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325 comments on On American Sustainability - Anatomy of Societal Collapse (Summary)
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325 comments on On American Sustainability - Anatomy of Societal Collapse (Summary)
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Gail,
Thanks for the post!
The answers to your questions are covered in detail in the "long version" of my paper. My thoughts on renewable energy sources start on page 34; and my thoughts on what we should be doing start on page 25. (Is that an inducement to read the whole thing, or what?!)
But the short answer to the first question is - Renewable energy initiatives, while essential to our sustainable future, must be presented, evaluated, and assessed objectively—from the perspective of their economic return on investment (ROI), their energy return on investment (ERoEI), and their scalability. While it is true that renewable energy sources will provide all of the energy in our sustainable future, it is also true that renewable energy sources will never supply more than a small fraction of the total energy to which we have become accustomed and upon which our American way of life depends.
To the second - The only rational solution to our predicament is an American Cultural Revolution (ACR), during which we transition voluntarily, quickly—within 25 years—and beginning immediately, from our unsustainable American way of life to a sustainable and self-sufficient lifestyle paradigm—-a lifestyle paradigm in which we will live within our means ecologically and economically, forever.
Among the most salient ACR requirements: we must change fundamentally both our existing worldview and our existing resource utilization behavior; we must use remaining resources to facilitate our transition process, rather than waste them on futile attempts to perpetuate our unsustainable American way of life; and we must all participate—an ACR is an all-or-nothing proposition.
We live in a dynamic, chaotic world and I would postulate that living 'sustainably' is impossible if you mean a static level of consumption per head of population effectively forever.
Let's take the scenario where we attempt BAU as long as possible and hit some cliff -there will be huge resources remaining for any survivors. So this is not a steady state as they can then use these resources to expand. If on the other hand we attempt to transition to renewables the world is awash with energy -200 times more solar energy hits the Earth than humanity uses- so although we again might see a die off ultimatley we would expand into this massive supply until we hit some other non-sustainable impediment.
So my question to you is what exactly do you mean by 'sustainable'?
Nick.
I thought the point had already been cleared up on tod that even though there is this huge surplus solar energy coming in, there is little prospect of the huge ready capacity to harvest it, in which case it means diddly-squat. Or are you playing a cracked record here?
Actually, no. That hasn't been cleared up at all.
If you want to discuss it, though, I'd focus more on wind, because the case for wind's success is far clearer. Multiple posts on TOD have shown it has high E-ROI, current large scale, and scalability to provide most of the energy we need.
Ok. Though from my own reading of previous TOD I got the impression, perhaps false, that both wind and solar would depend on substantial oil inputs for their construction and maintenance, to the extent that they would not be anything like as fab as might otherwise appear. I think I recall Gail considering them to be more like investments of foss-fuels rather than genuinely 'renewables'. Anyway, this probably isn't the ideal location to re-discuss such an important and complex question -- beyond perhaps adding some links in support of your last sentence above.
That is a thesis of one poster with some followers here.
Yes, the wind turbine manufacturer work force drives to work (the USA ones anyway) today. This does not mean that they could not 1) bicycle or 2) take a streetcar or 3) take an EV to work in the future.
Oil will become scarcer but not disappear for many decades. Work arounds exist today and will be progressively implemented if social organization does not collapse.
Alan
I don't think the transportation of the workforce is the issue. Truly sustainable windmills or solar panels will have to be manufactured, installed and maintained using the power from those same windmills and solar panels. As now, we get what is left.
Wind turbines produce electricity, so what you're saying is that we'll need to do these things with electricity.
Well, most manufacturing is powered by electricity right now, so that's straightforward.
Installation (transport and construction) takes a very small amount of liquid fuel, and that eventually will be electrified.
Maintenance takes a tiny amount of energy, and also eventually will be electrified.
we get what is left.
Given that wind has a very high E-ROI, that's no problem.
RobinPC,
In the discussion there are some links to EROEI just after Gail asked this question.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5291#more
About 2-5% of the energy used in manufacturing and installing turbines is for transportation, including transport of overseas components. This may be a bit high now because larger turbines are assembled closer to final sites. Larger turbines also have a much higher EROEI paying back energy uses in weeks or months. If you include the potential energy used by the workers employed ( ie personnel use based on value of turbines and energy/GDP) the energy payback is still less than 2 years.
You can do a few calculations about how much energy would be used to maintain all of the HV transmission lines in US(250,000 miles) assuming every pylon is inspected once a week by a 4 wheel drive crew, say 50,000 miles of travel per day at 1gallon diesel/25 miles= 2,000 gallons/day or 40 barrels/day(or I could be out by a factor of X10 lets say 400 barrels/day) compare this to 19,000,000 barrels/day used for transport in US, hard to see oil companies being excited about wind energy investments. It would be hard to think of what genuinely renewable would have to be if wind power doesn't quality. The biggest use of oil would be for lubrication of those turbines with gearboxes. Nick's point below about most of this EI being electricity is important for long term outcomes.
