Retired people usually use much less resources than young people starting families.

That's not at all obvious. Consider what it means to have and spend a pension fund or savings. Or to go into the hospital. That's all paid for by ongoing industrial output, because that's all the money spent is, a claim on future production.

I have trouble believing that pollution would accelerate so dramatically even in the face of rapidly declining industrial output and energy

Look at the bills in your state legislature right now. We're at limits; all sorts of environmental restrictions are being waived as "too expensive". And as far as a model is concerned, increased pollution could easily cause industrial and population drop-off; a round or two of SimCity will make that point clear.

cfm in Gray, ME

Retired people usually use much less resources than young people starting families.

Hmmm -- not so sure.
The thing is when you "retired" you become a tax on the working society. A certain part of the net energy gain has to be spent on sustaining that populace -- health care products and services are the most obvious. The cost of raising a child from 0-17 is about $100K in the US (if you take out the housing cost). The life expectancy of people managed reaching retirement age is about "age+15". If the government is giving out 12K/year for Social Security -- that alone is $180K -- not counting other retirement vehicles and medical liabilities. People might argue that they paid for it during their working years -- but looking at our current accounting of debt and obligations, there is a huge mismatch somewhere, both past and present.

Young people starting a family sure cost resource. However, creating a child becomes a drag on resource because of the world we built it -- not because of "creating a child". Once human learn to live within the mean provided by nature, human will be okie. The birth of a child will be similar to a birth of a whale or a bird -- no real net of cost of anything.

I would suggest you read Sharon Astyk's site. Great post about this thing. She has great thoughts on the subject.