in decades to come it will be increasingly clear that we have "sold Manhatten for a string of beads..."

Nick.

Disclaimer: I am increasingly LONG Lynas !!

"GM is piggybacking on the wrong tech in Li-ion for its Volt car. "

Not at all. GM is using a different chemistry, which is more stable than Tesla's. Have you looked at A123systems? It was one of two chemistries that were finalists for the Volt battery cells. I haven't looked at the LG chemistry in as much detail, but it's significantly different from the cobalt li-ion used by Tesla.

"lithium is obtained from Bolivia and Chile."

Lithium is reasonably abundant, and reasonably widely distributed: it's mostly produced now in S. America, but China is expanding production, and there are substantial sources elsewhere. It can be recycled efficiently.

It's rather like uranium: in the short run there could be boom-bust cycles of supply expansion and shortfalls, but in the medium-term there aren't really resource limits.

There was a widely read analysis a couple of years ago that raised questions, but those questions have been answered pretty thoroughly. The amount used by each battery isn't that great:
One estimate is that most lithium chemistries require around 3+lb/kWh of lithium carbonate, so for a 16KWH Volt type battery we would need about 50 lbs of lithium carbonate. At $2.75/lb, that's only $137.50, or 3.4% of the likely Volt battery cost of $4k (wholesale in 2-4 years). A doubling in the price of lithium would only increase the cost of a $30K vehicle (after $7,500 credit) by $137.50. GM is assembling their battery from cells made by LG Chem, the largest li-ion cell producer in the world - I suspect LG is pretty good at getting long-term contracts for their supplies.

If you want a more detailed general discussion this is good, and for some debate go here.

I understand where you are coming from. And I agree with your assessment. However, the alternate way of looking at it is the technology.

LG Chem uses lithium-manganese oxide (LiMn2O4) chemistry while A123 uses lithium-iron phosphate (LiFePO4) chemistry. LiMn2O4 has a limited cycle life and operates poorly as the temperature goes higher. The energy density is getting better as they incorporate more elements into the overall setup. But it isnt yet there comparable with LiFePO4 yet.

Why is this so? Better battery management system to avoid short-circuiting. BMS helps to extend battery cycle life by avoiding any over-charge or discharge. But that doesnt mean that LiFePO4 is the best. It is limited by its working voltage and the maximum charge voltage which isnt high. But it makes up with a lot more charging cycles of over 2500 and a slower rate of capacity loss.

As for Tesla, they use lithium-cobalt-oxide (LiCoO2). LiCoO2 have slow charge and discharge rates. They also breakdown at high temperatures (thermal runaway).

I see research happening in Lithium Nickel Cobalt Manganese Oxide Li(NiCoMn)O2 and lithium titanate (LiTiO3) (for Eestor batteries) in addition to LiFePO4. Thats why the cost of these batteries are still high and they will be until you get the chemistry right. I dont see PHEV/EV becoming cost-effective until they get this chemistry nailed.

See an ANL study here: Cost of lithium for Electric Vehicles

Regarding the lithium presence in a battery, it varies according to the chemical composition. Find out the exact anode, cathode and electrolyte as Li will be present in all three. Find out the Li % in each and you get the amount of Li in the battery for that chemistry combination.

Sorry if this post comes as a pitch for a particular company. I do not work for any of these companies or promote their products. But as an analyst, I just wanted to clarify on what I know from talking to some of these guys in the industry.

The ANL study is quite old - the data in it is 10 years old, which is an eternity in this business. Here are some thoughts on battery cost:

A recent study Carnegie Mellon University argued that "plug-in" hybrid-electric vehicles, like the Chevy Volt, are too expensive. Are they right?

No. They assumed that the battery would cost $16,000 (or 1,000/KWH). As GM says, that's way too high. (Oddly, they also conclude that a plug-in with a 10 mile range would be better, because drivers would stop and charge every 10 miles!)

Similarly, $10,000 for the Volt's battery has been widely reported in the media, but we shouldn't rely on mass media! Really, no one knows how much the batteries cost. The $10K figure is purely speculation. Here's an example, in the CS Monitor. We see that it doesn't say $10K. Here's what the article says: "the race isn't over making a Chevy Volt battery designed to run 40 miles on a single charge that could (emphasis added) cost as much as $10,000." We can see that the reporter doesn't have a firm source for this cost figure.

