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115 comments on Banking on Energy
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115 comments on Banking on Energy
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GAIA Host Collective
This is really an interesting idea.
I am trying to figure out a little more about how it might work. Presumably, each country could keep its own currency, and the value of the dollar would become less and less, as it takes more and more dollars to buy a barrel of oil. Does this make sense? Or do you envision the world economy to work differently than this?
I am also interested in the details of how this might work, particularly on an intercontinental basis. Suppose at a future point the US has been fully able to capture its wind and solar resources, and has a surplus of energy, but it's all electricity. In such circumstances, the US would presumably issue notes that can be redeemed for electricity. But because of North America's relative isolation, it would seem to be very difficult to conduct trade with the rest of the world because no one outside of North America could redeem the notes for the actual energy. Say China were holding a few peta-joules worth of US electricity notes --how do they get actual energy for them? Any sequence of "currency" exchanges -- eg, US electricity notes for Qatar natural gas notes -- must end with the US notes in the hands of someone who can collect on them, yes?
As we have seen here in many discussions, electricity is convertible into energy vectors such as hydrogen, hydrocarbons or ammonia. The US could simply convert and sell these.
The clearing of energy obligations will be a function of a decentralised energy clearing union - a network of networks. I do not envisage a centralised clearing house or issuer, which IMHO constitutes a single point of failure, and is in any case probably politically infeasible for any number of reasons.
Besides, China would not wish be capable of redeeming its Units other than for current consumption and would prefer to hold them in reserve for use in exchange for something else she needs.
That is, after all, what a reserve currency is all about?
Chris Cook -
I assume this term 'energy vector' that you use is just a fancy way of saying 'energy form'. (Strictly speaking energy is usually not a vector quantity as it generally has no directional component, as least in the way it is being used in these discussions.)
In my view, the analogy of energy as currency can only be taken so far. On any given day you can convert your dollars to yen and then back again within losing more than a relatively trivial amount in fees. However, energy conversions are far more dissipative, often resulting in well over 50% of the initial energy input being lost. For example, if you go from electricity to hydrogen and then back to electricity again, you will probably loss well over 70% of the initial energy input required to produce the electricity in the first place. Keep doing conversions like that, and you will have next to no energy left.
For this reason, one does not 'simply' convert electricity into a transportable fuels such as hydrogen, hydrocarbons, and ammonia, as none of the conversion processes are simple and each entails huge losses of energy. I recognize that it is often worthwhile to suffer such losses to improve the 'form value' of the energy (that's why we have electrically powered hair dryers rather that coal-fired hair dryers), but that is another matter entirely.
Thus, the conversion of electricity into transportation fuels must be viewed more in terms of a business venture rather than something that can happen automatically just to get your energy into the right 'currency' so it can be traded globally.
Having said all this, I fundamentally agree that our currency badly needs to revert back to a type based more on something real. What that should be, I am not smart enough to say. However, it seems to me that one based solely on energy is highly problematic.
Energy as currency is in pervasive use albeit not in standardised forms (outside futures exchanges). It is bought and sold domestically and internationally all day long, generally in terms of oil and oil products bought and sold for dollars.
Note that the key point I am making relates to the use of Energy as a Unit of Measure or Value Standard - against which goods, services, fiat currencies, and new (Currency) units redeemable in energy use value, or land use value may be exchanged.
My proposal deconstructs and separates what are seen to be two of the functions of Money.
Chris Cook -
The fact that energy (mainly in the form of fossil fuels) is probably the world's largest single item of commerce does not automatically make energy a currency. The fossil fuels are physical entities that are bought and sold through the use of various currencies. I don't think there are too many transactions in which one party directly exchanges X barrels of oil for Y megawatt-hours of electricity.
Perhaps I am getting too hung up on the problems of physical energy conversion and not focusing on your main idea that a unit of such currency should be worth a specific amount of energy. But I still have lots of questions.
For example, let us say that I am in possession of something called a One Million BTU note. Does this mean that I can literally redeem that note and receive in some form one million actual BTUs of energy? If not, then what does the One Million BTUs printed on the face of the note really mean?
How and by whom is it decided how many of these One Million BTU notes (or electronic equivalent) get put into circulation? Is the total amount in circulation supposed to be equal to total yearly global energy production, only global oil and gas production, or would it be in terms of estimated reserves rather than production rates? Can't you still have inflation if more face-value BTUs are printed than physically exists? Will the Federal Reserve still be able to make BTUs magically come in and out of existence like it does with dollars?
