85 comments on Tight storage may lead to huge oil price drop
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85 comments on Tight storage may lead to huge oil price drop
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GAIA Host Collective
Eeks;
Thanks for the heads up on the possibility of drop in oil prices. However, your Figure # 5 shows that oil prices dropped mostly because of the recession and demand destruction. In fact until January, those who bought futures contacts lost money. Therefore, assuming that the enormous amounts of money being poured into the economies by various governments around the world will start the economies going again, then demand for oil also will pick up. If the recession continues, based on the link you have provided (http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Markets/article/20...) there is still plenty of storage capacity available. Here is what the article says: “The good news is that the world isn't yet running short of floating capacity. According to a spokesman at Frontline, the leading tanker company, there are over 500 large tankers globally, able to provide plenty more floating capacity before producers really need to worry.” Never the less, it is clear that we are not out of the woods yet and caution may be prudent. bzl14
I saw a comment further down that the world presently had a bout 520 huge crude carriers.
Most of these will be occupied by moving crude from exporters to importers, and I am not certain of the exact figure. However to me it is clear that at some point the number of tankers that can be used for storage will be limited by the need of tankers needed to move oil around.
- Rune
Of course this leads you to need to explain the collapse in tanker rates.
The world is swimming in oil but it looks like oil tankers are no longer needed to collect it.
http://shipchartering.blogspot.com/2009/04/vlcc-rates-at-11-year-lows-sc...
If we had seen even a shred of evidence that tanker rates where under some pressure then I'd buy into we are moving enough oil around to have large inventory builds and offshore storage.
Three pieces of information that are independent point to this storage build being very questionable.
1.) VMT
2.) Tanker Rates
3.) The oil price
Pdf
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/09febtvt/09febtvt.pdf
Page 9 you can see that the rate of change of VMT has started to leveled off significantly.
I'm not aware of anyone predicting this :)
The odd man out is the storage claims.
Now as far as distillates go
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_distillate.html
We had a strong build in imports even though the US has become a fairly big exporter of distillates.
Another interesting part of the puzzle.
If I had to guess I'd say some people are not expecting a huge glut in oil anytime soon.
With respect to distillates, I know one of the issues is that Mexico cannot produce the very low sulphur diesel that is now required, especially for US trucks crossing the border. So they send us crude oil, we refine it, and send it back.
TWIP has import data, but only guesses at export data. One has to wait for monthly data for exports. Based on monthly data, the US has been a net exporter of distillates since late 2007. This has not changed in 2009, based on monthly data through February.
I agree my point was why the large import of distillates ?
This increase only served to help the inventory situation grow.
With the demand curve like this.
I don't have a simple explanation for the sudden urge the US had to import distillates.
I have a complex one that does not fit in the margins of this post :)
Could that be due to a decline in consumption?
All your listed points towards a decline in consumption.
However, what about the others?
Only time will tell.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but memmels point was that if tanker rates are so low then there cannot be such high levels of storage, the more oil that is stored the higher the tanker rates would go.