cheers termoil, phil and gav have commented on the first version and i have been slowly revising the picture and writeup to submit to them for a full post.
i have included a national conflict as a result, but not really an effect. i am missing bad government policy as an effect on economic collapse and stagflation (oil and bad policy being only elements that can cause it). goverment miliary policy/action could be an effect on national exports as a reduction in oil supply, and run countries towards option 1 of economic collapse as it shifts budgets for all involved nations creating deficit and poor investments on green tech, and possible reallocation of oil reservses.

military action would cause heavy quantitive easing, a run on protectionism, huge deficit, manfacturing collapse if it involves china tension to the usa. it could cause trade collapse through shipping lanes halted.

the emerging markets element i consider as the increasing consumption and the securing of oil fields/contracts etc as china is currently while demand sleeps. this would jump as miliary tensions escalate and shots are fired.

its possible that the arctic collapse could beat the next oil shock, which could spin europe on its head. which would have crop failures and complete oil dependance. but doesnt change much in the theme of the oil shock?

cheers for the feedback.