<DrumBeat: May 23, 2009 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: May 24, 2009>

64 comments on Report Review: Prosperity without Growth

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Nate Hagens on May 23, 2009 - 9:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Todd my friend,
Of all the things I have learned reading this website (and researching related issues) over past 5 years the most profound is that facts just don't matter as much as I believed. Facts about resource depletion are like shooting a BB gun at an elephant. We won't get really resourceful until the elephant has charged through us and moved on. Then maybe we will remember the facts. (and hopefully the real facts, not the political ones).

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porge on May 23, 2009 - 10:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A lot of despair starting to accumulate here.............maybe that is an early sign that the worm is turning as relates to mass awareness?
Always darkest before the dawn No?
The next demand spike for energy will send prices up again and that will get a lot of peoples attention.
I really want to thank all the contributors to this and other like sites for making information available that otherwise would not be.
You have opened my eyes and i , in turn, am doing what I can to wake others up to this monumental period in human history. Hopefully it will gain traction and spread geometrically....hopefully.

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Nate Hagens on May 23, 2009 - 1:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A lot of despair starting to accumulate here.............maybe that is an early sign that the worm is turning as relates to mass awareness?

1)My comment shouldn't have been read as despairing. I am many years past despair and am more hopeful/resolved than ever for long term. Short-intermediate term will be some pain. Kind of like waiting for surgery...

2)I have reached point where I don't believe mass awareness would be a good thing. But it's just a belief...;-)

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ericy on May 23, 2009 - 3:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I guess my thoughts here are that most people are going to remain ignorant until far too late. The perception will be that "things just aren't working" any more, but for the vast masses they won't really understand why. We saw some of this last year when gas prices spiked. All kinds of people were blaming OPEC, speculators, or greedy oil companies. You try and explain it to them, and they blow you off and repeat the previous assertions. I suspect that to an extent people are really looking for simple explanations, especially ones where there might be a relatively simple fix of some sort.

In the future I expect this pattern to be repeated. There will be some shortage of some sort - prices will spike, and the general public will be looking for more scapegoats. While they may never really grasp the underlying reality, the higher prices will ultimately force them to use less of whatever is in short supply, but there will still be a yearning to go back to what they had before.

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porge on May 23, 2009 - 3:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's a catch 22.
Nothing is going to change until a very significant percentage of the population recognizes just how dire the situation really is.
I agree with you though it will be more like a panic than a light bulb moment.

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Todd on May 23, 2009 - 8:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Porge,

You are too optimistic - and if you weren't posting on TOD, I'd say you don't get it. Not a damn thing is going to change until everyone gets it. "They" are only going to get it when society collapses and people are dying left and right and services have died too. And, even then, there will be a few holdouts who refuse to change paradigms.

There will be no "light bulb moment" before it is too late to transition to anything that is stable-state. The result will be chaos.

Todd

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porge on May 23, 2009 - 8:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I also think that it will be a panic.
I think you may have misinterpreted my post.
I see what you see out here in suburbia.
Complete denial or if I want to sound more formal "cognitive dissonance".

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eric blair on May 26, 2009 - 1:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A lot of despair starting to accumulate here.............maybe that is an early sign that the worm is turning as relates to mass awareness?

This is a self selecting group - people who think "the topics here are downers" and don't want to be 'down' leave.

The people who are "ok" with "down" stick around and comment. Sometimes the comments are light and flippant, other times have yet another interesting fact to help others weave their own narrative taperstry in their lives.

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Todd on May 23, 2009 - 11:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate good buddy,

As aside along your lines...years ago when I decided that the corporate trip was a load crap and my wife and I had decided to move to the boondocks, I told my fellow "executives" what we were doing. Without exception that all said how much they wished they could do the same thing and then launched into a bazillion rationales as to why they couldn't do it. They all knew they'd eventually be screwed but couldn't let go of the power and status.

Part of this was, no doubt, that they didn't have confidence in their abilities "in the real world". Another part had to be because they couldn't envision themselves/families living "differently".

FWIW, my first job after being a chemical plant manager was as the custodian at the elementary school. I loved it! One of my favorite things to do was correct errors that the teachers made when they wrote stuff on their blackboards. I was finally told to stop since it made the teachers look bad.

Yea, facts don't matter.

