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185 comments on Financial Collapse and Energy - Something Other than a NINJA Problem
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185 comments on Financial Collapse and Energy - Something Other than a NINJA Problem
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GAIA Host Collective
Does this article imply that I should covert my paper money into hard assets before everyone tries to convert theirs (red line to blue).
Logically, you should buy physical assets and sell financial assets now, while everyone else thinks are recovery is underway.
There are several risks, however:
1. You may have to move (no water, no jobs, lack of locally grown food) and you won't be able to take the assets with you, or sell them.
2. The assets won't last over time. Food spoils; termites get into wood; fresh water is hard to keep clean in adequate quantity.
3. Having more assets makes you a target for those without assets, possibly increasing risk to your physical person.
I think it is probably worthwhile to change your attitude as much as possible that toward "Not having all these assets is OK, I can do without."
I am pretty much in deflation camp, but I acknowledge that TPTB probably can delay/prevent it if so they choose (before lowering interest rates, now QE, etc..).
Of course, they are cautious not to overheat the system, as they too know that oil has peaked and life $200 oil would kill the economy again.
The article itself is good, one just has to bear in mind that it is prety much impossible to defend against TPTB. Our JIT economic system will function until it won't and when it fails it is likely that no hard assets will be of any help, farming land included.
I agree with that, I live in the UK, we have a saying "as safe as the Bank of England" which is meant to imply 'as safe as you can get'.
The Bank of England issues our currency, the 'Pound Sterling' - the pound it refers to is one pound in weight of Sterling Silver (an alloy of 92.5% Silver and other metals).
Our paper currency is a receipt for this silver, so a twenty pound note is a receipt for twenty pounds of silver that was once deposited with the bank (in those days it maybe represented twenty years wages). Today, twenty pounds of silver is worth somewhere in the region of £3000 (about two months wages, such inflation!), but a twenty pound note will only get you around two OUNCES of silver, not twenty pounds.
Somebody has stolen 318 ounces ( >99%) of the original silver that was deposited, as it was deposited in the Bank of England it must be somebody in there! Does the Bank of England sound safe to you? Have faith in our Banking system!
"Our JIT economic system will function until it won't and when it fails it is likely that no hard assets will be of any help, farming land included."
This would seem to go against the thinking of many Peak Oilers who believe that a piece of farmland, the Doomstead, is going to save them. Why dont you think farming land will be of help?
Gail,these comments could have been written by a farmer as a cautionary tale for those who want to believe that getting back to the land is a realistic goal-ESPECIALLY those who get thier info from pollyanna websites and think that we can produce like Chinese and Korean peasants ,evidently,just because we are Yankees.
We lost our peaches and nearly all of our apples to a late frost this year.We lost our cherries over the last three days due to unusually heavy rains.They just kept swelling up until they burst,less than two weeks before the harvest would have started.
And we live in an area long noted as exceptionally well suited to these crops.We are fortunately diversified in a way not possible on a very small acreage,and we will not lose everything-at least we never have.
Buying a farm now could easily turn into a disaster, especially for those of use who have little idea what would be needed to actually produce food in adequate quantity to feed a family and store if for winter months. The more I think about the problems, the more I admire our ancestors and their ability to get along without fossil fuels.
I have always been of the opinion that the minds of the past were better than of the present..............they had to be.
Not buying a farm is higher risk. If food is short, any additional food is a direct benefit. In addition, I have not materially impacted my fitness. Productive land is a hedge. My venture may fail, but my odds increase.
Gail, don't take this personally, but your logic sounds to me like an excuse. Inaction is a valid option if the benefits outweigh the liabilities. In your case this may be true, but bashing farming is illogical. How is your food supply more secure in a city full of strangers?
My guess is that you judge the marginal increased fitness of farming as insufficient. I agree, but all other options I can find are worse.
Cold Camel
It is interesting for me to find this debate here since I've gone over this territory with my husband now for a few years (with me arguing for a farm and he, a person who really dislikes dirt, arguing against).
I think it's worth examining his point. My husband argues that you don't need to run to a farm for cover. What you want to do is always have what other people will pay for. Maybe you have some doctoring skills or maybe you can sell things or maybe you can write or teach or design or sing......whatever. The point is to spot where you can compete using your talents and then throw yourself into this wholeheartedly. If the market changes you have to be quick to adapt, but if you are good then you may be able to compete well.