Elsewhere, the article says: "Still others say that the cost of new battery power for PHEVs may drop faster and already be lower than what has been widely reported at perhaps $500 per kilowatt-hour or even less, says Suba Arunkumar, analyst for market researcher Frost & Sullivan.

"I do expect the price will come down to perhaps as low as $200 per kilowatt-hour when mass production begins in 2010 and 2011," she says."

Tesla's cost is $400/KWH - it's very likely that GM will pay $200-$300 in volume. The batteries won't be produced in large volumes for several years. They'll use less expensive materials than 1st Gen batteries; the larger format is much less expensive; and they'll have very, very large production volumes relative to most 1st-gen li-ion. Large production volumes reduce costs very quickly.

GM is pricing the Volt high purely to capture the early-adopter premium and the federal rebate - their official justification is that they're pricing in 100% replacement of the battery under warranty, which really isn't credible. We can expect the Volt to cost less than $30K with large volume production.

Is the battery too large?

Yes, they're only using 50% of the battery - a 50% depth of discharge (DOD) is very conservative. That means they have to use a 16 KWH battery to get an effective 8 KWH's. They could be more aggressive (and probably will be in the future), but they're very sensitive to the bad publicity that early battery failures would create.

Could they use a battery that allowed a deeper DOD?

No, there aren't any batteries on the market that are more durable as measured in charge cycles. Tesla's batteries aren't expected to last more than 400 cycles, and the Volt will do 5-10x as many. In theory, the Volt could have a smaller battery. That would mean a shorter range, which would still accomodate many drivers. That might more perfectly optimize costs, but then it wouldn't feel like a big step forward. It wouldn't feel like a real EV, with generator backup - instead, it would feel like an incremental hybrid. Both GM (for PR) and buyers want a large, step forward, I think.

Edit:

LG Chem uses lithium-manganese oxide (LiMn2O4) chemistry while A123 uses lithium-iron phosphate (LiFePO4) chemistry. LiMn2O4 has a limited cycle life and operates poorly as the temperature goes higher. The energy density is getting better as they incorporate more elements into the overall setup. But it isnt yet there comparable with LiFePO4 yet.

Why is this so? Better battery management system to avoid short-circuiting.

Could you expand on this? Are you suggesting that GM could have used a less sophisticated BMS if they had gone with LiFePO4?

"The amount" [of lithium] "used by each battery isn't that great ...."

Please also consider the shear absolute numbers. Take for instance cell phones. Most cell-phones contain a tiny amount of tantalum. But making half a billion new cell phones annualy and using small amounts of tantalum in roughly yet another half a billion other handheld electronic devices annualy amounts to a significant portion of annual global production of tantalum.

If you look at the references you'll see that there's quite enough lithium for all the EVs we might need.

"The amount" [of lithium] "used by each battery isn't that great ...."

Please also consider the shear absolute numbers. Take for instance cell phones. Most cell-phones contain a tiny amount of tantalum. But making half a billion new cell phones annualy and using small amounts of tantalum in roughly yet another half a billion other handheld electronic devices annualy amounts to a significant portion of annual global production of tantalum.

Yes; "One of the greatest shortcomings of human beings is our incapacity to understand the exponential function."

Look also in this perspective at windenergy. Like with oilfields, extracting the easiest available oil first, they install windmills in the easiest available, most comfortable and/or best places first. After this comes the much more difficult places, like far offshore. Considering EV's what counts is the first year that the sell of internal combustion vehicles goes in terminal decline. More important than that all the big carmakers will produce EV's in 2011-2012 is: How many people can afford to buy an EV, above all when the economy is suffering ?

Good point on uranium. I think uranium is a "special" case: its application legitimates "extreme" efforts if necessary to concentrate the material. I don't have rule-of-thumb figures on uranium at hand, but I think one could make a kind of comparison with gold: we are willing to process roughly 200,000 tonnes of material to extract and concentrate 1 ton of gold. It's obvious that this isn't a viable option for almost all other metal elements, certainly not for many metals simultaneously.

I'm more concerned about availablity and affordability of certain metals to construct dozens of new nuclear fission reactors in a short timeframe, than about fueling them with uranium (or thorium).