Todd

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electrosyzygy on May 24, 2009 - 5:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Some thoughts and ramblings: My intuition tells me that it goes well beyond a lack of confidence in one's abilities in the real world, or the inability to imagine an alternative lifestyle which holds people back. Perhaps the problem is more existential in nature. You hinted at power and status and those I think are the most important factors. We have bought into consumerism/materialism so completely that our lives are devoid of meaning when not pursuing its ideals. Ultimately, despite the rationalizing, most people will not transition simply because they don't REALLY believe an alternative life without all the gizmos, power, status seeking would be all that satisfying because what they ascribe importance and meaning to now is no longer prominent in the alternative view. Replacing the previous world view/metanarrative by something as coherent, and dare I say hegemonic, as to provide meaning/purpose, a sense of self and place, comfort and reassurance is difficult indeed as it requires a complete change in values and beliefs. And I think it's safe to say that most if not all of us here on TOD went through a gradual and possibly painful, depressing and disillusioning process. Our egos are our worst enemies I guess..."The only reason I feel secure, is that I am validated by my peers".

We should be patient with our peers and try to more effectively communicate our message, our values whatever they may be, and provide a tangible and attractive alternative. We have a 'gospel' to spread (yes, I happen to think PO is good news! ;) ), people to engage and lots of work to do! And though we will certainly not save the world, we can still be/make a difference for our families, friends, coworkers, and communities. There's no sense in overwhelming people to despair or being self-righteous and self-congratulatory.

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porge on May 24, 2009 - 10:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree with your stream of consciousness.
This incredibly complex hyper-specialized society/economy that is the current arrangement is very, very fragile and the complete result of a concentrated, cheap and artificial energy source.
Humans in industrialized societies have become so divorced from their true relationship to the environment and so narrow in their skills that the transition to a more natural and sustainable existence will be very disruptive. Ironically the societies that have benefited the least form the oil age will end up suffering the least in the years ahead. I guess there is such a thing as Karma after all.
People will begin to transition when their current situation is more trouble to them than it is worth.
Also once they see that they are not the only ones that can't "keep up appearances" it won't seem such an ego hit.........after all the only thing that makes people feel superior is being Relatively better off than the Jones'.

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electrosyzygy on May 24, 2009 - 8:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Bang on. It's all about keeping up with appearances for now. How vain we are indeed. It's never about being wealthy, or handsome per se--for what pride could one have out of being wealthy or handsome if everyone was equally well endowed? No, we gain our pleasure and self-importance from being comparatively better off, or better looking than the next guy (or gal)! Time and time again I catch myself thinking that way, especially when on the prowl for some female company ;) always sizing up...what an ego gratifying experience it is to have the hottest girl in town. I sure expend a lot of time and energy/money on such endeavors!

I'm not sure whether or not societies that have the least benefited from oil will really be better off than others. For many of them I guess, their BAU is subsistence and a precarious existence. But even were we to go through severe disruptions, our descent, however abrupt, especially I think in my part of the world (Quebec), will not be as severe, and I seriously doubt our existence will resemble that of countries that developed largely without oil. For sure, transition will be very uneven region to region, and country to country.

Most of the posters on TOD are from the US and EU I presume, but the situation in my part of Canada is very different, and I doubt the doomer scenarios will apply. Perhaps our biggest issue during transition will be dealing with throngs of American refugees!? I'd like to know more about regional PO issues, especially in dealing with Quebec (there's precious little on TOD:Canada...anyone out there?). Despite our many problems, we have massive amounts of fresh water (3% of the world's reserves for 8 million people) and plenty of rain, very healthy and productive arable land, our cities aren't too big and fairly compact, all of them are surrounded by plenty of farmland nearby, and though we are energy hogs 97-8% of our electricity is hydro so some small incentives like a price hike or other controls would make us self-sufficient. Also, the St-Lawrence seaway/corridor will remain a significant economic asset, whose importance to transportation in increasingly regionalized markets will surely grow. We also have plenty other raw materials and resources and I see some sort of new industry flourishing here in a peak oil world. When it comes to Quebec, I'm a cornucopian. If I was a native of NYC, or SoCal or Arizona, I wouldn't be so hopeful.

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64 comments on Report Review: Prosperity without Growth

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