135 comments on Limits to Growth Model Worth Another Look
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135 comments on Limits to Growth Model Worth Another Look
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The graph is very revealing. I can certainly understand the drop in resources and the expected (but not absolutely certain) drop in Industrial Output that would accompany it (recycling is a largely untapped source of many resources for example). However, I have trouble believing that pollution would accelerate so dramatically even in the face of rapidly declining industrial output and energy (and initially at least in the face of declining population). The demographic transition is well underway in all industrialized societies (that is the reason for the drop in the birthrate, even in India). A rapid drop in birthrate means a rapid aging of the population (unless the death rate accelerates and that has not yet happened). Take a look at Europe and Japan for examples of this (dramatic drop in school age population for example). Rapidly aging populations change their resource utilization and pollution emission patterns. For example, even now, I as a middle-aged person have dropped my resource utilization and the majority of the resources I use are directed at my children. As they leave the home, my resource utilization will drop by at least another factor of 2 (probably more like 5 times). Retired people usually use much less resources than young people starting families. I do not know if the authors have taken this into account, but pollution intensity should probably drop as well (as least I would think).
What do you think?
Iwylie
The pollution issue is one that the model does not seem to be matching as well on.
The pollution issue is not yet clear, but the model may turn out to be more accurate than we expect. Some considerations that come to mind:
1. In recent years, pollution has shifted from the developed countries to the lesser developed countries, where we see the pollution less, but it probably affects more people.
2. As we have less resources in the future, pollution control may be one of the first things to go. There seem to be fairly abundant coal resources, especially if the lowest grade ores are considered. These are very cheap to burn, especially if one does absolutely no pollution control. Burning of wood and of dung as fuel also has pollution issues.
3. Cumulative pollution is probably as important as point in time pollution. If our lakes are filled with mercury and cannot be used to support fishing, it doesn't matter whether that pollution happened last week or fifty years ago.
Not to shake the hornet's nest, but CO2 and other GHG are pollution.
As the capacity of natural systems to absorb industrial excesses declines, pollution will become more visible. E.g., oceanic dead zones, acidification, and coral bleaching. Then add indirect effects like increasing methane release from melting tundra.
-- Philip B. / Washington, DC
For ecosystems, as for individual life forms, there are many things that are essential but are toxic in sufficient quantity (e.g. water, oxygen). The issue is the dose. Pollution is set in the public mind as referring to stuff that has no positive value at any dose.
Pollution has been dramatically reduced since the environmental movement in the 1960-1970’s.
Some highlights:
*Limits to discharge to both air and water of heavy metals, BOD and other harmful chemicals by industry
*Reduction in acid rain from using lower sulfur coal plus scrubbers
*Banning or restricting persistent pesticides like DDT and chloradane
*Secondary and tertiary treatment of municipal sewage by aeration and chlorination
I worked in industry throughout this period and saw the change first hand. I also recall the days when smog from the steel mills in Birmingham, AL, USA and the industrial Midwest darkened the skies for sometimes over 100 miles away as I witnessed driving on heavy pollution days when I seemed to stay in the haze for hours. The improvement since those days is amazing.
My main criticism is that we throw away nutrients in sewage. If we do not recycle all phosphorous the world will be unable to support anything like the current population in less than 100 years.
How about the chemical cocktail of pharmaceuticals that we routinely discard into our water supply?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/03/science/earth/03water.html?_r=1
PBS's Frontline just did a program on
Poisoned Waters
Agreed that we made a lot of improvements but there are still many things left to be done. The top of the issue is our selfishness. We think we own nature (land, water, resource, etc...) but it shouldn't be so. Everyone should be a steward to the land that they live upon -- which should bring some attitude of responsibility -- not the exploitive ones that we currently have.
Thanks Dinh Ton,
I watched most of it and what struck me was how little we actually know.
What we do know is that to clean up this mess (if it can be cleaned up at all) will be extremely costly. Being that we are already in a global depression the necessary resources and the will and knowledge to smoothly transition from BAU to a new paradigm is probably be lacking.
I wish I could find reasons to be more optimistic but things are not looking good for humanity's future.
If its 20 years or so before that pod of Orcas in Puget Sound dies off, I figure that's about what we have before TSHTF for us as well.
Yes, the US has done a great job cleaning things up. The rest of the world is in some trouble however.
Here are a few links on how the Chinese may be close to economic peak once health and environmental negatives are taken into account. I think, long term, they will regret not having an environmental movement. They created the worlds goods, but received low wages and all the pollution for their trouble.
Pollution may cancel out China's Economic Growth (NPR)
Will China Choke on it's success?
Google for many more : china pollution health negative gdp
Tragedy of the commons. Very hard to solve.
