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17 comments on The 2009 EIA Energy Conference: Day 2
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17 comments on The 2009 EIA Energy Conference: Day 2
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Agreed with aangel. Robert, from your discussion above, I got the distinct impression that your position is that of a committed doubter on climate change. Clarity and simplicity are good things.
I got the distinct impression that your position is that of a committed doubter on climate change.
Others have read it exactly the opposite way, which is the way it should be read. I accept scientific consensus unless I have a particular expertise in an area that would cause me to doubt the consensus. Here, that is not the case. And as I pointed out to people on my blog, I really don't have enough time to delve deeply into this to even have a really informed debate on the topic. So, I apply the same standard I have for other areas, such as the germ theory of disease: What is the scientific consensus?
Robert, As a published (albeit never paid) scientist myself, I wish I shared your confidence in scientific "consensus". I've seen too many cases where it is the exact opposite of the factual truth, not just Lysenkoism but also for instance the myth of a disease called AIDS being caused by a supposed virus called HIV, not to mention the trotting out of the hollow dogmas that autism is still an unexplained mystery and has not really increased tenfold.
I do strongly agree with your choice of fence-sitting on questions you have not studied in depth. I don't think the AGW controversy need be one of them though, as it looks to me to fall into a category of what I call pseudocontroversy (p32 of my book http://www.lulu.com/content/140930). To become sufficiently expert you don't need to get a doctorate in climateology; you need merely to examine the assertions of the doubters, and then check whether they hold water. For instance the argument that there's been cooling in the last few years.
Indeed there is little merit in anyone just saying "Yes I'm yet another authority figure agreeing with x". But read up the not very complexities of this important pseudocontroversy, and then you can answer inquiries by saying you have yet to see a credible case against AGW presented anywhere.
"Robin Clarke is one of those rare souls"--
--Bernard Rimland re http://cogprints.org/5207
I've seen too many cases where it is the exact opposite of the factual truth,
While there are certainly cases - and they get a lot of publicity - what percentage of the total do you think this amounts to? Personally, I think that the scientific consensus is correct in the overwhelming majority of cases, but there are certainly famous cases (the cause of ulcers is my favorite) that might lead one to believe that the scientific consensus is often wrong. Flip through a chemistry or physics textbook and look for case studies. You will find that they are rare.
You could be generally right about physics and chemistry (though my expertise to comment thereon stops at A-level). It's fields of more immediate practical/political/commercial/emotional importance that seem to be more associated with pseudo-scientific consensuses. Especially a lot of medicine. Lysenkoism is another case in point (and could overhyped permaculture become a new Lysenkoism?).
Denial of Climate Catastrophe falls well into the concept of clashing with strong status-quo interests. Another factor in false consensus is self-servingness of professional researchers. One way this manifests is refusal to acknowledge the solution of a problem (e.g. that most autism is now easily curable, or my explanation of what it is), as that puts all the researchers out of their jobs. Another way it manifests is as a new pseudo-paradigm in bogus justification of a huge new rich seam of employment for researchers. Two instances are the aforementioned AIDS/HIV hoax, and the beta-amyloid-based search for a cure for Alzheimers (AD). This flies in the face of the fact that the amyloid plaques are far less correlated with dementia than are the tau tangles, just if you bogusly define AD in terms of amyloid, then like wow all your research will correlate with it. This enormous pseudo-research enterprise also flies in the face of another of my studiously-ignored explanations, of why dementia cannot be cured (except by bolting on extra memory modules) www.zazz.fsnet.co.uk/ad.htm
In addition to the instances mentioned in my reply just above, the case of twice-Nobel-Prizewinner Linus Pauling deserves a mention. On the web you can find his review of evidence of vitamin C preventing or curing the common cold. Even though it is the work of the Nobel author of much of the modern chemistry textbook, it can easily be understood by anyone of teenager-level science. Its conclusion is far from fence-sitting. And yet you can rest assured that the professional "scientific consensus" is that this great genius somehow became a crackpot nutter in respect of this and ditto his great book about vit C curing cancer. Billion-dollar industries do not like uncorruptable geniuses pointing out how to bypass their profits with cheapo natural products. The "scientific consensus" is almost always the funded "scientific consensus".
Educate yourself.
A friend's wife is doing basic research aimed at finding a vaccine for HIV. To suggest that she's either too ignorant to know what she's doing or is involved in a massive and lethal fraud is highly insulting and deeply ignorant.
Perhaps that's why she's a paid scientist and you're not; she's willing to put evidence before opinion.