The Oil Drum

12 comments on Sunday open thread

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Charles Mackay on September 18, 2005 - 11:08am

Tropical Depression 18, expected to become Hurricane Rita in about 36 hours, may reach Category 2 strength in 3 or 4 days. It may become a threat to oil/gas production across the entire Gulf of Mexico - as it appears to have a path that will run from the Florida keys to the southern coast of Texas.

Expect GOM production to be shut in again in just another day or so, with repair crews leaving unfinished the damage left by Katrina.

If Rita goes anywhere near New Orleans, I expect that area to be evacuated again fairly quickly - due to very few usable roadways remaining to get people out.

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/144728W_sm.gif

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The Interloafer on September 18, 2005 - 7:54pm

For an interesting thread on the changing forecasts for this strenghtening storm, visit Hurricane Rita May Shut in GOM Again over at PeakOil.com.

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Dave Cohen on September 18, 2005 - 8:48pm

Re: Hurricane Rita

There are two dangerous aspects to this storm.

It may not follow its expected trajectory due west but may turn northward (to the northwest)
High sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf may strengthen the storm as it passes -- this happened with Katrina

Let's hope neither of these things happen.

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Nate Hagens on September 18, 2005 - 11:17pm

Just musing, but if the weather weenies are correct and future conditions (due to global warming, human or otherwise) favor more numerous and stronger hurricanes into Gulf of Mexico, wouldnt that be a nasty scenario for US/World energy/social situation?

What if Rita, which I expect the mainstream media to get wind of Monday, blows into Corpus Christi as some are saying, as a CAT4?

www.easternuswx.com

The GOM shut in production would increase sizeably - I expect that is why oil futures are up in night session. But, more broadly, is this an externality that the world will have to deal with? warmer weather hurricanes disrupting our energy buffet? One bad one does not a trend make,but stay tuned...

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mw on September 19, 2005 - 9:26am

I recall reading about a Department of Defense look at global warming from a security perspective. Dated now.

Love the web.. here's the links:

Summary: http://www.ems.org/climate/exec_pentagon_climatechange.pdf
Full report: http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf

This Defense Department study, obtained by the media in February 2004, looked at the impact of abrupt climate change on national security. Abrupt climate change is a worst-case scenario, which scientists consider a plausible, though uncertain, consequence of global warming. It draws heavily from a National Academy of Sciences report published in 2002 which said the likelihood of crossing a threshold that triggers abrupt climate change grows when the climate is pushed hardest by rapid loading of the atmosphere with heat-trapping pollution.
The authors of the report ordered by the Pentagon say that such a scenario could lead to global food and water shortages that would drive widespread migrations and border conflicts worldwide. While scientists believe this extreme scenario has a low probability, the serious economic, health, and environmental effects expected from mainstream mid-range global warming forecasts are much more certain and fully support prompt action to cut heat-trapping emissions. The very high consequences that would result from the scenarios reported to the Pentagon reinforce the importance of action now to reduce these emissions.