<Drumbeat: April 13, 2009 The Oil Drum Three Energy Stories to Watch>

20 comments on The 2009 EIA Energy Conference: Day 1

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Gail the Actuary on April 13, 2009 - 10:55am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

With respect to Meeting the Growing Demand for Liquids panel that I also attended with Robert, once got the impression that three out of the four panelists were oil production optimists ( Glen Sweetnam of the EIA; David Knapp of Oil Market Intelligence, but formerly of IEA and I believe EIA; and Eduardo Gonzalez of PEMEX). The only one questioning the high forecast amounts was Fareed Mohamadi of PFC Energy, who did not see production rising to 119 million barrels a day.

One comment made both by Fareed and Gonzalez was that in the future, they expected to see more pairing of IOCs with NOC, because the IOCs have more money to do projects, and because of the difficulty NOCs are having doing some of the new projects on their own.

Robert commented on the future high oil production projections from PEMEX. I happened to sit next to someone from PEMEX on the airplane going back home after the conference. He explained that the amounts shown in the slides were the "official projections" for showing to outside sources. It sounded to me as though there was a different set of numbers used internally.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
westexas on April 13, 2009 - 1:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The EIA has their 2008 net export numbers out (subject to revision). They showed 1.07 mpbd in net exports from Mexico in 2008 (my estimate based on Pemex data was 1.0 mbpd), down from 1.9 mbpd in 2004.

It will be fascinating to see how the next four years play out regarding domestic consumption. Using Mexico's current production decline rate of about -10%/year, they would have to cut their consumption in half over the next four to five years if they wanted to maintain current net oil exports.

The EIA shows our three closest major sources of imported oil--Venezuela, Mexico & Canada--declining from 5.3 mbpd in combined net exports in 1998 to 4.0 mbpd in 2008, an overall decline rate of -2.8%/year. The 2008 decline rate was -9.5%/year, and net exports from all three countries fell in 2008. Extrapolating their recent three year volumetric decline rate would put them collectively at around zero net oil exports in about 17 years.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

20 comments on The 2009 EIA Energy Conference: Day 1

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version