70 comments on Jeff Rubin Talks about Oil and the Economy
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70 comments on Jeff Rubin Talks about Oil and the Economy
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Not if you layer on enough carbon offset taxes and cap&trade fees. And how high do those taxes and fees need to be? Well, carbon cycle models show humans contribute 3% of all CO2 released into the biosphere annually. So if you wanted to make a significant dent in that 3%, say a 2/3 dent, how high would new taxes and fees need to be for you, for me and for all our neighbors to reduce our driving, home heating and the like by 2/3 (67%)? That's going to be a tremendous amount of government taxes and fees added to the current cost of transport. That would certainly motivate me to relocate manufacturing operations closer to my local markets. The result of such draconian measures would need to be coordinated world-wide in order to reduce CO2 emissions by net 2%. What do you think would be the impact on world economies? societies? living standards? What do think would be the net reduction in CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere over 5 years? 10 years? 30 years? 50 years? Here's the scale of the pay off:
http://www.forexyard.com/reuters/popup_reuters.php?action=2009-05-28T222...
Well first of all, the chances of carbon taxes that high are essentially zero. Its never going to happen. Rationing and laws on usage would come first.
Second, if you did have all those new carbon taxes the cost of goods would rocket and so would wage demands in your home market. Who's going to bring manufacturing 'home' to even higher wage demands?
Manufacturing, of new big LCD TVs say, is going to stay where wages are low and regulation lax. The cost of shipping is not significant enough to change that balance.