Having all the "state of the art equipment" is the problem.

It breeds the "why should I drive the ship when the autopilot can while I read my book and look outside every 20 minutes or so"

Ed

Apparently the Navy tried to drop celestial navigation all the way back in the ancient days of 1998. So I do have some doubts - I wonder whether they finally dropped it, or sidelined it as an obscure elective, in order to "save money".

Oh, and don't count on the button-pushers for anything, such as maintaining even a sham of situational awareness. Consider these clowns (first item at link), who ran their ship aground by ignoring a broken antenna connection. Apparently the town lights brightening dead ahead meant nothing, nor did the alarms emanating from the pretty computerized display. I'd like to hope they lost their mariner's licenses, but who knows.

I suppose it's down to Arthur Clarke's third law, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." Computerized GPS-driven displays are certainly magic. Not only are they magic but, dude, they're technology. So why would anyone think they'd need something as archaic as an antenna?

I don't see that as the same kind of problem. Agriculture will be a priority, no matter what. And when it fails, it is likely to be gradual.

I agree with that - there are many different agriculture systems the world over, some more vulnerable than others. There will be shortages here and there, because of higher price of inputs. The USA, however, runs a surplus and exports a lot of calories and vegetable protein mostly as animal feed, as well as some high-value fruits & wine etc. Some of the US surplus goes (or has gone) in variable amounts as emergency aid. The recent devotion of US corn crop for biothanol, could be temporary.
Whether segments of USA population will find it increasingly difficult to afford food is a different matter.

Food is usually a priority. But especially when people are hungry, food is a priority, no matter what. Curious, then, that famines ever occur, what with all our prioritizing. Maybe we're not in as much control over the food as we think we are.

But anyway we're talking about two completely different surrounding environments. Yes, on the upslope of energy, things fail, and everything else around is running smoothly to lessen the effects of the failure.

And in the past I might have claimed that on the downslope that failures will compound and cascade, because surrounding environments won't be running smoothly, but now I'm advocating that we all just sit back and see what happens. If the gradual-crashers are right, they'll have time to rub it in. If the fast-crashers are right, we'll all likely be dead so who was right won't matter.

I think dealing with collapse is the most complex problem mankind has ever faced. Far more complex than any engineering problem - from GPS to the flight to the moon.

I too was ones very keen on all kinds of scenario plans and how to be self sufficient from all these 'complex systems': how to put up some solar panels and get off the grid etc. And it was all easy - all you need is engineering skills and money - and I have plenty of both.

However eventually I realised I was looking at the wrong end of the problem. Sure you have to try to have a contigency plan for every eventuality - but even in this you cannot have the cake and eat it. I might spend a fortune on an independent power generating system, have a well drilled with solar pumps and storage tanks installed. There are volumes written on the subject - whole movements dedicated to various levels of 'survivalism'. But in the end its all useless...

Because I realised that the real problem is people. People who have for too long lived in a world where you don't have to share anything with other people - even with members of your family. Every problem to do with sharing resources, space, time - can be 'solved' in our world with a bit of money - people are used to it. What they aren't used to is having to share things communally - having to manage and regulate a shared water table for example - or a stream to irrigate their garden plots.

Even having to trade with each other - in person - haggling the right price for example - few people have the life skills for these things anymore. We are all used to going to the 'shop', being 'served' by impersonal drones everywhere - and even more by automated systems - not having to make any human contact. We have lost the ability of having to deal with other humans directly. Having to argue for a point and compromise and understand where the other person is coming from and find a common ground which leads away from conflict and doesnt harm the community. In a future world 'other people' aren't going to be strangers anymore - people who you can ignore, or anger and run away. You might have to live with the person as neighbour for the rest of your life (and we all know how well we get on with our neigbours).

People come together in a crisis only in movies. Civilized (non communal) people aren't used to tragedy - they don't know how to deal with it - because they don't have to - because our civilization allows us to ignore tragedy - bypass it - buy it off. In a tribal community, it is a tragedy if a weather event wipes out your regular food supply for weeks - and you have to go by eating roots meanwhile - a tragedy which the people accept and deal with in a human way: they come together, help each other and suffer together. But in our society a shortage is unacceptable: there must be 'solution' for it - and rather than deal with it as a tragedy of life - we deal with is as a crisis - an emergency which breaks us down into individuals trying to survive on their own. And that leads to what is known as 'tragedy of the commons' problem. In communal societies a 'tragedy' isn't 'a problem' - its part of life.

The point about GPS is important. Our civilization is very good at finding the resources to maintain its technological systems - as I said its only engineering - a problem you can solve by throwing resources and money at it. The last tank full of fuel for the German tanks in the eastern front was painstakingly extracted from coal, even as the population starved and soldiers themselves had to supply themselved by pillaging. And so did too the easter islanders concentrate all their resources on hauling ever bigger statues to the beach to appeace the gods even as their society and way of life where crumbing away in an ecological catastophy. That is the how GPS or the electric grid will go too. They are relatively resient systems - and we will always find a bit of money to throw at them to not allow them to fail - even when we take the money away from things that might save us in the long run. A program for promoting and implementing communally managed and distributed non-irrigated no-till organic agriculture is something we will never see the point of putting our time and resources on - because arguing for it requires deep analysis of complex systems (understanding peak-oil, understanding NPK problem, understanding soil-heath, soil-salination, water table behaviour...). Whereas arguing for launching a satellite to keep GPS working is self-evident to all - if you want these and these systems which rely on GPS to remain functioning - you WILL find the money for it...

The point about technology being kind to magic is irrelevant. Technology is easy. We know how to do it - and dutifully we apply it to every problem. What we don't know how to do is live as sustainable harmonious communities - because there is no gadget for that - they is no tech solution for that - you actually have to work hard on a human level to achieve that - and I'm afraid we've lost the aptitude to do anything on a human level a long time ago...

So my plan would 'rely' on things like a working electricity grid or GPS - because I'm pretty sure civilization will keep them functioning till the end in a slow collapse scenario. And so instead of worrying about being independent from the grid and wasting all my time and resources to achieve such - I can concentrate on the difficult long term problems: how do I gather and empower a community around me which will one day be able to function with each other on a human level - as well as without the grid and GPS. How they do it, be it solar panels or anything is irrelevant. If you cannot solve the human problem first - then all your technological problems are moot.