...in the developed countries. Clearly pollution in developing countries has increased massively over this period likely wiping out gains made in the 70's.
Since we are using a lot of products made in the developing countries, indirectly we are responsible for a lot of pollution there. The way we have been consuming resources; we definitely are giving ourselves too much credit.
Pollution has been dramatically reduced since the environmental movement in the 1960-1970’s.
With some notable exceptions: ‘Toxic soup of pesticides’ killing West Coast salmon
That's not at all obvious. Consider what it means to have and spend a pension fund or savings. Or to go into the hospital. That's all paid for by ongoing industrial output, because that's all the money spent is, a claim on future production.
Look at the bills in your state legislature right now. We're at limits; all sorts of environmental restrictions are being waived as "too expensive". And as far as a model is concerned, increased pollution could easily cause industrial and population drop-off; a round or two of SimCity will make that point clear.
cfm in Gray, ME
Hmmm -- not so sure.
The thing is when you "retired" you become a tax on the working society. A certain part of the net energy gain has to be spent on sustaining that populace -- health care products and services are the most obvious. The cost of raising a child from 0-17 is about $100K in the US (if you take out the housing cost). The life expectancy of people managed reaching retirement age is about "age+15". If the government is giving out 12K/year for Social Security -- that alone is $180K -- not counting other retirement vehicles and medical liabilities. People might argue that they paid for it during their working years -- but looking at our current accounting of debt and obligations, there is a huge mismatch somewhere, both past and present.
Young people starting a family sure cost resource. However, creating a child becomes a drag on resource because of the world we built it -- not because of "creating a child". Once human learn to live within the mean provided by nature, human will be okie. The birth of a child will be similar to a birth of a whale or a bird -- no real net of cost of anything.
I would suggest you read Sharon Astyk's site. Great post about this thing. She has great thoughts on the subject.
iwylie wrote: "The demographic transition is well underway in all industrialized societies (that is the reason for the drop in the birthrate, even in India)."
Permit me to be provocative: "the demographic transition" is a myth, or at least the reasons cited for it.
Most often, people say women's increasing levels of education produce a drop in fecundity. But I have come to believe that it is increasing levels of energy consumption that cause the demographic transition, not women's education, literacy, or anything else non-energy related.
This begs the question: what happens if (when!) it is no longer possible to increase energy consumption in developing countries? I would submit that what will happen — and what shows up in the World3 output — is that the birth rate will go up when exosomatic energy availability goes down.
Think of it this way: it is not education that improves anyone's lives enough for them to not breed slave labour. Put a PhD a mile from clean water, and that PhD will either have to consume energy to access that water, or walk to the water and back herself, or have someone else do it for her. If she doesn't have the money (energy) to pay someone else to fetch water, the simplest way to get the water is to send your kids for it. And if you don't have kids, you can easily make them. Or if your kids are all busy growing food and doing other errands for you, you can add a water-fetching slave in a few short years, whether you have a PhD or if you can't even read.
Until this hundred-year energy spike, children have been the equivalent of a pension — someone to care for you when you are no longer able to care for yourself. What is going to make this any different as the energy spike dissipates?
Of course, perhaps, deus ex machina, some new source of energy will come along so that this person can get her water and her pension without breeding slaves. If Malthus could be blind-sided, perhaps I can be, as well. But the Precautionary Principle argues against betting the future of the entire human species (and the future of many thousands of other species, as well) on it.
"I have come to believe that it is increasing levels of energy consumption that cause the demographic transition, not women's education, literacy, or anything else non-energy related."
You might want to provide something quantitative that supports this idea.
The US uses much more energy, and yet has much higher fertility than Japan and Europe (about replacement). That doesn't support this idea. On the other hand, I believe there's a pretty good correlation between women's freedom and lower fertility. You might want to look at the literature.
"Of course, perhaps, deus ex machina, some new source of energy will come along "
It's already here: wind, solar, nuclear. High EROEI, reasonable cost, essentially unlimited resources (even nuclear).
Bytesmiths
"Most often, people say women's increasing levels of education produce a drop in fecundity. But I have come to believe that it is increasing levels of energy consumption that cause the demographic transition, not women's education, literacy, or anything else non-energy related."
I think it is probably simpler than this. It is just human nature to want what we haven't got. If your great opportunity to have some prosperity rather than poverty is to pursue education and have less children you will pursue this. If you live in a wealthy economy and are materially successful you may want to fight the emptiness by reconnecting with family and tribe through the joy of children.
We want to skip the old mistakes of our heritage which is a positive thing. I suppose what this means for an energy constrained future is limiting the number of our children to improve their chances of survival.