There will always be an elite (non-producers) and my husband's idea is to be included among them as they "circulate" (Pareto's term) since he hates anything that involves lifting a shovel. I think he'd rather be a really starving used book dealer than a well-fed farmer.
The governments of the world are trying to slow down the collapse process as much as they can in order to 1) avoid chaos and panic and 2) give the elites a chance to "circulate" naturally in a new lower energy based society. When I say elites I mean all non-producers, that is shopkeepers, librarians, teachers, office workers, etc. Almost all of us are elites these days.
I personally can understand both positions: the escape to the farm or the desire to stay and fight for ones position.
If you love working the land and love animals then the farm is for you!
But if you really hate that life, it might be a bad choice.
BTW: To read more about medieval Spain and moneylending try a great novel CATHEDRAL OF THE SEA by Ildefonso Falcones. The author is a lawyer who uses his vast knowledge of legal (and other) history to portray Barcelona and its surrounding area in the 1300s. For those who are PO aware (I think Falcones may be) this novel is a special TREAT because these old laws are so often concerned with food (energy) through the use of land for grazing etc. There is so much intricate knowledge of money, foreign currency trading, land use, grain markets, etc displayed (but in a fun way) that I promise you will be vastly entertained. Also of course there is a lot of horror--the prejudice against Jews and the Spanish Inquistion (does local have to mean narrow-minded? Isn't there another way?) the cruelty of the feudal lord (must they be so nasty or did being nice mean being weak?)...
The whole novel is a picture of what it means to compete in a city (where you obviously can't be a farmer for lack of land). The hero, Arnau, manages to succeed but there is a lot of luck involved so I don't know how realistic this is.
Forget your PO worries and get totally into this novel where someone else's PRE-OIL worries will provide great vicarious thrills and food for thought!
I too am currently reading a book about cathedrals and medieval times. It's called Pillars of the Earth. At each turn in the book it becomes painfully obvious how oil has dramatically changed our way of life.
I think you are married to my brother.
My perspective, that if I can't sell it, I can eat it, comes from my grandfather, but your (husband's) arguements are certainly valid, as is your conclusion that if you don't like dirt, don't become a farmer.
The challenge for all of us is to be quick on our toes, farmer or not. Market conditions can render the best plans invalid. I recommend "Farmer Boy" from the "Little House on the Prairie" series as an example of the random nature of profits. That book paints a positive picture of farming, the rest of the series portrays a more realistic and negative view. The key is never to be left redundant.
I have lots of potential routes to take with my land, none of which are currently economically viable. The same is true for your husband's plan, his out of the mainstream lifestyle isn't economically viable, so really, we're both full of it. Ah, well, back to the grindstone.
Cold Camel
You are right, oldfarmer, and your comments appreciated. But we don't have any other options that are more appealing. A little food is better than no food. I'd rather be puttering around on dirt than rioting on the streets because the stores were empty.
Cold Camel
I remember watching a program some time back about a town in the US where they had a plaque dedicated to a local farmer who was long dead. The reason he got the plaque was one year all the crops failed in the local area except on his farm (something to do with his elevation above sea level was mentioned) and what he produced was enough to keep the town from starving till the next spring.
The next Hero might be the past hero.
Well said oldfarmermac.
I do not live in USA but exhausted soils was fairly typical for US up to middle of 20thC until farming found the industrial alternatives. Jackman and Long, 1964, in The Oregon Desert, give a sympathetic and entertaining account of the brief 'homesteading' boom in that part of the country during the first years of the last century. Teachers, clerks, fit young folk, found, alongside some personal tragedies, some good romance and socializing and played some good baseball apparently, and I guess the kids had memorable childhoods, but there is hardly a trace left in the ground.
I guess the Chinese and Korean peasants will still be around. Even they are not self-sufficient and need these days some industrial N fertilizer and sufficient regional/system 'insurance' against inevitable local failures. March larger regional system adjustment is required to deal with issues of water or other long term declines.
Having said that, maximising suburban or urban gardening can ensure some healthy nutrition and an attractive environment.
Hi Phil. I wouldn't underestimate the Chinese. They have a command and control society, a largely rural population, and a history of cultivation that goes back before the Europeans were plundering and pillaging each other,
Gail,
point 1.