Neil1947: Thanks for carefully presenting this account. Just it appears to be bypassed into irrelevance by Rockman's proposed apology by Gail once someone starts spending the 10's of billions required to make it actually happen. Point is that technological feasibility counts for nothing if funding is not going to forthcome.
The project of my 2004 book www.lulu.com/content/140930 was designed to address the problem that "so many sound ideas....continue to be ignored...".
And on that basis, pending Gail having to send in that apology, my point appears to remain standing that:
Robin,
Here you are living through the worst recession in 80 years, and what is happening about renewable energy? Last 3 months 2,800 MW of wind capacity was built, another 3,000 MW under construction. How does that compare with similar Q1 2008 before recession really started to bite, Q1 2008, 1,400MW completed, and about 3,000MW under construction.
Also some major solar energy projects http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/05/arizona-largest-solar-plant.php
It may well be that some projects have been delayed or canceled due to financing problems, but wind turbine parts were back-ordered to 2011 and now costs for steel and cement have declined.
It's happening now! this seems to be one sound idea that isn't being ignored, you are fortunate that you now have a leader who is supporting renewable energy 100%.
Here's a good article on solar PV:
"The economics of solar power are changing rapidly. And if the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development (PI) is right that solar module prices will fall more than 50% by 2012, grid parity will be achieved across many parts of the US."
http://setenergy.org/2009/05/11/much-of-us-to-enjoy-solar-grid-parity-by...
The article cited claims grid parity in 2012 based on the anticipated cost of fossil fuel electricity midway through the life (i.e. in 2024) of the newly installed PV panels. Get serious.
I'm not sure what you feel is "un-serious". Do you disagree that electricity prices are likely to continue to rise?
Grid parity in 2024 in not the same thing as grid parity in 2012. Taking economic comfort in the fact that in three years time installing expensive PV generation will be our best option because of unstoppable energy price rises for a long time into the future does not seem very smart.
Well, that exaggerates the importance of the assumption of rising electricity prices.
The fact is, that PV grid-parity is beginning to emerge right now for a very few specific applications and locations. This will just expand over the coming years, and the assumption of rising power prices will only change the inflection point by 2-3 years.
Also, keep in mind that this is the unsubsidized price, which doesn't reflect any of the externalities, like CO2, sulfur, etc, etc.
The fact is, that solar is here: as production expands, prices will continue to fall, and demand will rise explosively.
It would be hard to think of what genuinely renewable would have to be if wind power doesn't quality
Hydroelectric is even better. And the USA has enough hydroelectric for "essential demand" in large areas of the USA.
Alan
Alan, what's the best source/explanation for that? Is there a good explanation of how it would satisfy those who have been opposing new hydro and pushing to dismantle old?
Most of the civil works for a dam will last centuries or millennium. One Chinese dam is about 4,000 years old. Earthfill dams get stronger over time.
If the reservoir fills up, the site can be converted to "run-of-the-river" powerplant by reworking the intakes.
"Good practice" is to rebuild the generator & turbine every 50 years; but many last longer than that. North Korea and Albania (in their decades of isolation) keep hydropower plants going with "minimal inputs".
Once built, minimal inputs required for centuries. Lots of power can be produced.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Ah. I thought you were saying that hydro could be expanded substantially in the US. 6% of current KWHs (248TWhrs/4,157) isn't nothing, but it's not quite as large as suggested by " enough hydroelectric for "essential demand" in large areas of the USA."
Depends on what defines as essential demand.
Some lighting (8 watt CFLs ?), refrigeration on the commercial & retail level at least, washing clothes with electricity is MUCH easier than the other way, some microwave cooking even. Machine tools, electrified railroads as well.
And the numbers a net loss from pumped storage (why hit hydro with that ?).
Some new small hydro in the USA and more large hydro from Canada (Manitoba is shopping 5 GW ATM).
Alan
These posts are really nice, but some comments are so naive that they actually reflect that naive American mentality that the author described so well... Many American are indeed naive (but not only Americans as this is a global issue). I think that the main contribution of this work is, in fact, to push the Americans (and not only) to think by using strong language and pictures. The author did a good job in this sense!
You don't need big numbers and equations (I am a mathematician btw) here to see the extent of the problem. You are speaking about building a network of wind power generators able to sustain the current lifestyle in the US. This is amazingly naive.
