<DrumBeat: May 16, 2009 The Oil Drum Energy Journal Roundup: May 2009>

25 comments on Where are oil prices headed?

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goghgoner on May 16, 2009 - 10:42am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Other -- price stable around $65 for the rest of the year.

By the winter swine flu mutates and the price falls to $2.

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totoneila on May 16, 2009 - 4:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello Goghgoner,

"By the winter swine flu mutates and the price falls to $2."

Interesting scenario, but I think it needs further elaboration. If enough people are sick and dying [hope not!] the $2/bbl might be the average global wellhead price, but since so many skilled people are sick or dead--it can't get moved through the very long infrastructure supply chain, so if you happen to live in an area far from a wellhead [like I do in my AZ Asphaltistan :(], gasoline might be $20/gal and empty food shelves.

EDIT: This is basically what happened when the horses dropped dead and/or got really sick back in the 1873 Equine Outbreak--people had to pull the cargo buggies themselves, but they could not move enough wood and coal to even keep most trains running.

EDIT2: Imagine KSA marching 3,000 unskilled, un-informed rookies into a shutdown Mega-huge refinery with only the directive to 'fire this baby up'! I am sure they will. :(

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goghgoner on May 17, 2009 - 7:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

After reading your comment, I ran across the article below. I think you are right, however, I was just using swine flu as an example of one of the seemingly infinite possibilities that may effect the price of oil in the future.

LINK

Pulaski County's coroner said investigators are probing whether a 28-year-old offshore oil worker's death may have been caused by the H1N1 flu.

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25 comments on Where are oil prices headed?

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