In the US, however, we have a lot of waste. Our trade deficit is so large b/c we are using more things than we produced. So when the oil price got too high, we have to cut it down and down.

This was my thought looking at the above. Of course a price spike hurts us more: because we use more oil.

Fortunately we waste it on really stupid things. Like SUVs. I wonder what the effects of peak oil in the US would be if we banned commuter automobiles and required everyone to use 150/200 mpg electric or motor assisted bicycles at speeds of 10-15 mph... and only freight could use big rigs could use the interstate until more rail came online. The effects would be HUGE. First, the car companies would fail, and we'd go into Depression. Then we would all rearrange cities. Then things would get better. Likely this will happen anyway, just slowly and painfully if the markets have to do it.

So yeah, we waste A LOT by being inefficient... not on a thermodynamics level, but on a stupidly designed society that thinks to transport a single person to work, it must be done with 2 tons of dead weight across a 40 mile commute at insane and deadly speeds.

It is often said on TOD that oil consumption has followed economic growth prefectly. But correlation does not equal causation, and yesterday is no proof of what tomorrow will bring. I think that negawatts are underestimated. I would guess that we spend at least 90% (based on commuter waste and oversuse of A/Cs, etc) of our available BTUs on things that don't increase GDP efficiently.

This has only been possible b/c of cheap oil. When it is gone we will have to adjust our use of it, so we will. And then we will escape the "oil price trap"... which is not a real limit on EROEI of extraction, but a limit based on (I think) negative EROEI when you consider the inefficient end use.