Have you any clue of how many different materials you need to put up even just one of these generators? First of all steel, do you know the temperature needed to bake steel? And you want to reach that temperature with wind power? Assuming that you are going to use the last remaining oil for baking the steel and care about manufacturing/maintenance of your fabulous network. Do you know that in order to transmit electricity over large distances you have to put the hell of a current in the cables otherwise it's all dissipated on the way after a few KMs? Are you going to put a wind generator every 5 KM^2? And when there is no wind? How are you going to power machinery for mineral extraction (assuming that some mineral is left), how are you going to guarantee basic services such as air transport? Do you realize to which extent our society relies on air transport? Do you know how long it takes to bring a letter for NY to LA without a plane? Or are you going to keep internet up? How? How do you dig and lie the cables? With DC powered excavators? Batteries today can barely keep up my pc for 3 hours and can push a plastic car at 70km/h!!! Is that enough? How do you manufacture the cables? How do you harvest mineral resources from all around the world? Hu yeah, with the US army, well you will need a big deal of oil as well, cause fighters and tanks are not working on DC. Furthermore, how do you deliver food? Have you any idea of how much oil the world food logistic network requires? I do research on this topic and two words must suffice to you: "A LOT".
This is not to be pessimistic and to speak like if I write the "Book of Revelation". But here we have a clear and well defined problem. Resources are running out and the impact of this depletion is clearly visible worldwide (otherwise we wouldn't be here to discuss). According to many respectable research articles, resources will become scarce within our lifetime. Up to now noone came up with a feasible solution. Feasible is not, we put up a solar/wind/whatever network. Feasible means that we achieve the same EROEI as OIL and we have got the same transportability, flexibility (think about the fact that oil is also used for making fertilizers, pesticides, and thousands of other essential things you need to sustain 5 BILLION people on this tiny Earth) and AVAILABILITY.
The problem is indeed "can we make it without oil?". The likely scenario is that we won't make it. Occam's razor is clear, the simplest answer is always the correct explanation. If you come up with a complex, tricky, and most of all vague and simplicistic explanation of how you are going to sustain our society without oil, well that's not the answer, the answer is that our society will collapse.
The fact is that, indeed, we are going to collapse if we carry on like we are doing now... the point is to prove that we have a workaround! When you are ill, it's pointless to point the finger against the doctor, you have to get a cure as soon as possible, before it's too late!
You don't need big numbers and equations (I am a mathematician btw) here to see the extent of the problem.
Actually, you do.
do you know the temperature needed to bake steel? And you want to reach that temperature with wind power?
Sure. Did you know that the primary energy source for steel mills is...electricity??
More later...
All of the steps required are perfectly doable with available resources.
Your lack of technical knowledge may make them seem intimidating. They are really not.
The resources devoted to supporting & expanding Suburbia are >> than those required to build a reasonable renewable future.
Best Hopes for 3 TW of wind turbines and a North American HV DC grid.
Alan
Alan, you meant to reply to Gwren, and replied to me by mistake.
You might want to repost your reply to Gwren, to make that clearer to readers.
gwren,
It is you who is showing a lack of knowledge about the world around you now in 2009. Wind power exists in the US, and is transmitted over long distances by HV transmission lines. Battery operated vehicles exist today that go more than 70km/h( actually more than 110km/h).
Wind turbines have a very high EROEI probably higher than oil extracted from US in 2009. Fertilizer is made form natural gas but can be made form electricity, see today's post. When you say "resources are running out" you probably are thinking of FF resources such as oil. We have been discussing resource depletion since at least "The Limits of Growth" was published in 1972, so far we haven't run out of any mineral resources, but will probably soon find oil less available than it has been in the past.
Thanks to you all for your answers :)
I thought I was late and the discussion was far too quick, instead someone read me ;)
I will answer only to Neil, cause he seem to summarize all the criticism above.
"Wind power exists in the US, and is transmitted over long distances by HV transmission lines."
I really cannot think about a non-hybrid wind network able to transmit over significant distances in a reliable way. Electricity CAN be produced from wind, that is out of doubt, the problem is HOW MUCH ELECTRICITY we can produce and is that enough to support suburbia? The point is that YOU are proposing this thesis, that it is possible, so YOU should provide data to support it, not just say "hey may I have a wind generator behind my house and it generate electricity". It is funny how people reverse the notion of "mathematical" proof on the oil drum. I know that OIL can support suburbia, I am not really sure that electricity can achieve that... numbers please...
"Battery operated vehicles exist today that go more than 70km/h( actually more than 110km/h)."
Battery operated vehicle DO NOT HAVE enough power to perform any work such as transporting and lifting heavy loads. I have never seen a battery operated CAT. I agree that there exists some very light prototype able to achieve 110... so is this invalidating my claim on the fact that you cannot rely on batteries for construction works or for transporting say 70 people on a bus at 110k/h?
"When you say "resources are running out" you probably are thinking of FF resources such as oil. We have been discussing resource depletion since at least "The Limits of Growth" was published in 1972, so far we haven't run out of any mineral resources, but will probably soon find oil less available than it has been in the past."