How does stranded energy come into the picture? Say there is a large solar energy production facility in the Australian outback that only serves one remote portion of Australia. How does that captive and highly isolated energy production enter the global energy currency scheme of things, as it cannot be physically traded with any outside party?Does it still count in some way? Or doesn't it matter?
When oil production drops in the future, what happens to this energy-based currency? Does my One Million BTU note become more valuable because the physical entity backing it up has become more scarce? Or something else?
If the currency is being pegged to say BTUs, are those BTUs in the form of fuel before it is burned or say BTU equivalent in the form or electricity produced by a power plant? How do you avoid double accounting? For example you can have one BTU of coal going into a power plant and 0.4 BTUs of electricity coming out of the power plant. If you count both coal production and electricity production, you will come up with 1.4 BTUs, which is impossible, as you only started out with one BTU.
The devil will be in the details.
The devil is in the detail, indeed, and I certainly don't have all the answers!
What it means is that if you consume One Million BTU's you can pay for what you consumed with anything acceptable to the seller, which may be fiat money, fish, or whatever. But he will be obliged - through his and your membership of the Energy Clearing Union - to accept your note if you present it for redemption against BTU's consumed.
Note here the important distinction from a conventional - dated - debt or futures contract when you can mandate that he performs the contract and delivers money or product to you as the case may be. Redeemable Units make security of payment independent of security of supply.
In a stranded wind situation, Units redeemable in electricity would only be redeemable locally within reach of a private wire.
But Units redeemable in (say) ammonia could be issued and redeemed more widely if the stranded wind is used to fix ammonia - albeit there is an energy loss.
Note that while there is pricing, there is no "pegging" going on here.
So if gas is burnt in a CHP plant there will be the possibility of Units being issued in relation to future production of electricity and also in future production of hot air/hot water. Both may be monetised.
In the partnership structure I envisage, the gas supplier is tied in to a "community energy partnership" (an arguably optimal form of ESCO) as a supplier member, and may share proportionally with the "Operator" member in the revenues from sale of heat and electricity to "Consumer" members.
Using a "Heat Pool" model it is possible to finance retrofitting of (for example) CHP in a new way through an energy loan repayable through a "Heat Charge" to the pool by way of repayment of a loan denominated in BTUs.
As with any monetary system, there will need to be a monetary discipline over Unit issue, both in terms of transparency (who has issued what Units and what the open balances are) and provisions made into a default pool in case of default. This is where service-providers-formerly-known-as-banks could come in, with assistance from experts in the relevant field of energy production.
As carbon energy declines in availability then those holding Units would on the face of it have something more valuable, provided of course that they didn't wait too long to redeem them.
The fact that a charge/provision is made in relation to both positive and negative energy balances, would tend to concentrate a hoarder's mind, though......
Chris Cook -
Thanks for the clarification.
I now think that such a system, at least in theory, could be made to work. The further we get away from a debt-based fiat monetary system, the better, as such can only be viable in an ever-expanding economy, which may soon become a thing of the past.
For this system to work, strong and severe controls would need to be implemented to prevent Wall Street types from gaming the system, like they have done to our current one. As you say: discipline is key. And therein lies the rub, doesn't it?
Sticks and carrots are needed.
In a true partnership, interests are aligned, even though expectations may nevertheless prove irreconcilable, or partners may prove just plain incompetent.
Sticks and carrots; the matter of 'reserve' and 'currency' is not clarified.
A reserve regime balances capital flows between countries which use different currencies. This is done mostly by dollar- denominated swaps.
A currency is a national tender unit. Swiss Franc, British Pound, Japanese Yen. The Euro is a currency- like substance that lacks a lender of last resort. It is an agreement in principle and convenience created for political reasons. It would be very difficult to make the Euro into a hard currency like the 'Silver Certificate' US dollar. In the 'Good Ol' days' there were hundreds of American currencies; most banks offered their own paper monies - banknotes - lent against deposits. Legal tender laws made the US Treasury dollar the sole currency of the US.
A reserve regime does not need a new currency. An end to over- the- counter interbank currency and interest rate swaps would reduce volatility and tendency toward 'credit lockups'. Moving to exchange trading would accomplish this. Going further, taxing these derivatives out of existence would gain the Treasury some cash and remove the derivative overhang that threatens to unbalance capital flows (and umbalances them by inference currently).