No water! I am not capable of surviving without modern medicine, if the water goes then I am long dead because other things are gone.
point 2.
Ok, I am growing my own food and have chickens, but, nowhere near enough land to feed myself. Should I convert money into more land?
Point 3.
When things get this bad, see point 1.
I don't want all these assets. Everytime someone tells me to save more for old age I answer "what old age" and "I need less in old age". As you have pointed out in previous posts, I just want to "store" for old age so I can eat without doing the "hunting".
To be honest, it is pointless preparing for WTSHTF because I am only alive because TSH not HTF - figure that one out :-)
Sometimes people here do not realise how dependent they are on modern conveniences.
I'm gone in very short order without not only modern medicine, but relatively intensive healthcare as can be had (in the US) only with sufficient health insurance. Society need not break down for me to go; I need only lose my job.
Hi Gail;
Sound advice. I have no assets or debt. As soon as my partner pays off her small debt we are off to the farm upcountry in N.E Thailand.
Another thing. What do you make of the recent rally in oil prices? What price do you think the battered world economy can entertain before it sets off another downward spiral?
I saw a chart here on TOD a while back showing the world economy topping out and plateauing at $60/bbl, but not starting to drop until about $90/bbl. We're at $65/bbl this morning.
That's been exactly my take on the situation for the past several years now.
Hence, got out of stock funds (liquidated retirement accounts) and put money into things like home insulation, solar panels, good bike, tools for growing food, etc.
Most everyone thought I was nuts and when I tried to explain why (see article above), they thought I was nutter. Not so much anymore.
Great article Pedro.
Good article indeed, and spot on with respect to what's coming. I am a former equities trader (pro) now still trading, but in countdown to the day it becomes pointless. I left the field, left the country and while not having "gone native," exactly, have made great changes in my life. Anyone interested in homesteading in Argentina in a strawbale house, please have a look at www.fromthecatacombs.info
I believe the snowball of financial destrution has come too far down the hill to be stopped now.
Insulation, done that!
Solar panels, 6.84 KwP thanks to FIT in Germany
Bike, of course with trailer.
Growing food, already eating home grown stuff and have chickens.
Electic tools, perfect for the solar panels.
No medicine, I die.
Are you 100% sure. My mother in law had diabetes and was dependant on meducation. I treated her homoeopathically for it, she had a heart attack and when she got out of hospital - no need for diabetes medication, that was 4 years ago. A lot of stuff that doctor's tell you is spin, just like the "fast money" morons.
One of my signatures is: If you want to remain healthy, solvent, and alive, stay away from doctors, pharmacies, and hospitals. Now, of course, I may have a massive collapse a few seconds from now, but this motto has worked for me for over 30 years (and near three score and ten years, I take no pharmaceuticals, I use herbs and natural "medicines" when necessary, and haven't taken so much as an aspirin for many years).
I rather think that many Americans are almost totally neurotic, whimper and run to the doctor for many mostly imaginary ills, load themselves down with prescriptions, and think of the health disaster system as their mother.
You're living in a cocoon of youth and hubris. Just wait a few more years.
Well Speedy I'm a chemist dunno what medicine your taking but if patent enforcement weakens a lot of medicines will be readily available.
Of course if you think we are going to have total collapse its a no go.
But depending on the details many can be synthesized in any well equipped lab.
Obviously its something else I've thought about post peak.
Does not mean that medical research will advance but there is no intrinsic reason to lose most of our drugs as long as things stay reasonably stable somewhere in the world.
Obviously one of the big exports from these stable regions will be drugs.
I'm so thankful I got a chemistry degree even though I've not really used it all that much its always been something thats been really nice to have.
In a normal economy it gives me the option of becoming a lab tech of some sort with reasonable pay and basically 9-5 type working condition to focus on other aspects of life. If things get interesting a chemist becomes a fairly valuable guy to have around.
Give me some sulfur and I can rule the world :)
There is a famous character here in Toronto, now in jail, who stocked up on bicycles. They were stolen. He likely did not steal them him all himself but he was the market for stolen bikes in Toronto. When he was finally caught he was found to have teens of repositories containing hundreds of bikes. It was reported that he was hoarding bike for the eventual peak oil future.
I was think of investing in a sizable shipment of Brook "Imperial" leather bicycle saddles.