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27 comments on More thoughts from Pedro Prieto on NINJA Financial Issues and Energy
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27 comments on More thoughts from Pedro Prieto on NINJA Financial Issues and Energy
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GAIA Host Collective
You know, I get criticized all the time for diving too deep into the math and not keeping it at a level that doesn't cause MEGO. Yet, I think what Pedro is trying to do is quite reasonable. Here is the relevant point:
Of course his 45 degree slope could be true depending on how he chose his units. I think his point was to show how it diverges from this linear relationship, and in a language that perhaps more people can understand.
I don't know if this was absolutely his intent, but my hair is not on fire over it.
If that's the relationship he wants to discuss, why isn't it the one graphed? Why are the axes energy vs. gdp instead of manufacturing output vs. gdp? Or, since you're including services, perhaps non-financial gdp vs. overall gdp.
The two values he said were 1:1 related aren't even linearly related. There's no reasonable way to change the units to fix that.
The curve he graphed has a constantly-decreasing slope, and looks roughly like e^(-1/x). Sure, graphing -1/x vs. ln(y) will give a straight line, but that's not any kind of meaningful comparison.
If he's trying to show there's no linear relationship, then perhaps he should not say there is one:
"If I take the consumption of primary energy and compare it with GDP, what I observe is almost a one to one relationship (almost a straight line)"
He also shouldn't be begging the question by completely ignoring efficiency gains:
"The fact that there has been a change in the measuring system over time is probably the reason why there is now a difference between the growth of primary energy sources and the growth in GDP"
This argument does not read like a conclusion of the evidence; it reads like a preconceived notion with some largely-irrelevant numbers tacked on.
***
As an aside, is there any reason every new graph in this sequence is getting its own article? There have been three articles on the same discussion in half a week, and the latter two appear to be minor additions without enough to justify a new article - witness how they have only a handful of comments (currently 14 each). It seems as though keeping the pieces of this discussion together would be more productive.
Pitt,
You have pointed out some rather large differences between what Pedro thinks should be happening and the actual data, just an illustration of; "why let the facts spoil a good theory"
Data shows that can have increasing GDP growth with very little growth in energy use.