That is, after all, what a reserve currency is all about?
Certainly a reserve currency shouldn't play favorites. The status of the dollar as a reserve currency works in favor of the US, inasmuch as they can "print" reserves for their own use. I understand the monetary arguments that are made in favor of using gold as a reserve currency, but most of those boil down to "countries can't just 'make' it, they have to 'earn' it through production of goods and services." Gold served fairly well as a reserve currency but not without some problems. IIRC, major gold strikes -- the conquistadors reaching South America, the gold rushes in California and Alaska -- were all accompanied by bouts of global inflation. And periods when new technology allowed production of other goods to increase much faster than the gold supply seem to have resulted in crashes of one sort or another. In addition, other uses for gold don't destroy it -- most of the gold shipped back by the conquistadors is still in "circulation" as bullion or jewelry or electrical contacts today. I would like to hear more arguments for and against a reserve currency "backed" by something whose other uses effectively destroy it. Not in a thermodynamic sense, of course, but in a practical one.
As we have seen here in many discussions, electricity is convertible into energy vectors such as hydrogen, hydrocarbons or ammonia. The US could simply convert and sell these... Besides, China would not wish be capable of redeeming its Units [based on electricity other than for current consumption and would prefer to hold them in reserve for use in exchange for something else she needs.
China is, in fact, in rather desperate need of electricity; Three Gorges, doubled coal production, and 30+ nuclear reactors planned or under construction are clear evidence of that. Electricity in North America is convertible to forms that could be transported to China, but at fairly miserable efficiencies. And turned back into electricity there, but again at fairly miserable efficiencies (eg, 60% for a combined cycle gas-fired plant).
It is fairly easy to argue that in developed countries, with one large exception (transportation using current technology) and a few small ones, most of the value of the heat-content of fuels, measured by the value of goods and services produced from it, is delivered through the electricity that the fuel can generate. And as is often pointed out here, much of the transportation could be electrified. This would seem to imply that kilowatt-hours are a more natural basis for the reserve, and would play no favorites between natural gas or hydro or solar or uranium. Could your proposal work if the resource "backing" the reserve currency were megawatt-hours generated?
As an engineer, I like the idea of an energy-backed currency because energy translates to "the ability to do stuff" in layman's terms, and as such it becomes a useful unit of trade in pricing goods and services. We would just have to make the money supply to grow and shrink in direct proportion to the amount of available energy. More energy means more money, but it's tied to real wealth in energy and not paper wealth which is subject to bubbles and manipulation. The real challenge is designing a clearing market that efficiently matches money supply to energy supply. If the currency inflated or deflated relative to actual energy supply, that would obviously be a problem. I don't know enough about finance and economics to figure this part out. Fractional reserve lending will inflate the currency out of control of the energy clearing market, unless central banks link interest rates to money supply.
I've thought of how to design currency backed purely by grid electricity. You could link a MW-h note to electricity deliverable on a major grid backbone with exchange rates for the remoteness of the supply and demand. I don't know how that would work internationally.
This is not straightforward to grok, because there is a genuine paradigm shift involved.
The "Energy Standard" - call it a "Petro" - I propose is just a unit of measure for value (as a metre is a unit of measure for length). It could be the amount of energy the average Joe is capable of producing in an hour, or the amount given off in the decay of x grammes of isotope y or whatever.
But IMHO a Standard - in order to be generally accepted and hence be worthy of the name - must be an amount that actually means something to people - so that they can relate to it, and use it as a reference point in exchange transactions.
I propose the energy produced from the combustion of 1 litre of n-Octane at 20 degrees C.
The International Carbon Unit
It's a definition I've lifted from Nick Bell except that the volume used is different, and Nick is referring to the monetisation by fiat of intrinsically worthless carbon emissions, whereas I am proposing the monetisation of the intrinsically valuable energy in carbon.....
What I am getting to is that we are used to the monetisation of IOU's issued by credit institutions, and do not understand the true relationship between credit (ie time to pay) and the circulation of "money's worth" such as goods and services, energy use value, and the use value of land.
I have recently made two major presentations in Iran. The first, last October, introduced the concept of the PetroTrust in the context of direct investment in energy production through the simple expedient of creating Units redeemable in energy use value.
