As noted below, it helps to look at real numbers regarding net export declines in countries like Mexico, which has so far shown an accelerating net export decline rate in the four year period from 2004 to 2008. If memory serves, their production decline rate over this time period has been about -5%/year with consumption increasing at a little over +2%/year. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next four years.

In any case, by the end of 2014, our best case is that the top five net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia; Russia; Norway; Iran and the UAE--will have shipped about half of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports. This is the theme of our next paper--the fact that the bulk of post-peak cumulative net exports are shipped early, e.g., Indonesia shipped half of their post-1996 cumulative net oil exports in slightly over two years, as they went from their final production peak in 1996 to net oil importer status in 2004.