Other: forcasting anything is a fools occupation. Read "The Black Swan" or "Fooled by Randomness".

BTW: The only reality is "Here" and "Now". Just thought I would mention that.

"Do not try to avoid predicting. I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places." -- Nassim Taleb

It's irrational to expect people to be rational, and vice-versa.