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144 comments on Drumbeat: May 6, 2009
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144 comments on Drumbeat: May 6, 2009
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Just gone through $55 for WTI.
Where are those tankers full of 100M+ barrels oil on the oceans?
Yes, I thought there was supposed to be 'an ocean of oil' waiting to dock...
Truth is it probably represents something like 2 days supply...
Nick.
And those tankers are waiting for a few more $/barrel to make this expensive form of storage really pay for itself. It's looking like they'll probably get it.
Not judging from how low the Baltic tanker indexes have cratered. See Capital Link Shipping for charts with free registration.
Probably jokuhl. Last time I saw the numbers it was costing $1/bbl/month to keep the oil afloat. So write another $2 million check this month and maybe make an extra $6 million or more next month. Just another high stakes game of chicken.
If/when the economy turns around the price of oil will rise if demand increases - but at the moment it looks like a good bit of world production is just going into non-productive storage.
If storage gets to full capacity before any economic recovery then oil demand will suddenly fall some more - and so will the price if people like OPEC can't afford to drop production yet more.
So, which happens first, full oil tanks, depletion/curtailing of existing production, or economic recovery?
Great graph on the "End of Car Culture" article.
But if the public is not driving, and the public is not buying goods transported by road, and Cushing is full, and loaded tankers are sitting at anchor, then who is buying and why is oil going up?
edited to put errant apostrophe in its place
Jobs are not as bad as thought... But remember even in this nasty recession we've been trading at ~$50/barrel, which is a much higher floor on the price of oil than we had a few years ago...
Oil jumps ahead of supply report
Futures advance as stocks cheer signs of life in the job market. Government report is expected to show the nation's supplies of crude grew by 2.2 million barrels last week.
Also, check out the futures chain for oil to see where the market expects oil to be...
Expect the price of champagne to rise too! We have reason to celebrate!! Only half a million folks lost their jobs.
That's private-sector; so other estimates suggest large additional numbers in April.
Bloomberg quoted on TAE says
I have my own theories about the decline in vehicle miles.
There were a lot of people who could barely, marginally afford to own and maintain a car and with the economic downturn; have given up their car entirely. I'm talking about people who are barely employable; maybe with drinking or drug problems perhaps with $1000s in tickets from drunk driving or reckless driving; illegal immigrants; people living in the inner city with $1000s of unpaid parking tickets; seniors who maybe are not able to react fast enough.
Many of these people are barely able to manage owning a car in the best of times, and the economic slowdown has pushed them over the edge.
Don't forget that the majority of people are very horrible with managing money. Add in an expensive potentially dangerous car, some alchohol, bills; and the result is not pretty.
The second factor is the housing bust. Millions of real estate agents are not out showing homes. Less construction workers driving around in F350s. Less mortgage brokers buying new H3s with their bonuses and HELOC money.
.. and of course the 25 million adults who are simply poor.