$100 was high enough to topple the economic structure of 2008. Admittedly, much of the economic activity of that time was smoke, mirrors, and legalized fraud, but I can't see what's left supporting prices much above where we are today.

(Just my Spidey Senses Tingling here, I don't have any data to back that up.)

Hi Last_Historian,

Your predictions make a lot of sense to me - unless there are some totally unanticipated geo-political events like an over throw of the KSA or a major swine thing.

But that aside, the only part I wonder about is the "end of 2009" dip in prices. We know that all the "smartest guys in the room" bought execss oil from last year and put it into storage. Now, they need to meter it out as prices rise - what I believe you were getting at with "overflowing storage capacity". So, this will dampen any quick rise in prices over the next several months i.e. your $60-70 predicition sounds good. But regardless of the financial crisis issues, is it really likely that these guys, and other oil producers, are going to permit $45? They accepted $40 a few months ago because they had crude in the pipeline and had little choice but to sell it for whatever they could get. Do you really think they are going to get into this situation again?

My guess (admittedly a WAG) is that this dip will not go below the $60 price point (which you did suggest as the high end of the range).

2010= $80
2011=Yuan804
2012=Yuan120
2013=Yuan150
2014=Yuan200
2014=Yuan400.

Check your assumptions.

I agree. Up in the next few moths. Down by the end of the year when the sucker's rally ends. I don't think that we have solved any of our financial problems, we just postponed them at enormous cost.

There are always pull backs in a market crash link and this crash we are in still has a long way to go.