The second in January was to a purely domestic - but extremely high-level - audience, and covered both credit and investment
Introducing the Petro
This presentation aims to show how Units of "Currency" - eg a Unit redeemable in a litre of gasoline - might circulate within what I call a "Credit Clearing Union". I take as an example of such a Union the Swiss WIR Bank where since 1934 Swiss businesses have extended credit to each other and settled debit balances with goods and services rather than with fiat Swiss Francs.
The point is that the WIR Bank
In other words Swiss businesses using the WIR are essentially exchanging "money's worth" of goods and services, but it could equally be energy or land use value) not in exchange for Swiss francs as a fiat IOU object (Currency), but by reference to the Swiss franc as a unit of measure (Value Standard).
We don't realise this, but wherever a barter system incorporates credit or "time to pay" the result actually is a monetary system. It takes a bit of getting your head around.
Returning to your point, electricity, and carbon-based compounds such as natural gas, gasoline, fuel oil, heating oil, all have a use over time, and a fixed value by reference to the "Petro" value standard.
Producers of any of these are all in a position to issue Units redeemable in their production, and they will tend to have a fixed price against the Petro for use as fuel. It is of course the case that other uses might have a greater value than fuel use (eg as a petrochem feedstock) and that would be reflected in the price.
There are too many variations in oil and oil products - and too many vested interests - to even contemplate global implementation in those markets, but I believe that the unitisation of natural gas, and the creation of a new global market in gas is capable of forming a basis for the International Energy Clearing Union I envisage.
The beauty of "unitising" renewable "MegaWatts" and energy efficiency energy saving "NegaWatts" is that we may exchange for value now something that costs us nothing to redeem in the future. eg interest-free loans (in dollar terms) but denominated in energy; used for (say) retrofitting CHP and then repaid out of the energy savings.
It's not Rocket Science.
What an "Energy Standard" gives rise to is what the technocrats (Hubbert was one such) refer to as "Energy Accounting" and I believe that it is the only way in which the necessary transition to renewables may be financed.
Finally, note that while the energy standard may be generic - energy as currency has the ability to be transmitted across borders via electricity or through vectors such as hydrocarbon-based fuels, ammonia or even water (if you think about it) - the majority of value which circulates in economies is actually based upon the use value of land.
In summary, in a "Credit Clearing Union" Units (Currency) of Money's Worth will circulate by reference to a Value Standard (Unit of measure) within a framework of trust (Guarantee Society) which is backed by payments made by both seller and buyer in respect of a mutual guarantee of performance.
Nationally redeemable currency units based upon location rental value are, as they say, another story, and one I covered in Dublin
Equity Shares: a Solution to the Credit Crash
when I gave last year's FEASTA annual lecture.
"The "Energy Standard" - call it a "Petro" - I propose is just a unit of measure for value (as a metre is a unit of measure for length). It could be the amount of energy the average Joe is capable of producing in an hour, or the amount given off in the decay of x grammes of isotope y or whatever."
So are you saying that all Countries peg their currency to this unit?
So the currency of little brown people will be of the same value as the currency of big,white, blue eyed people, (to steal from Lula)?
This sounds too fair and equatible to ever catch on.
Thanks again for all your work and I for one am going to go over this carefully and push it at every opportunity.
Cheers
Indeed not.
They will transact internationally by reference to this Unit, and if they have an energy shortfall (energy debit balance) in international trade then a global "Energy Pool" could be used to invest in energy savings and renewable energy production until their energy balance is in equilibrium.
Their own currencies could be based upon the other value created and circulating domestically, and for the most part this comes from the use value of land, and from the inherent ingenuity, skills, experience and sheer hard work of their population.
Units redeemable in land rental value essentially have exchange control built in, and while they may be acceptable outside the country of issue, they would only be redeemable in te country of issue. So all countries issuing land-based money would get to keep their own "seigniorage". The current position is that the US benefits disproportionally from dollar hegemony.
The idea of a land-backed currency was first detailed by John Lawin 1705, but he did rather b...er up the implementation in France in 1719, and the Mississippi Bubble (and, some say, the Louisiana Purchase) were the result....
Thank you for the interesting post. You have clearly done a lot of work on this, well beyond what you have provided.
Convertibility between energy and water came to my mind as well. So you would have a store of value redeemable in energy credits, with a nexus back to productive land and access to water. I'm trying to build a flow diagram in my head to better understand this. As you say, it's a paradigm buster for those not used to thinking in these terms.
You don't have to physically store reserves of energy to back your currency. Clearing markets could inflate and deflate the money supply in proportion to the energy supply and set exchange rates for delivering energy to specific locations.