86 comments on Oilwatch Monthly May 2009
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86 comments on Oilwatch Monthly May 2009
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Yes this is true. Some areas of the world have undergone a demographic transition and greatly increased their standard of living, greatly increased their education and even lifespans. So obviously all we have to do is bring the rest of the world up to the standard of living enjoyed in the West. Countries like Bangladesh, India, China, the rest of Asia and all of Africa needs to be industrialized. They need modern homes with modern heating and air conditioning. They need factories, they need high paying jobs, they need cars, they need trucks they need freeways....err...wait a minute.
Well hell Pitt, just how are we going to put the rest of the world through this demographic transition?
Ron P.
And the demographic transition has taken, in about 40 years, world population growth from a peak of approximately 2.0% growth per year to 1.1% or so. IMO, it better start doing a lot better than that.
More on the Demographic Transition. Duncan is mostly right and Pit is mostly wrong. No doubt that some who have raised their standard of living have also lowered their birth rate. However some countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and many other Middle Eastern countries have experienced a tremendous jump in population growth rate since their newfound wealth. Slightly higher fertility rates are only part of the reason.
And even in some countries where the fertility rates have slightly dropped they still are experiencing higher population growth. This is because of better medical care. Live birth rates are up. Women dying during childbirth are dramatically down, infant mortality rates are down, way down. And, last but not least, people are living a lot longer.
Saudi Arabia is a perfect example. They have a birth rate of 28.55 births per 1,000 and a death rate of only 2.49 deaths per 1,000. This is a dramatic change from the middle of the last century and all because of the demographic transition, that is the newfound wealth of their citizenry.
CIA World Factbook-Saudi Arabia
Ron P.
Darwinian,
I think I read some where that SA are using huge quantities of energy (mainly natural gas) for water desalination. Sustainable growth is this ?
If you're going to say that Duncan is mostly right and Pitt is mostly wrong, you should make some effort to quantify that claim. For example, what number of people live in countries where the demographic transition has taken place vs. where it hasn't. Putting forward Saudi Arabia as an essentially anecdotal example does not suffice to show that Duncan's assumptions are warranted.