I know the limits to growth very well... I perfectly know that it is a capacity problem the one we are facing and not a problem of running out of something. Still, do you seriously think that when the world oil production will decline, you will be able to get oil as easily as today, but just in less quantity? I hope you are dreaming... people will fight like hell to get what remains!!! The cost will be prohibitive to allow any economic activity in the best scenario. In the worst... then war is the issue.
Battery operated vehicle DO NOT HAVE enough power to perform any work such as transporting and lifting heavy loads.
This is completely unrealistic. Electric power trains power freight trains, US military tanks, etc, etc.
Nick,
Here is my definition of "sustainable", as it pertains to a society or population:
A sustainable society utilizes renewable natural resources exclusively, at levels less than or equal to the levels at which they are replenished by Nature; by extension, a sustainable society degrades natural habits at levels less than or equal to the levels at which they are regenerated by Nature—forever. All other resource utilization behavior, and all human societies that engage in this behavior, are unsustainable—period.
My view is that we don't really have a choice regarding whether or not we'd like to be sustainable; we'll either transition voluntarily to a sustainable lifestyle paradigm, or Nature will do it for us--horrifically. My money is on the second scenario!
This is a worthless definition for anything except the most abstract mind game theories.
Humanity can, and will, operate quite successfully with some minimal use of "non-sustainable" resource extraction for the next several thousand years.
For example, if coal use (to pick a bad resource extraction) is reduced to 1% of current levels (perhaps easier than charcoal for carbon steel), humanity will have thousands of years of coal left. And no noticeable climate impact by burning the coal.
There are lands that have been farmed for at least 4,500 years. Not "sustainably", but they have a few thousand years left.
Making decisions today because conditions in the year 4309 will force us to is not even prudent. Only a very few decisions need to consider impacts beyond a century in the future (and none past a half millennium that I can think of).
I appreciate the effort you have put forth, but you apparently think only in absolutes (X will not work do we must then go immediately to -X) with a bias towards the negative.
Your immediate conclusion that the USA cannot have better health care for less $ was clearly wrong (as I demonstrated with other nations). You appear to make the same limiting judgments in your long paper.
Best Hopes for Realistic Planning and Advocacy,
Alan
Nick asked for my definition of "sustainability" and I gave it to him. I never implied that "unsustainable" societies cannot and have not existed for long periods of time--they have! As you point out, agrarian societies are unsustainable, yet some have existed for centuries or more. Depending on soil quality and soil management techniques, it can sometimes take quite awhile to extract all of the nutrients--but it will happen eventually...
The issue with industrialized societies such as ours is that we are so overextended--dependent upon many nonrenewable resources, the supplies of which are unsustainable--that we are in a metaphorical sense driving full speed toward a minefield. We might be clever enough to dodge some of the mines, but we will not be able to dodge them all.
We need not experience exhaustion in all or even any of these resources in order to experience societal collapse--a permanent shortfall in a single critical nonrenewable resource, such as oil, could probably do the trick!
Hi Chris
There is strong evidence just above in some of the posts of the societal cognitive dissonance to which you refer. I recently finished a sustainability Masters degree; and I covered much of the material in your post at an academic level. The people who posted above know, at least intuitively, that we are suffering from oil depletion and that climate change is a serious risk management issue that is not being addressed. They may know about issues such as food shortages and what lies behind them. They will also be aware of conflict around the world and what is driving it. Failing to connect the dots between these issues, for they are all linked, is a good example of the cognitive dissonance we are talking about. Each of these issues is different and separate in most peoples minds; and they think a set of actions (no doubt according to their own political belief system) can fix each problem on its own, when of course systemic change is needed.
It all comes down to the scary fact that humans are in ecological overshoot. My children, (16, 13 and 9) will suffer the period when the die-back starts and that fact is deeply depressing for me. Mitigation is possible, but like you, I see scant evidence that we even recognize the problem, let alone are willing to do anything about it. Societal collapse is not new. It has happened many times before. What is different this time round is that it will be almost global. I am in awe of the grand arrogance we display. We think that all our knowledge and technology makes us smarter. But it doesn't; and deep down most people on this site know this is true.
BTW the Book of Revelations doesn't recognize overshoot. It was irrelevant in all previous societal collapses and is irrelevant now.
Saildog,
Thanks for your time and for your comments.
I'd be interested to know more about your formal education in "sustainability"; we didn't have such when I went to school! (Wish we would have!)
My kids are a bit older than yours, but I feel the same way. They were actually a primary motivator in my quest to research our predicament.
The interesting thing to me about impending societal collapses such as ours is that human societies have never been overextended to the extent that industrialized societies such as the US are today. When H-G or agrarian societies crashed, they didn't have that far to fall. If we're overextended on the order of 30 to 1, as my numbers suggest, we've got a LONG way to fall!!